Big Ten projections/tiebreakers
by mraveling on Feb 23, 2009 12:22 PM CST
5 comments
(bumped to the front -- PJS)
With only 3-4 games left per team, it's not too early to think about what could happen over the final two weeks of the Big Ten season. Minnesota is clearly in the mix for the 4-5 game (in which case I think they are a near-lock for the dance) but could also stumble as low as the #7 seed, in which case they probably would need at least two Big Ten tournament wins to get in. I was more confident with the Wisconsin game before but now it is a tossup or even maybe moving slightly in the Badgers favor, especially given the revenge factor.
Here are my projections over the final two weeks:
Michigan State - 14-4 (L @ILL, W - PUR, IA, IND)
Illinois - 13-5 (W MSU, MINN, PSU, win head to head tiebreaker over Purdue)
Purdue - 13-5 (L MSU, W Mich, OSU, NW)
Minnesota - 10-8 (L @ILL, W WISC, MICH, would win #4 seed via head to head among all tied)
Wisconsin - 10-8 (L @MINN, W MICH, IND, win #5 seed via head to head over OSU)
Ohio State - 10-8 (L PUR, W PSU, IA, NW)
Penn State - 9-9 (L ILL, OSU, @IA, W IND)
Michigan - 7-11 (L PUR, @MINN, @WISC)
Northwestern - 6-12 (L PUR, OSU, @IND, W IA)
Iowa - 5-13 (L MSU, OSU, @NW, W PSU)
Indiana - 2-16 (L MSU, PSU, Wisc, W NW)
The two games I am least confident in: Minn vs Wisc (see above), Penn State @ Iowa (I think Iowa will win but Penn State will have their tourney hopes on a thread, this could potentially cause a 4 team tie at 10-8 for places 4-7).
What are your thoughts?
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6 Seed = Roll Again
6 seed plays 11 seed IU. Pretty much gimme W.
by FortyYearCatFan on Feb 23, 2009 3:46 PM CST reply actions
Would hate that matchup
The 6/11 or 7/10 games are the worst case scenario in my opinion. Look at the 6/11 – If they win that game against IU, it’s a game they are supposed to win. If they lose that game (which you can’t discount given the fact the game is at Conseco Fieldhouse and the Gophers escaped with wins twice against the Hoosiers), then that would probably eliminate them from tourney consideration. They would have to beat the #3 seed (Purdue or Illinois) to secure a bid. The 7/10 is worse because they would have to get at least to the semifinals and maybe to the tourney finals to be considered worthy to hop a #5 or #6 big ten team.
A 4/5 matchup is low-risk, because a loss is not considered an upset or bad loss. A win there clinches a bid, and a loss puts them on the bubble but probably in, depending on how seeds #6 and #7 do.
It may be an easy win, but it’s one that wouldn’t count for much. You’re better off getting the 4 or 5 than the 6. If you’re on the good side of the bubble to start with, all you need to do is avoid a bad loss – and you can’t get a bad loss if you’re in the 4-5 game. If you need some help in the tourney, beating Indiana won’t do anything for you, and the other team in the 4-5 game is probably an easier draw than the 3 seed.
Worried about UW me
The Badgers are playing very well right now, except for that huge run that MSU went on last week.
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Not so sure
Based on their crappy play of late I think they’ll lose 1 of those 2 home games and be squarely on the bubble.
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