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Does Tubby's Recruiting Class Address the Team's Needs?

As Tubby Smith's Gophers have stumbled down the stretch, a large contingent of the fanbase has relaxed, noting that this is simply a building year. They point to the lack of departing talent at seasons end and to the team's second consecutive nationally competitive recruiting class.

This is a building block year, many say, and the team will take off as Ralph Sampson III, Devoe Joseph, Paul Carter and Colton Iverson grow along with incoming recruits Royce White, Rodney Williams, Trevor Mbakwe and Justin Cobbs.

Maybe. But I'm not sure the new parts fit our needs.

For much of the second half of the Big Ten slate, Coach Smith has forced the ball inside after he figured out that our outside shooters were suspect at best. And if this team has a strength at the moment, it is scoring inside. RSIII has been solid. Colton Iverson has been OK. Damian Johnson has found ways to score inside.

No doubt this team can still be better inside. And Smith's recruiting class addresses that. Let's take the recruits one by one.

Royce White: A 6'7 combo forward, but more of an interior player than a slasher or shooter, White is the most heralded player Smith has brought in so far. Here's what ESPN Insider says.

White is a strong combination forward that plays more like a power forward than a small forward at this point. He is physical around the basket where on the left low block he likes to face and attack the rim along the baseline. White is strong enough to finish through contact when he gets his shoulders square to the basket. On the right low block he will also face and attack the middle of the lane and finish with his left hand over the defense. White loves to drive left when his faces up. White is an average shooter at best behind the arc and this is an area that he needs to develop along with adding some scoring drives off the dribble.

It's possible that White comes in and immediately takes the reigns as the team's best offensive player. But without an outside option to unclog the lanes, White will have little room to operate. What's not mentioned here that I've seen elsewhere is White's knack for the assist. That's great for a big man to have as he's being double-teamed in the post. But, again, we need an outside shooter to make defenses pay.

Trevor Mbakwe: A Minnesota product who comes to the Gophers from Marquette via Miami Dade Community College, Mbakwe is another interior option. At 6'8 and 220 pounds, Mbakwe is more of a long and athletic type of low post player with the ability to hit a 15 foot jumper, according to ESPN's scouts.

Along with White, RSIII, Iverson, Johnson and Carter, Mbakwe will add to what will be one of the Big Ten's best interior groups. Just two years after the Monson/Molinari regime ended--a regime that was always dominated on the inside--this group will represent a complete 180. Coach Smith has done a tremendous job shoring up his players in the paint.

Rodney Williams: Described as "off the charts athletic," Williams might be the most athletic recruit coming into the Big Ten. Athleticism is certainly one of Minnesota's needs, and Williams should be able to get to the basket against most competition. But he isn't exactly a shooter at this point. From ESPN.

Williams is an above the rim highlight in transition. Catching lobs is his specialty. Williams also scores with a one or two dribble pull up going to his right or a running floater where he uses his leaping ability and length to score over opponents. Skill development must be at the top of his list to be successful in college. Williams struggled to score in a half court setting. He must work on his overall shooting and ball handling. He didn't look comfortable shooting the three or making scoring moves off the dribble (Timberwolve Shootout). He also had trouble finishing at times once he got to the rim because he seem to be anticipating contact instead of attacking the basket.

If Williams can put together a respectable outside game, he could dominate the Big Ten eventually. But his current struggles in the half court and lack of comfort shooting from the outside will reinforce Minnesota's current weaknesses.

Make no mistake, I think Williams is a tremendous addition and will eventually add quite a bit. But I'm not sure he addresses the team's most dire need: A consistent scorer from the outside.

Justin Cobbs: A point guard that will probably be given every chance to win the starting point guard job, Cobbs has earned a reputation as a talented point guard with upside. Interesting analysis here.

Cobbs is one of the most debatable players on the west coast. On the one hand, his competiveness, athleticism, and improved skill are attractive to any coach on any level. However, his decision-making (specifically his shot selection), is troublesome to say the least. He takes very difficult shots early in the shot clock that leave you shaking your head, but there is no question he is a talent. He is extremely explosive in the open court and is very strong going to the basket and had some of the most acrobatic finishes of the tournament (Mission Prep Christmas Classic). He can knock down the 3-point shot and he gets great lift on it.

No doubt that Cobbs' competitiveness is what drew Coach Smith to him. And it's great to see that Cobbs is confident shooting the rock. But Tubby has a short leash and will not put up with out of control shot selection. It'll be intersting to see where Cobbs shakes out next year. Will he earn time at the point? If he does, will Devoe Joseph slide over into the two-guard slot? No matter what happens, Cobbs might be the most important member of this class. If he pans out into a solid point guard who can score, then Minnesota will be scary for the next few years. If not, the Gophers will continue to have the same problems they've been having.

Bryant Allen: A Missouri native who signed a letter of intent to play for Coach Brewster, Allen could be another member of Minnesota's backcourt. At 6' 160, Allen is a point guard who is described as a streaky outside shooter who is very quick and athletic off the dribble. If he plays basketball, he too will be in the mix at the point guard spot.

Conclustion: Each of the incoming recruits could be very good in a number of areas. But in looking at the common perceptions surrounding each of them, I'm not sure this incoming recruiting class has addressed the team's most dire need, that is, finding a guard who can score consistently from the outside.

In fairness, when Smith was putting this class together the largest perceived weakness was a lack of a stable inside presence. No doubt that has been addressed. And Williams' athleticism will be great to see in Williams Arena. But unless Williams, Cobbs, Allen, or current guards Nolen, Westbrook, Joseph or Hoffarber begin to hit shots from the outside, next year's team, while tougher on the inside, might suffer from the same issues.

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Comments

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Love it

I miss these types of posts from back in the PJS and GN solo days., and maybe because that’s all we had going for us. Or that anticipation is half the fun.

Anyhow nice post. What the eternal optimist in me is saying is that we should be “buying” right now. I have to figure, especially with a formidable inside threat, Blake is going to shoot better than 20% or whatever. I have to figure that with the offseason and continued work Al should look more like the first half than the 2nd half of the season. I think Devoe is going to be quite the player, and a deep threat, but yes he is a two.

So in sum I agree with the concerns especially in regard to the PG and ballhandling, but I think our guard play/deep threat could turn out ok especially if the inside recruits and off-season growth pan out.

It’s going to make for good discussion, thanks to our hot-cold Sophomores.

by InflectionPoint on Mar 10, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions  

Thanks.

I had this post in my head for weeks. FInally had some downtime this morning and cranked it out.

I think for the next few years we can be a dominant team on the inside—MSU like, really—but I also think we need an outside option to loosen up defenses that will be doubling the post all of the time.

Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher

by PJS on Mar 10, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Outside Option

Are you thinking Blake gets passed over for Devoe or our phalanx of SFs? I have to think his shot will comeback and he’ll get more open looks next year. Do you feel we saw the real Al the past two months? Or is it you’d like to see that combo of ballhandling and shooting in the same package? With that in mind it also should be interesting to watch what Tubby does with Joseph over the off-season and as he gets his hands on Cobbs. He’ll have to remain a ballhandler to a degree, but does he continue to convert him?

As you pretty much state, when you look at our pretty awesome talent/athleticism from the SF – C, it makes the question marks at ballhandling more glaring. Imagine the defensive possibilities with the Royce, Rodney, DJ, PC, Trevor, Ralph, Colt…. but I’m sure we’ll talk about that aplenty over the next months/years. : )

(quick ot – another half court quibble it seemed as though Tubby didn’t want to ever try and set something up for blake/a 3pter. Few double screens along the baseline or in-out movement to find him a shot. )

by InflectionPoint on Mar 10, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Answers

Blake? I think Blake has a role especially if he can get his shot back. But he’s also our best passing guard. He might be the only guard who can occasinoally throw a good entry pass.

Al? This is a mystery wrapped in a enigma ….. He will have a role bacause of his defense, which has never been questioned. But he’s regressed as a distributor and hasn’t improved even a mid-range jumper.

Joseph? I’d like to see him as a hybrid 1-2. I think we’ve been good when he’s pushed tempo as a point guard. But I’d also like to see more of him and Nolen together. I’d also like to see a three guard set with Nolen, Joseph and Westbrook. That’s better than Nolen, Westbrook and JAS for sure.

Screens: I agree. Why not run Blake off of a few screens. He’s a catch and shoot type and will be in rhythym and not thinking if he’s catching and releasing in rhythym.

Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher

by PJS on Mar 10, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

excellent post

Clearly the outside game has been missing but I would argue it is a function of not having an offensive player that defenses have to account for. Since nobody on the roster is capable of dominating offensively, defenses can stick on shooters and be more aggressive with ball pressure because they aren’t going to get beat by penetration or post play on a consistent basis.

Hoffarber and Joseph will get more open looks when defenses have to gameplan for and use a team approach to stop Royce White (hopefully) and maybe Rodney Williams. If these guys can become dangerous off the dribble, shooters will be wide open to catch the ball in rhythm and drain threes all day. In that regard I think the White/Williams athleticism is exactly what this team needs.

That and the continued development of Sampson/Iverson/Mbwake should open things up. Like I said, this current team does not threaten to score so shooters can be covered by defenses rather easily.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 10, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions  

Great Post

It has been a head-scratcher. How can Hoffarber suddenly forget how to shoot the ball missing open three’s. Joseph is no longer getting open looks. I wonder how much of it is caused by Tubby’s quick hook for missing an open three early in the shot clock. Our shooter’s should not be yanked for that when they are open and it is causing us to use most of the shot clock and then force a bad shot too often. Take the shot when you are open (Nolen excluded). Hoffarber and Joseph need to learn how to fake the shot, dribble in and pop the 15 footer. Shooter that are getting that much respect should be able to drive a step or two pretty easily for an easier shot even if they aren’t great ball handlers.

by Narby on Mar 10, 2009 11:39 AM CDT reply actions  

excellent

Well written and thought out. I agree with you on your main point too.

by Texas Gopher on Mar 10, 2009 1:33 PM CDT reply actions  

I was wondering the same things...

Great Post! I sure hope that with the presence of this new crop on the interior that it gives us more wide open looks… and then somebody steps up and hits open J’s. Mbakwe is going to be a huge key, if he can successfully slash next year, that will be huge in freeing things up.

by GreasyLlama on Mar 10, 2009 6:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Don't overlook Bryant Allen

I agree with the masses… very solid post. I think all of us were desperate for a “thinker piece” as the Michigan loss has left us wondering a little bit more than usual about the future of this team. I noticed that Bryant Allen’s inclusion in the post was a bit of an afterthought, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he could develop into a very solid role player. Chances are he’s too small (6-0, 160, yikes) to develop into a 25-minute per game player, but we’re talking about the need for an outside shooter, right? Marcus Fuller mentioned in his blog on the Pi Press that Allen has made 300-some threes in his high school career. How many games to they play in preps these days? 20/year. That means he’s dropping about four threes per game and if you look at his highlight film, it’s pretty much all outside shooting. I’m not suggesting he beats out Cobbs/Nolen for the starting PG spot, but Allen seems to have a definite chance to be a very nice (and sorely needed) piece for this team. That’s, assuming of course, that as a football recruit he remains as committed to hoops at Minnesota as we all hope.

Also, my first post to the board. Glad to be a part of what seems like a well educated batch of fans.

by Maroon and Old on Mar 11, 2009 12:01 AM CDT reply actions  

Welcome, Maroon and Old

On Bryant Allen, you’re right, I might have overlooked him. Hopefully I did and he comes in next year and makes himself a factor.

I guess I tend to take a wait and see approach with players that intend to play football and basketball at a major university. Quite a few players either decide, or are forced, for whatever reason, to stick with just football. Terelle Pryor comes to mind.

If anyone has seen it stated that he absolutely is playing basketball, shoot me a note or post it below.

Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher

by PJS on Mar 11, 2009 8:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree about the wait and see approach...

I think it’s next to impossible to play 2 sports, much less these 2, and it’s getting more impossible every year. I know people do it from time to time…but I wonder how these kids have time to do anything other than work out and sleep. Disclaimer: a buddy of mine teaches at the U, he has single-sport athletes in his courses all the time, and those guys, just with one sport, already miss a bunch of classes every semester, what with travel, etc. He says that as nice, well-meaning, and smart as most of these guys are, they go through hell trying to catch up on assignments, especially after having missed lots of in-class instruction. I’d almost go so far as to say that schools that allow 2-sport athletes are doing these kids a real disservice – basically setting them up to fail.

by plinytheelder on Mar 11, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

The threes will fall

I love the incoming class. You do raise valid concerns regarding the need for an outside shooter, and it may bite us in the behind on occasion. However, this recruiting class should make us a dominant rebounding team (we should be on MSU level). Also, this class gives Tubby, who we all know loves to tinker with different lineups (for good and bad), the chance to really cater to whatever style of play he wants.

by mrclash on Mar 11, 2009 1:01 AM CDT reply actions  

Absolutely.

If Tubby’s goal was to make the Gophers an inside rebounding force to compete with Michigan State, he seems to have achieved that.

Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher

by PJS on Mar 11, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good Information AND Analysis

Mine goes:

F starters are White and Mbakwe, backed up by Rodney and Carter or DJ.

C is split between Sampson and Iverson.

G are Westbrook, Nolen, Joseph, Hoffarber, and Cobbs (in some order).

Gophers get 25 W due to major talent upgrade – lose JAS and Jon, add White – Williams – Mbakwe – Cobbs – maybe Allen.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 11, 2009 4:19 PM CDT reply actions  

this seems to be a bit of a recurring pattern

with Tubby teams – he doesn’t seem to place as high a value as some other coaches on the shooting ability of his guards – Rondo, Wayne Turner (was that his name?), and his kid all come to mind. Not that there haven’t been great shooters at Kentucky, but he always seems to have a few guys in the backcourt who just can’t be counted on to knock down the 3.

by plinytheelder on Mar 11, 2009 6:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Turner Recruited By Pitino

Tubby’s PG recruits (Saul, Hawkins, Rondo, Stockton, Jasper) were not great shooters.

Tubby’s SG recruits (Bogans, Fitch, Azubuike, Crawford, Meeks) WERE great shooters.

Bogans is #4 on UK all-time scoring list. Fitch is Top 25 and had similar FG % stats to Tony Delk.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 11, 2009 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

fair enough,

and you know a lot more about his tenure and teams at Kentucky than me. It just seems to me that there are always a few perimeter guys on his teams who are either pretty weak or very weak shooters…versus other teams where you need to be able to drain the 3 if you want playing time. Nothing necessarily wrong with this, just an observation.

by plinytheelder on Mar 12, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

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