Four Losses, Four Wins, Forward

by Buck Bravo on Oct 26, 2009 11:36 AM CDT Comment 13 comments

4-4 is about as ordinary a record as a team could have. Not a losing team, nor a winning team, but just a team that's right there in the middle of the pack. Prior to the season there were reports that Minnesota had the 5th most difficult schedule in college football. Now, critics have forgotten about schedule strength and instead focus upon four losses and consecutive flops against Penn State and Ohio State. How difficult has the schedule actually been? Is the criticism of the program for the four losses justified? Let's work backwards through the losses:

Ohio State 38 - Minnesota 7

Minnesota's offense looked lost, the defense broke down in the second half, and once again Minnesota was a doormat for Ohio State (6-2) in Columbus. The offense appeared helpless and hopeless. Running backs were met behind the line of scrimmage, and receivers were unable to catch the few balls that were thrown to them accurately.

At 13.1 points per game allowed, Ohio State has the 7th best defense in all of college football. Sure, the Gophers could have had a better showing. While there were several mistakes made by the Gophers that are worthy of criticism, there is no way that the Gophers should have been expected to win this game.

Penn State 20 - Minnesota 0

Shutouts are an offensive coordinator's worst nightmare. A few words that many critics used to sum up the Gophers' offensive performance versus Penn State (7-1): horrid, abysmal, terrible, inept, impotent. Only 37 yards rushing and 138 total yards. But wait, because at only 8.9 points allowed per game Penn State has the best defense in the entire country.

This past Saturday, Michigan fans were excited to face Penn State at home after running up the score against lowly Delaware State to a final tally of 63-6. Michigan had 461 yards rushing and 727 total yards. How did they fare against the Nittany Lions? A modest 110 yards rushing, 250 total yards and 10 points. Penn State has an NFL-caliber defense, and proved their merit by slaughtering both the Wolverines and the Gophers in subsequent weeks. Joe Paterno's squad easily defeated Minnesota by 20 points and Michigan by 25 points due to his impenetrable defense.

Minnesota could have had a better showing, but once again victory would have been an unrealistic expectation.

Wisconsin 31 - Minnesota 28

Minnesota's three point loss to Wisconsin (5-2) at home may be the one game with an unexpected result. Wisconsin has a good record at 5-2, but three of those wins came against the likes of Wofford, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois. Wisconsin's solid game plan and bruising running attack were the differences in this game. If Minnesota had pulled this game out, they would be 5-3 and looking forward to a winning season. Unfortunately, they lost a close one.

California 35 - Minnesota 21

California (5-2) entered the contest as the 8th ranked team in the country. Minnesota played the 8th ranked team in the country on the same weekend that Wisconsin played Wofford and Michigan played Eastern Michigan. California's Jahvid Best ran for 5 touchdowns and Minnesota lost by 14 points, but the Gophers did enter the fourth quarter in a tie with the Golden Bears. Once again, California is not a team that Minnesota should have been expected to beat.

Despite two very poor showings against Oregon and USC for their only losses, California has been an offensive dynamo this season scoring 49 against Washington State, 45 points against UCLA, 59 points against Eastern Washington, and 52 points against Maryland. A loss that Minnesota should have been expected to take.

The Bottom Line

Let's not forget about the games that Minnesota has won. Syracuse has a losing record at 3-4, but all of their losses have been to quality opponents. Air Force is also 4-4 but only lost to 8th ranked TCU by three points, Navy by three points, and 19th ranked Utah in overtime. Northwestern is 5-3, and Purdue upset Ohio State last week despite an otherwise disappointing 3-5 record.

Yes, Minnesota's offense has underperformed. Yes, there have been unnecessary penalties and some discipline issues. But besides the loss to Wisconsin, the record should be somewhat in line with expectations considering the strength of the opponents. You must compare apples to apples, and this season's schedule is nothing like the non-conference creampuff buffets of years past.

Record alone is not a fair measure of success. Glenn Mason had the best showing of his ten year tenure with a 9-3 season in 2003, but included in those nine wins were victories over Troy, Tulsa, Ohio, and Louisiana-Lafayette. Minnesota did not defeat a single ranked team that year, and were blown out by 20th ranked Iowa by a score of 40-22 to finish the season. Several areas of Gopher football may warrant criticism in 2009, but their 4-4 record is much better than it appears to be.

I reiterate my stance from prior posts: If Minnesota can defeat either Michigan State or Illinois along with South Dakota State, the season should be considered respectable at 6-6. A 7-5 record would be reason for celebration.

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I think everyone has to admit

Brewster is one heck of an operator.

By getting a job with a new stadium, he can argue that he really can’t recruit well until he has TCF’s amenities, but HEY, look at the job I did without them!

By firing his offensive coordinator and switching the offensive scheme, he can argue against getting fired now because he needs time for the scheme to get implemented.

By scheduling teams like Cal, Air Force, and USC, he can claim that the record is worse than before but we’re actually improving, because how am I supposed to beat these teams until I have 5 years to implement my system?

Truly brilliant.

I’ve been all wrong. Sade would be most impressed by this Smooth Operator. I say let him have until 2011. He has a master plan and we should all see it through.

by JG2112 on Oct 26, 2009 12:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

JG2112

not sure what you meant by “until he has TCF’s amenities.” I have been under the assumption that the stadium was complete. Help me out.

by Texas Gopher on Oct 26, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas

not as clear as I could have been. Let’s try this:

By getting a job ~~with a new stadium~~ as the coach of a team playing at Metrodome until 2009, he ~~can argue that he really can’t recruit well until he has TCF’s amenities~~ could argue that from 2007 until TCF Bank Stadium opened that he was recruiting the best he could without the new amenities provided at TCF. ~~, but HEY, look at the job I did without them!~~

by JG2112 on Oct 26, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

thanks—-makes sense.

by Texas Gopher on Oct 26, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

that the gameday coaching has had poor play calling, discipline issues, and some strategic mistakes. Here is why I still maintain that they need to give him 2010:

1. Regardless of performance and development in their freshmen and sophomore seasons, these are the most talented players that have been recruited to the U since at least the 1970s. Not Ohio State or USC level, but better than Wisconsin and most of the second-tier Big Ten teams. Let’s see if they can begin to make a difference as juniors.
2. If they fire him now because “it doesn’t look like he’ll get the job done,” who would ever want to come here as a coach? Stoops and many others have turned us down in the past for “not having a fan base that wants to win.”
3. A perennially losing program that fires a coach after 2 1/2 seasons of rebuilding a team that had an intramural squad as it’s roster in 2007. Sure there are senior contributors, but besides Decker none would make the two-deep at Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan. Why would any reputable coach take a job that has no history of success, just a trail of coaches’ bodies, when he will have a short leash to turn things around. It would be like applying to be the CEO of K-Mart with a two year ultimatum to surpass Walmart.
4. The coaching has been questionable, but no coach has worked harder to promote the program and to try to recruit top players. Personally, I think the defense is playing beyond their physical potential and being coached well but the offense brings the team down.
5. My biggest issue with the timing of the Mason firing was that they didn’t allow him to fail in 2007. He was losing almost all of his talented players and had none to replace them. At least allow Brewster the chance to fail with a miserable record next season, and prove that he is in fact the problem.

There are 3 ways to view the tough schedule that I’ve heard:
1. It’s a waste of time, the team will never be good or get good recruits. Schedule 2nd tier teams and develop untalented players. We’ll always be second tier and need to accept it.
2. We need to drop down to Division 2 so we can be dominant and recruit players with good grades. (seriously, I heard a fan say this)
3. We need to see what happens if we play top teams and try to reach the level of Iowa, Oregon, Texas Tech, etc. Maybe it won’t happen, but I’m in this camp and am tired of watching them play Southeastern Wyoming Technical A & M in the non-conference schedule. I enjoyed watching Jahvid Best play live, even though they could be 5-3 had they scheduled a creampuff.

Buck Bravo

by Buck Bravo on Oct 26, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

valid

points.

by TheEvilProfessor on Oct 26, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Buck

Thanks for the reasoned post, Buck. There are the passionate fans that are in meltdown because they care so strongly and there are the lazy Gophs fans that are just saying, “here we go again”, however, the season is not lost as you so succinctly state. We have solid victories and are on Vegas’ schedule. This weekend is turning into the pivotal game, but 6-6 should not incite a riot. We need to play well this weekend.

We need to play well because we haven’t in the past two games. Prior to the season it was hoped that we could get to 7-5, but one of the keys to that record (including JGrumpy112) was having reasonable showings against the top tier teams, PSU and OSU. We haven’t had that…at all.

There should be a lot of emotions on Saturday eve. Get ’em boys.

by InflectionPoint on Oct 26, 2009 1:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

very reasoned post

I had a similar post and I was ready to put my fingers to the keyboard but this gets to the same point of EXPECTATIONS.

My one problem with the season has nothing to do with the record, we are about where I thought we’d be. But with more talent and depth on the roster I really expected to be at least competitive in the last two games. Instead it was embarrassing. This is no reason to jump off a bridge or declare this a lost season.

The MSU game is HUGE for overall evaluation of the season. 7-5 and a 4-4 Big Ten record is respectable. But after what I’ve seen the last couple weeks I have very little hope for a W on Saturday.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Oct 26, 2009 2:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It is not the record

4-4 does not bother me. It is more about how we have looked on national television the past three weeks. Not only has our offense looked terrible but, even worse, it looks absolutely unexciting to execute. Downright deplorably boooooring. How can the recruits who are playmakers even consider playing for this offense. Here is what Huff and Williams are thinking: Gee, I could go to Minnesota and play in this offense that threw zero passing TDs in the past three games and goes through 8 straight qtrs of scoreless football or I could go to Oregon where they average 38 pts a game. Hmmm.

by Garrick on Oct 26, 2009 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Tangents

We actually were able to run the ball against Ohio State. Take out Weber’s sacks (collegiate official stats count sacks as rushing yards rather than passing yards) and we averaged 5.0 yards carry. Even Whaley and Bennett combined to average over 4.0 yards each time they ran.

Why are we so in love with throwing the ball? How many times did we have a decent gain on 1st down to set up 2nd and 4 and then throw an incompletion to get us to 3rd and 4 followed by another incompletion and punt? I lost track of how many times. At least Haudan got some good work in.

That also gets me to my next point. Weber needs to sit. I was an apologist until now. I know that you cannot put all the blame on him (the o-line deserves some heat, too) but he has been woeful. He misses wide open receivers and even when he does connect the ball is wobbly, behind, and/or short of the receiver. I do realize Gray was playing against backups on the final series, but he just looks like more of a passer than Weber. I didn’t think Gray could run an offense, but Weber has proven that he is not worthy of being the starting QB with his constant inaccuracy.

by rencito on Oct 26, 2009 2:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In the words of Neil Young

“there comes a time” and the time is now to go with the future and that means putting Gray in there.

by Texas Gopher on Oct 26, 2009 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

but I felt bad for Weber in the first half with all those balls bouncing out of our receivers hands.

"they're calling insane hogs???"

by CrowTrobot on Oct 26, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now it's Gray Time?

We are past the time to put Gray in there. He should have been playing in the 3rd quarter of the Penn State game when Weber could not move the ball. Gray is the best RB we have on the team and by far the best QB right now. Let’s not forget that Weber had a couple of chances at that so called 2nd string OSU defense and didn’t do squat. Weber may have been the better QB in training camp, but that has changed with his regression and Weber’s emergence as a good passer. We all knew Gray could run and add that threat, but he hit his receiver in stride so they could gain some YAC, a concept that is completely lost on the innacurate arm of Weber. I say we should start Gray and play him 70% of the time or more and just use Weber to give him a rest. If Brester finishes with 5 wins this year it’s time to send him packing. Being a so-called great recruiter doesn’t help if you are afraid to play your recruits, Weber is simply not getting the job done. We are way past the time for change as Weber has played poorly most of the year.

by Narby on Oct 26, 2009 3:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs