Bubble-ology

What happened Tuesday and what to watch for on Wednesday that may (or may not if we would just freaking beat NU on Thursday) affect the Gopher's chances of earning getting an NCAA Tournament bid.

Bubble Math

  • 31 Automatic bids to conference champions 
  • 34 At-large bids that we'll be fighting for. 

That's the easy part.  I'm going to heavily use Joe Sheehan's daily update on Basektball Prospectus to get a grip on the teams fighting for spots. Below are what helped or hurt us on Tuesday and who we are rooting for on Wednesday.

What helped on Tuesday

  • Cincinnati loses to DePaul - Cincy was already out but a Big East tourney run would have moved them back on to the bubble.  The Bearcats are NIT bound.
  • Georgetown loses to St. Johns - The Hoyas had only 16 wins but they also had a top 50 RPI and a top 5 strength of schedule.  The committee loves SOS and they love the Big East.  G'town winning a couple games may have put them back on the bubble, not anymore.  Good luck in the NIT.
  • Western Kentucky over South Alabama - the Hilltoppers take themselves out of at-large talk and get the conference AQ
  • NDSU winning their conference tourney - They stood no chance at an at-large but we beat them so a win over a tourney team is never a bad thing.

What hurt on Tuesday

  • Cleveland State beats Butler - Cleveland State took the AQ bid for the conference and Butler will steal an at large.  This was the worst news of the week so far for Gopher fans.

What we want to happen on Wednesday

  • DePaul to continue their season long Big East winning streak and beat Providence - Prov can work it's way back into the tournament but a loss to DePaul would eliminate that possibility.
  • West Virginia over Notre Dame - similar to Georgetown the Iris should clearly be out but a little run in the BE tourney and they'll get back into the discussion.  Lose on day one and they are out (sound familiar?).
  • Colorado over Texas - super long shot on all fronts.  The Buffs are unlikely to get this win and Texas is way ahead of us in pecking order, but them losing can't hurt anything.
  • Texas Tech over Texas A&M - A&M is ahead of us and behind Texas (Longhorns).  A 1st round loss can only help us (though probably not very much).

Things get more intersting on Thursday, including by not limited to controlling our own destiny.

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