Northwestern's Lake the Posts answers my questions...
Northwestern is just under 24 hours away from kickoff. I'll give you my regular preview soon but wanted to break out the Q&A into a separate post. Lake the Posts was kind enough to give me some very candid answers to a few simple questions as we all get ready for the game tomorrow morning.
1. The big news this week is that Tyrell Sutton is out and C.J. Bacher is likely out. What can we expect from Kafka and Conteh on Saturday?
Unfortunately, Sutton was out a large chunk of last year and Conteh was a serviceable replacement. However, Omar has been much more of a horizontal runner this year and less vertical, meaning he was much more physical and pounding last year. Our O-line has been great for pass protection but is not opening up big holes. Sutton's loss is felt on the screen pass as he was an exceptional receiver and this is where the drop-off is felt bigtime. Kafka started in 2006 before Bacher came in as Kafka got hurt with a similar injury. Kafka is a solid running QB in the spread and the general consensus was that he is not as good a passer, but based on Bacher's disappointing season, most fans are anxious to see how he manages the game.
2. When MN traveled to Illinois they were upset because we were the "homecoming opponent." Then we were again at Purdue. Northwestern (and I guess Indiana) are also popular homecoming opponents around the Big Ten. Do you buy this perceived disrespect or is it a motivational gimmick for the coaches?
More motivational gimmick. Most homecoming dates are made more than a year in advance for planning purposes. And it is also standard for October, in most cases for Homecoming, which usually means one of two choices. When a school, like Iowa, moves Homecoming to September b/c of the Cats, or Minnesota moves it to November, b/c of the Cats it gives a little more credence to the disrespect card in my mind.
3. 7-1 vs. 7-1 would have made this game incredibly exciting. Still 7-1 vs. 6-2 is something nobody would have predicted in August and is vitally important for both teams. Tell me why this game is more important for Northwestern than it is for Minnesota.
Easy. Prior to the Indiana game, the consensus was the bar at NU had been raised to mean 6-6 will forever be disappointing for NU fans under Fitz. Those chats were being had thinking an absolute worst case scenario was 8-4 for us this year. Now, we will likely be underdogs in every game. A 6-6 finish or even 7-5 doesn't do much to elevate the program in the media's eyes, it impacts attendance, which is a slow build until we get really good and it can impact recruiting. The positive momentum of the 2008 campaign, that is a foundation for the next several years, is in jeopardy. It also will be a major statement for our coaching staff in showing their ability to respond to adversity and make a statement that we are fighters. With the annual beat down to the Buckeyes waiting in the wings, a loss to Minnesota likely ensures a three game losing streak heading into the Big House.
4. The biggest area of weakness for the Gopher offense is offensive line. Only Ohio State has given up more sacks and we struggle to open rushing lanes. Northwestern is leading the Big Ten in sacks is this a match up the Wildcats can exploit? Can they gain a big enough advantage that this can lead to a win?
Absolutely it is an area we'll be exploiting, yet Indiana's O-line was in worse shape than yours and it didn't impact the game. Our DE were in the grill of the QB all day, but our pass rush up the middle wasn't there, enabling Ben Chappell to step up in the pocket and throw bombs all day. We simply have to win the TO battle and some key sacks that jar the ball loose to make it the difference. The TO margin of the Gophers is #1 in the nation, so this would be a stretch.
5. Assuming both of these teams go bowling this year. Make a prediction as to which prestigious bowl will invite Minnesota and Northwestern to attend.
I'm going with Minnesota in the Rose Bowl. While I don't believe your as good as say, the 2007 Illini team, you're solid. If you beat us, which I think you will, the game to me is the Iowa game. I keep showing people your schedule and challenging them to pick the loss for you. Then I convince them.
I'll throw in my two cents. First Minnesota is not going to the Rose Bowl. Even with an 11-1 finish and Penn State going to the BCS title game we are not going to Pasadena. I believe that even if Ohio State loses and we are the clear cut #2, they will pick Oklahoma or anybody else over Minnesota. I know Illinois went last year but they at least had a win @ Ohio State on their resume. Our schedule was just too weak and although the Rose Bowl loves their traditional Pac 10 v Big Ten match up they also know USC vs. Minnesota would get terrible ratings compared to USC vs. OK.
Secondly, LTP's answer to #3 made this game sound like it will make or break the Northwestern program for the next decade. I'm telling you Gopher fans, this team is wounded but they are not dead. They will give us a run for our money and we'd better be prepared. Fortunately they have appeared to be mentally ready for everybody we have faced in the first eight games, this better not be the exception or it will be a bad loss.
This week the program is starting to build some momentum and get some recognition by not just the local media but we are on the national media's radar as well. Losing this game would remind everyone that they were right to ignore us for six or seven weeks and we'd drop like a lead balloon. The next three weeks and our bowl destination will take care of itself but we really need to take care of the team in front of us this week.
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Comments
rose bowl aspirations
don’t you think the rags to riches storyline of the gophers this year would be an intriguing storyline for a rose bowl against the vaunted USC machine?
plus I don’t like oklahoma in the rose bowl because stoops has been laying eggs in bcs games for the last what 3 or 4 years now?
If we win out, I think it would be much more interesting to the country than you think it would be, I mean out of nowhere team from the middle of nowhere with no big names against the USC juggernaut…if people don’t watch with that story line when are they ever going to watch?
by tubbytime20 on Oct 31, 2008 12:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
if people don’t watch with that story line when are they ever going to watch?
When there’s a reasonable chance of the game being competitive. Minnesota against USC would not be.
Given your schedule (joke non-conference, not playing two of the top three of the other 10 Big Ten teams, and getting beaten badly by the other one), I don’t think there’s much realistic chance for an at-large for Minnesota in the BCS – you’ll have to get it with the auto-bid. Remember Illinois only made it because there weren’t any other reasonable options (Boston College? Arizona State?) for BCS bids, and they at least had a huge win at OSU. As things stand right now, the Big XII and SEC will pick up two of the at-large spots, and one non-BCS team will get there for sure; I think unless all the non-BCS teams fall apart, a second one would get chosen before Minnesota for the last spot. If you played MSU or PSU and won, that probably wouldn’t be the case, but when the best win on the schedule is at Illinois …
(Similarly, I don’t think Michigan State has any chance of an at-large unless they beat Penn State. Best win being Notre Dame, or maybe Iowa, isn’t going to get the job done.)
by SpartanDan on Oct 31, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
easy Sparty
we did at least up up a fight AT Columbus as opposed to a 45-7 shellacking at home. So slow down with your “that probably wouldn’t be the case” in a MSU match up. Playing Cal strengthened your schedule (as it will ours next year) but losing doesn’t help you one bit. I’ll take a win over a crappy MAC team rather than a loss to anybody.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Oct 31, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you misunderstood
The “that probably wouldn’t be the case” meant the Gophers getting passed over for a second non-BCS team, not a “you wouldn’t beat us, so it’s moot”. If you played either MSU or PSU and won, I think you’d have a decent case for a BCS at-large. But I think there’s too much anti-Big Ten sentiment for a team that hasn’t beaten anyone at all to get in. (True, Kansas got in anyway last year despite their best regular-season win probably being a mediocre Oklahoma State team, but the Big XII doesn’t have the same kind of stigma that the Big Ten, fairly or not, has gotten. And they absolutely hammered pretty much everyone they played.)
I have no idea who would win if MSU and Minnesota played. Minnesota’s been extremely opportunistic this year with turnovers; while it’s hard to characterize that as “luck”, turnovers tend to have a higher variance than any other aspect of the game, and on yardage you guys are about a net zero on the year (between offense and defense). In such a hypothetical matchup, if MSU protects the ball I think they win comfortably, but that’s a pretty significant “if”.
by SpartanDan on Oct 31, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough
agreed, we’ll never get in to a BCS game this year. But it’d be nice to get to 11-1 and make them tell us we aren’t allowed into their party. It’d give this team something to fight for next year.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Oct 31, 2008 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
thats a big if by the way when saying “if we win out”
I’m not counting my eggs before they hatch trust me we have four games ahead of us
I was just saying hypothetically
by tubbytime20 on Oct 31, 2008 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
big IF is correct
but there is just no way they would intentionally put together a match up where the line would be USC -28. After what USC did to Illinois last year and Ohio State this year it would easily be the lowest rated BCS game in the BCS era. 6.98 share is currently the least watched BCS game (L’vill v Wake in 2006-07), barely ahead of Georgia v Hawaii (7.00) which was also a disaster of a game.
It would be an incredible story but really the biggest hurdles would be PSU in the title game and OSU getting another loss.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Oct 31, 2008 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll be happy with...
…the Capital One Bowl and playing LSU. We can’t play ourselves into the Rose Bowl—we need other teams to play themselves out of it—not to mention we need to win out which I don’t think will happen. But that is what I’m cheering for.
GO GOPHERS!!!
3 games left in the history of Gophers football at the Dome.
by rencito on Oct 31, 2008 1:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What I hope people don't forget
If we don’t win out(which is VERY likely) and go to a lesser bowl, we should remember where we were 13 weeks prior. Most had an optimistic view with new talent and new DC, but no one with any sense was predicting that we could have a double digit win season. And here we are. I hope the gophers make a bowl that matches the effort that Brewster’s boys have put in during the offseason and inseason. Go gophers! Beat NU!!!!
by MinnMarchDTF on Oct 31, 2008 2:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We need more comments like this ...
… to keep expectations reasonable.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room.
by PJS on Oct 31, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
we don't have to win out
for a good bowl game. While I think we have NO shot at the Rose Bowl, I think we have some room for error to still get a Jan 1 bowl.
Assume PSU gets into title game and OSU gets Rose Bowl. That leaves two open Jan. 1 bowls for Big Ten teams. MN, MSU, NU and Iowa are the only four teams with a realistic shot at them. Ill currently has only three losses but would each have to run the table (plays OSU) to get a Jan. 1 bowl.
NU – has a couple losses on their schedule meaning they are the least likely to get a Jan. 1
Iowa – likely loss to PSU gives them three conference losses which makes things tough.
MSU – likely loss to PSU gives them two, they are most likely to get a Jan. 1 bowl.
Minn – Iowa and NU appear to be the key games. Win those two and we can certainly afford 1 loss, maybe even a second.
Beating NU and Iowa are the key games, win those and then split with
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Oct 31, 2008 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If OSU wins out
do you really think that thye will be chosen as an at large for the BCS? I would think that the two at large bids would come from the B12 and SEC.
We may win out and find ourselves in San Antonio (only because they could not pass on us for contractual reasons).
by Kelly Leeks on Oct 31, 2008 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes I do
the Rose Bowl wants to maintain the Pac 10 / Big Ten tradition when possible. Ohio State is good enough that there would be no shame in taking them over the second best Big 12 team. A USC / OSU rematch with Pryor and Wells in the backfield would be a highly watched game. I know from a BCS standpoint OSU may not deserve to be an at large team but the Rose Bowl likes to be different.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Oct 31, 2008 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are four at-large spots
One will almost certainly be filled by a non-BCS team, as there’s no way the Big East champ (and probably not the ACC champ) is high enough to finish ahead of the top non-BCS team and prevent them from getting an automatic (and if they finish top 12, the highest non-BCS team gets an auto anyway). The Big XII and SEC will each get one, clearly. But there are no viable candidates from the Pac-10 at this point (although if Oregon State wins out, they’ll get the auto and USC will be a viable candidate), and pretty much no chance of a second ACC or Big East team. It comes down to a second Big Ten team or a second non-BCS team; as long as there’s any reason to believe the Big Ten team would be competitive (as I said above, this is where Minnesota’s schedule is really likely to hurt them because of the perception of the Big Ten and not playing two of their three fellow contenders) the Big Ten team probably gets the invite (especially if the Rose Bowl slot is freed up by Penn State making the title game, but even the other BCS games are likely to take a Big Ten team over a second non-BCS team).
If OSU wins out, they’re pretty much a lock to get chosen (unless MSU or Minnesota claims the automatic bid; then PSU probably gets the at-large).
by SpartanDan on Nov 1, 2008 12:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
USC vs. ?
we have to wait until the BCS and the rest of the season plays itself out to start judging the true possibility of the rose bowl but all I’m saying is that low ratings could be the case with any team that plays USC so why not the gophers? oklahoma has done horrible in bowl games (if they stay in the top 8 of the BCS) all I’m saying is before you write off the rose bowl wait for the rest of the season and other teams in front of us to lose (which they will) and hopefully for us to win out
at least we wouldn’t be some 3 loss team like illinois (I’d take wins over bad teams and a final record of 11-1 than losing at iowa like they did last year and beating ohio state)
by tubbytime20 on Oct 31, 2008 2:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
there is a lot of season left
but still, on paper Oklahoma vs. USC is much more appealing to your average NCAA fan. Minn vs. USC appeals to nobody outside the borders of Gopher Nation.
Like I said in an above comment, let’s win out and make them refuse our invitation.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Oct 31, 2008 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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