Bubble-ology
by GopherNation on Mar 11, 2009 9:02 AM CDT
in Gopher Basketball
11 comments
What happened Tuesday and what to watch for on Wednesday that may (or may not if we would just freaking beat NU on Thursday) affect the Gopher's chances of earning getting an NCAA Tournament bid.
Bubble Math
- 31 Automatic bids to conference champions
- 34 At-large bids that we'll be fighting for.
That's the easy part. I'm going to heavily use Joe Sheehan's daily update on Basektball Prospectus to get a grip on the teams fighting for spots. Below are what helped or hurt us on Tuesday and who we are rooting for on Wednesday.
What helped on Tuesday
- Cincinnati loses to DePaul - Cincy was already out but a Big East tourney run would have moved them back on to the bubble. The Bearcats are NIT bound.
- Georgetown loses to St. Johns - The Hoyas had only 16 wins but they also had a top 50 RPI and a top 5 strength of schedule. The committee loves SOS and they love the Big East. G'town winning a couple games may have put them back on the bubble, not anymore. Good luck in the NIT.
- Western Kentucky over South Alabama - the Hilltoppers take themselves out of at-large talk and get the conference AQ
- NDSU winning their conference tourney - They stood no chance at an at-large but we beat them so a win over a tourney team is never a bad thing.
What hurt on Tuesday
- Cleveland State beats Butler - Cleveland State took the AQ bid for the conference and Butler will steal an at large. This was the worst news of the week so far for Gopher fans.
What we want to happen on Wednesday
- DePaul to continue their season long Big East winning streak and beat Providence - Prov can work it's way back into the tournament but a loss to DePaul would eliminate that possibility.
- West Virginia over Notre Dame - similar to Georgetown the Iris should clearly be out but a little run in the BE tourney and they'll get back into the discussion. Lose on day one and they are out (sound familiar?).
- Colorado over Texas - super long shot on all fronts. The Buffs are unlikely to get this win and Texas is way ahead of us in pecking order, but them losing can't hurt anything.
- Texas Tech over Texas A&M - A&M is ahead of us and behind Texas (Longhorns). A 1st round loss can only help us (though probably not very much).
Things get more intersting on Thursday, including by not limited to controlling our own destiny.
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Your “What hurt on Tuesday” section doesn’t make any sense. First of all Butler didn’t beat Cleveland State (though you said they did), where Western Kentucky DID win the Sun Belt by defeating South Alabama. That means they don’t have the opportunity to snag an at-large bid, because they receive the conferences only tournament bid by securing the automatic berth.
sorry
I wrote this last night then had to edit this morning based on actual results. I wasn’t thorough enough.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Mar 11, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes. WKU grabbed an automatic bid last night. They will be the only Sun Belt representative.
Had they lose to S. Alabama, WKU might have had an outside chance at an at large.
Butler losing to Cleveland State did hurt. That burst someone’s bubble as now Butler will get an at large.
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Interesting
That Sheehan doesn’t even list Northwestern as being on the bubble. Kinda surprising since almost everyone else thinks they have a shot.
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Sheehan seems to hate the Big Ten. He’s been bashing the conference the past two years, and has been harping on the records this year “inflated” by playing Indiana while ignoring the awful bottom four of the Big East (combined record against the rest of the league: 5-53 entering the conference tournament). Aside from Michigan, he has all the Big Ten bubble teams much lower than just about anyone else.
Northwestern has a lot of work to do. Minnesota probably just needs to beat them, but Northwestern needs to at least take out MSU in the quarters.
right now NU doesn't belong anywhere near the bubble
their resume is weak all around. Right they need to do a lot even to get into the conversation.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Mar 11, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions
DePaul
Cmon boys… Knock Providence off!
Though I’ve been finding it increasingly hard to cheer against Cincy, Georgetown, Providence and some of these others that are down the ranks a bit, because generally if we are really worried about them, that means we lost to NW and getting in would mean finding the ultimate backdoor. Not an especially fun way to “earn” a bid.
by InflectionPoint on Mar 11, 2009 11:53 AM CDT reply actions
Completely agree...
with Gopher Nation’s hatin’ on the Wildcats. What have they done to earn a bid over any of the other Big Ten bubble teams? Sorry, but 8-10 and 9th place in conference ain’t gonna get it done.
gophers win they should be in
If gophers win against Northwestern they should be in…probably. Cleveland State’s victory hurt, but as long as the ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big 12 and PAC 10 hold true to form we should be fine. The SEC worries me though…that is wide open. Hopefully LSU or Tennessee can pull that out. But, if florida or kentucky wins the SEC tourney the gophers are in big trouble.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 11, 2009 10:15 PM CDT reply actions
memphis also worries me
hopefully their young team doesn’t lose focus.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 11, 2009 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Gophers need to win 2
I think the Gophs are on the wrong side of the bubble. Their late season slump does not bode well with the selection team. They MUST beat Northwestern and probably need to upset the Spartans. I hope a win over the Wildcats is enough, but I don’t think it is. And Northwestern is not a gimmee. A loss to them spells NIT.
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