Rankings Ratings and Rantings

by GopherNation on Jan 12, 2009 4:44 PM CST Comment 7 comments

For the fun of it I thought I'd throw out a snapshot of where the Gopher's are ranked in various polls. Each ranking and rating has a different method of calculation and all of them are meaningless.

	Minnesota National Rank	Minn rank among B10 Teams	Brief Description of Ranking
AP	18	2	72 media votes
ESPN/USA Today	17	2	31 coach's votes
KenPom Rank	47	3	efficiency stats, more of a predictor
RPI	20	3	complicated NCAA formula using SOS and record vs. other top teams
Lundardi RPI	5	1	Joe Lunardi's tweak of the RPI
Sagarin	33	6	Computer ranking similar to RPI but different!
Blog Poll	21	2	some of the most brilliant college basketball minds collaborating for a prestigious top 25

Clearly we can all agree that the Lunardi RPI is the most accurate representation of who the best teams are in the country. I am one who finds these rankings to be interesting and fun to talk about. Getting your team ranked is valuable for discussions at the bar and on the surface level comparing team x to team y. But we all know this means very little on January 12th. Even the rankings on March 15th (selection Sunday) do not mean a whole heck of a lot as teams that are media or coach ranked can and do miss out on the NCAA tournament.

What stands out to me is we average out to be the #2 ranked team in the conference. I realize that Purdue is struggling and Wisconsin is anything but unbeatable but I just do not feel as though this team is destined to have the #2 seed in the conference tournament.

I think I've said it before, I'll say it now and I'll probably say it many times again. I really like this Gopher team but I just do not see them as a Sweet 16 caliber team. On the surface I see this team one that doesn't make it to the second weekend of the tourny. It is realy impossible to predict something like this and foolish to try because matchups and results of the other games will ultimately mean more than anything else. But I'll stick to my guns that "on the surface" this is not a Sweet 16 caliber team (this year).

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Each week I have been voting in the college hoops blog poll. Rarely have I posted my ballot or the end result. But below is my ballot for you to pick apart.

Duke	1
Pittsburgh	2
Wake Forest	3
North Carolina	4
Oklahoma	5
Connecticut	6
Michigan State	7
Clemson	8
UCLA	9
Syracuse	10
Gonzaga	11
Texas	12
Notre Dame	13
Georgetown	14
Purdue	15
Arizona State	16
Marquette	17
Xavier	18
Minnesota	19
Baylor	20
Villanova	21
Butler	22
Illinois	23
Louisville	24
Wisconsin	25

Now rant...

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Comments

Can someone explain to me

How in Lunardi’s latest projection we fell to an 8 seed from a 6 seed the previous week. I know it means nothing this early in the season but I don’t get how two conference wins and beating Penn State by 20 drops us two seeds. We are #18 in the AP and our RPI is 21. I don’t see how that is an 8 seed. I just hope we don’t get shafted like this when it is for real.

by duckman86 on Jan 12, 2009 6:13 PM CST reply actions

He Wanted To Match Minnesota And Kentucky

So he moved Gophers down 2 and UK up 2 to do so.

by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 13, 2009 6:17 AM CST up reply actions

My hypothesis

I was wondering the same thing. I do know this: at this point in the season, Lunardi doesn’t take the teams as they are right now—it is too early. In other words, he doesn’t assume the season ends today. He will assume that in a month or so as the standings start to take form. The reason he doesn’t assume that teams will end where they are now is because the small sample size of conference play. For instance, North Carolina would finish last in the ACC. Obviously, this won’t happen.

Instead, he is adding his own conjecture to it. He is predicting Minnesota to fall a little closer to the middle of the pack in the Big 10. I thought he had them a little too high at #6 before, so I think #8 was probably a correction. Perhaps he watched that dreadful Iowa game (it was on ESPN) and decided there is no way we are going to be a #6 seed. But if we win in Wisconsin on Thursday, I’m sure you will see a big jump for the Golden Gophers.

Also, I’ve been on the Minnesota/Kentucky 1st round watch for a long time now. It definitely could happen and will happen if the seeds work out. However, lets not forget about the other story line out there. If we finish with a high enough seed, the selection committee could pit us against our old pal Dan Monson from Long Beach State. They are currently leading the Big West at 4-0. If LBSU continues playing well, they could end up as a #13 seed. If the Gophers have a good showing in Big 10 play, we could find ourselves as a #4 creating this matchup. This is obviously optimistic, but not out of the realm of possibility. So let me be the first to call out the Gophers/49ers watch.

by rencito on Jan 13, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions

I don't understand...

In Joe Lunardi "Bracketology he has the Gophers moving down with two wins this week and Kentucky moving up two spots with one loss and one win. He has Minnesota at the 8th spot and Kentucky at the 9th spot. I just don’t understand this at all. Kentucky has four losses, one of them a team that Minnesota beat, they aren’t even ranked in the top 25 nor did they get any votes and they are ranked one spot lower than the Gophers?
I just think sportwriters want the Gophers and Kentucky to play each other so badly they they will print anything. I would love to see them match up, but not a first round game. If the Gophers play Kentucky they will win. Kentucky plays nothing but a man-to-man defense and won’t go out of it. A good point guard like Nolen will kill them. But I’ll bet ya almost all the of major sportswriters want Kentucky to beat the Gophers.

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