Wisconsin Week by the Numbers, Part 3

 
 In Part 1 and Part 2 of my Wisconsin week analysis, the offenses and defenses for Minnesota and Wisconsin were compared.  Here's a summary of how both teams fared:

 The statistical disparities that could be factors tomorrow are the average Minnesota passing game versus the weak Wisconsin pass defense, and the average Minnesota rushing game versus the strong Wisconsin rushing defense.  For predictive purposes, these two differences basically cancel each other out.

Here's a comparison of points scored for both teams versus the averages for their opponents:

 Wisconsin has outscored their opponents' average foe by about 30%, while Minnesota has outscored their opponents' average opponent by 14%.  Granted, Minnesota has faced tougher competition.  Still, add in that Wisconsin has thrown 8 TD with only 2 INTs while Minnesota has thrown 6 TD with 5 INTs, and this statistic bodes well for the Wisconsin offense.

Here's how the defenses compare for average points allowed:

Minnesota has allowed 31% fewer points than the opposing offenses have averaged, while Wisconsin has allowed 17% fewer points than the average opposing offense has scored.

Tying all three of the Wisconsin Week Preview articles together, both teams appear to be nothing less than evenly matched.  I would be surprised if tomorrow's matchup is a lopsided victory for either team.  Prior to the start of the season, I predicted a final score of 20-18 in favor of the Gophers.  This score would be in line with all of the graphs and charts from this series of articles, so I'll stick with it.  Gophers win by 2.