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Big Ten projections/tiebreakers

(bumped to the front -- PJS)

With only 3-4 games left per team, it's not too early to think about what could happen over the final two weeks of the Big Ten season.  Minnesota is clearly in the mix for the 4-5 game (in which case I think they are a near-lock for the dance) but could also stumble as low as the #7 seed, in which case they probably would need at least two Big Ten tournament wins to get in.  I was more confident with the Wisconsin game before but now it is a tossup or even maybe moving slightly in the Badgers favor, especially given the revenge factor.

Here are my projections over the final two weeks:
Michigan State - 14-4 (L @ILL, W - PUR, IA, IND)
Illinois - 13-5 (W MSU, MINN, PSU, win head to head tiebreaker over Purdue)
Purdue - 13-5 (L MSU, W Mich, OSU, NW)
Minnesota - 10-8 (L @ILL, W WISC, MICH, would win #4 seed via head to head among all tied)
Wisconsin - 10-8 (L @MINN, W MICH, IND, win #5 seed via head to head over OSU)
Ohio State - 10-8 (L PUR, W PSU, IA, NW)
Penn State - 9-9 (L ILL, OSU, @IA, W IND)
Michigan - 7-11 (L PUR, @MINN, @WISC)
Northwestern - 6-12 (L PUR, OSU, @IND, W IA)
Iowa - 5-13 (L MSU, OSU, @NW, W PSU)
Indiana - 2-16 (L MSU, PSU, Wisc, W NW)

The two games I am least confident in: Minn vs Wisc (see above), Penn State @ Iowa (I think Iowa will win but Penn State will have their tourney hopes on a thread, this could potentially cause a 4 team tie at 10-8 for places 4-7).

What are your thoughts?

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