Bubble-ology - Saturday morning
by GopherNation on Mar 14, 2009 12:09 AM CDT
in Gopher Basketball
28 comments
Sunday we will have a Selection Show game thread here to talk about getting screwed by the committee or our bid / seed / opponent.
Clearly we are on the bubble, but where do we sit? I've been using the guideline that there are seven spots available for teams who are not safely in with either an auto-bid or who have done enough that they have no reason to sweat Selection Sunday. It looks like prior to the Michigan State game we were sitting safely near the top of that group of seven and we are not a lock to get in but we should feel pretty safe.
I looked into four different bracket projections to get a look at their final seven teams in and where the Gophers stand. Bear in mind this was all compiled prior to the Michigan State loss. So you could assume that we'd move down a bit, but also remember many of the other teams on this list lost as well so movement should not be too drastic.
| Yahoo!'s The Dagger | Lunardi's Bracketology | The Bracket Project | CBS Sports | |
| 1 | Creighton | Michigan (10) | Michigan (10) | Michigan (10) |
| 2 | Minnesota | Minnesota (11) | Florida (10) | Florida (10) |
| 3 | Michigan | South Carolina (11) | Penn State (11) | Minnesota (10) |
| 4 | South Carolina | Penn State (11) | South Carolina (11) | Penn State (11) |
| 5 | Maryland | San Diego State (11) | Boston College (12) | St. Mary's (11) |
| 6 | Penn State | Creighton (12) | San Diego St (11) | San Diego St (11) |
| 7 | Arizona | New Mexico (12) | Creghton (12) | Creghton (11) |
| 8 | Viginia Tech | Florida | Arizona | Arizona |
| 9 | UAB | Arizona | New Mexico | Maryland |
| 10 | San Diego State | UNLV | UNLV | South Carolina |
| 11 | St. Mary's | St. Mary's | UNLV | |
| 12 | Providence | Maryland | ||
| Florida | Virginia Tech | |||
| Temple | Temple |
It is pretty simple math. Not only do the four or five teams below us who are still considered "in" have to leapfrog us; so does at least one other team that is currently outside looking in. The Bracket Project had us as a 9 seed so I assumed we were safely above the Bubble-seven.
What helped on Friday
- Florida loses to Auburn - most believe Florida will be NIT bound for the second straight year after winning back-to-back national titles.
- Illinois beating Michigan - The Wolverine loss was worse than our loss to Michigan State.
- Purdue beating Penn State - again, this loss was worse than our loss to the Spartans.
- North Carolina over Virginia Tech - should knock the Hokies out.
- Mississippi State over South Carolina - the Cocks are on the bubble near us and likely behind us with this loss.
- LSU over Kentucky - THANK YOU, if you've read this the last couple days you know I was very worried about Kentucky.
- Louisville over Villanova - doesn't help a TON but if we can say we beat the Big East regular season and tournament champ that has to help our resume.
What hurt us on Friday
- Losing to Michigan State - but that was expected.
- Maryland beating Wake Forest - the Terps are right on the edge and this win will help them a lot.
- San Diego State over BYU - a huge win for the Azteks and they a likely team at this point. Three of the bracket projections above already had them in and this win should secure that bid for them.
- Baylor beating Texas - you will see the Bears on most bubble lists in the morning. Worse than getting on the bubble, a B12 tourney championship would shrink the bubble.
- St. Mary's over Eastern Washington - This is a very weird game as both of these teams were one game under the NCAA maximum so it was a late addition to the schedule so the Gaels could add one more win to their resume. Not sure how much it will help but it was a win.
Saturday?
I'm not going team by team because it is simple really...cheer for the higher seed every single game. We don't want bubble teams to win and we certainly don't want weaker teams shrinking the bubble by stealing an auto-bid.
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Wisconsin
Should be on the bubble – I guess I think the Gophers have a better resume than the Badgers. I know their RPI/SOS helps them.
Even Badger fans are talking about the possibility of being in the NIT – http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=193&f=2565&t=4073571
Visit my D2 Baseball Blog - Northern Sun Baseball
I was reading this earlier...
On the “conversations” board on ESPN following the Wisconsin loss, many Wisconsin fans didn’t think they would get in. But then they don’t believe Penn State will either. I found that interesting. But no argument about Minnesota being in for sure.
You Forgot........
about Xavier and Dayton both dropping Atlantic 10 seminfinal games to Temple and Dusquene respectively. Now the A10 definitely has three bids coming its way. All these upsets are killing the Gophers. I’m a huge Mizzou fan right now (though I always was before I came to the U).
Gophers Have 90% Chance
23 W would have been 99% but that’s water over the Minnehaha Falls.
by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 14, 2009 11:07 AM CDT reply actions
Lunardi says....
as of this morning Lunardi has penn state out and maryland and san diego state in the tourney. That is completely insane to me. St. Mary’s just got destroyed by gonzaga on a neutral court and san diego state only beat BYU yesterday…who cares!
Don’t get me wrong…I would like to root for san diego state because of MN native and Burnsville graduate Ryan Amaroso, but give me a break…Penn state has the best wins of any big 10 team…if you wish to take a big 10 team out it should be wisconsin due to them losing a million 7 point leads with 5 minutes left…make them pay for their incompetence.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 14, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions
He is obviously biased
Only 6 teams in from the Big 10? The conference absolutely deserves at least 7. He also has Purdue as a #7 seed. Biased against the Big 10. I don’t care what people say about the style of play. We still play well in the tournament because we play defense.
hope you're right
this waiting absolutely sucks
by plinytheelder on Mar 14, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
seriously
how does he have Maryland and St. Mary’s ahead of Minn?
Gophers have a better RPI.
Maryland lost to Virginia and Morgan State (both worse losses than anything on Gopher’s resume)
Maryland has fewer wins.
They beat UNC but also lost to Duke by 41.
And if St. Mary’s gets in over Minn there needs to be a Congressional inquiry into the selection process. They have no good wins, terrible SOS and lower RPI.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Mar 14, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Lunardi has the Gophers as a lock
Lundardi has the Gophers as a lock and ahead of both Michigan and Ohio State right now, but behind Wisconsin.
Behind Wisconsin?????
That makes no sense at all. We beat Wisconsin twice. My guess is if only 7 teams go, Wisconsin it out!
Head to head doesn't matter
It is the whole body of work. I still think our body of work is better, but I think they are both in anyways. I think if only 7 B10 teams make it, PSU is out.
Yes, I realize that...
I wasn’t talking about who goes to the tourney rencito, but of the “seeding.” There’s no way Wisconsin has a higher seed than Michigan, Ohio State, or Minnesota. And yes, you could be right. I would guess it’s either Wisconsin or PSU who doesn’t get in at all. Right now, (nearly the half) OS is beating MS.
Lunardi also has a mistake...
…in the most recent edition of Bracketology. He has the Gophers playing in Minneapolis, which cannot occur because we are hosts for that site. It also shows Minneapolis having 12 teams, which is an obvious mistake. I think he meant for us to be in Greensboro opposite the #2 seed Duke.
I'm wondering...
If Penn State does make it in, they may actually be the lowest ranked team (RPI) to ever get an at large invitation. They are #68 right now. Yet, Lunardi has them as the 1st team out. Looking back at 2007, Stanford made it with a #67 rating, and I have no idea how. PSU looks to have a better resume than Stanford did then.
Wouldn't be a record
Air Force got an at-large with RPI #70 a few years ago.
something tells me that
Digger and Hubert Davis don’t like the big 10 very much. Does anybody else get that feeling? Jeez!
All they have done is pick on the big 10 this year for the lack of offense. And, today Digger ripped MSU for not breaking a zone defense. Well, Digger, Uconn and Pitt also choked against zone defenses, but you didn’t rip them did you? No!
Also, can Digger or Hubert rip UNC for playing absolutely no defense at all. Good god. Can they also rip Oklahoma for playing like a bunch of girls for the last month.
And, here is my favorite Digger comment: “Wisconsin can not guard anybody…that is why they lose games.” Are you kidding me Digger…Wisconsin loses games in the final minutes becuase they have very little offensive talent. They, on the other hand, have a wonderful defensive team.
And, since Digger loves the ACC so much I would like him to comment once and a great moon about how well the ACC (except for UNC) has performed in the tourney for the last five years….and compare that with how well the big 10 performs.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 14, 2009 3:09 PM CDT reply actions
....
Digger went on and on last year about how good Temple was and how they were going to beat MSU in the opening round…Well, MSU did nothing but destroy Mr. Christmas and his Temple Owls. They also went on to quite easily beat Pitt in round 2.
Duke, on the other hand, trudged their way passed a 15 seed last year in….BELMONT (71-70)…I think that score is correct.
Advise for Digger—-stop offering advise and stop waving your little marker in your hand while you talk…you are annoying and ignorant.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 14, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Good news
One of my bracket rules is to see who the talking heads rip on and go the opposite way. The three surest things in the world: death, taxes, and a win for whatever team Billy Packer’s annual rant is directed at.
Thoughts
The amount of anti Big Ten bias is incredible. The talking heads really think that defense isn’t an important factor in the outcome of basketball games. I was listening to Fox Sports Radio today and one of the producers was asked to rank the conferences. He had the B10 behind the Big East, ACC, PAC 10 and Big 12. He had no justification for this, mind you, just that the Big Ten “can’t score.” Well, the teams from the conference did better than just about any other conference in the non-conference slate.
HHPGTP, Digger is bad. But at least you’re not on the East Coast. Instead of ESPN coverage of the ACC Tournament, we get Raycom. I prefer Digger to what they offer.
Finally, we need Tennessee to beat Auburn right now and take care of Mississippi State tomorrow. The SEC should only be getting two in the field of 65—LSU and Tennessee.
And go Mizzou!
Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher
Baylor
If Baylor wins maybe the selection committee can match them up with Purdue like last year. that way Purdue can beat them by another 20 points.
If Baylor wins then Penn State probably has no chance at getting in…that is just great…Another punk team in a bad conference that finally decided to play hard gets in…just great.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 14, 2009 5:41 PM CDT reply actions
Gophers will be fine, etc
Gophers = in the tourney no matter if the Volunteers lose
Penn State = according to Lunardi they are out
Going back to the overall hate on the big 10…there is only ONE supporter of the big 10 and ironically it comes on behalf of Steve Lavin whose UCLA team’s played very little defense. I find it interesting that I can not recall Digger and Lavin analyzing basketball on the same television set. For instance, today, after Digger displayed his ignorant and idiotic beliefs regarding the big 10 roughly one hour later Lavin was in the studio giving his two-bitz about the bubble teams….Nice try to save your face ESPN!
I would also like mention to Digger that UCLA, Pitt, Uconn, USC, Maryland, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Arizona, Kentucky, West Virginia and to a lesser extent Louisville all play very much like Big 10 teams; and each of the beforementioned squads have similiar offensive abilitiy, but more importantly share a common goal in playing tough defense and thus controlling tempo. Mmm, interesting.
I would very much enjoy Digger’s explanation as to why Wake Forest should be considered a top ten team or why Clemson deserves any respect at all.
by huff huff plop go the bricks on Mar 15, 2009 1:27 AM CDT reply actions
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