Bubble-ology - Saturday morning

Sunday we will have a Selection Show game thread here to talk about getting screwed by the committee or our bid / seed / opponent.

Clearly we are on the bubble, but where do we sit?  I've been using the guideline that there are seven spots available for teams who are not safely in with either an auto-bid or who have done enough that they have no reason to sweat Selection Sunday.  It looks like prior to the Michigan State game we were sitting safely near the top of that group of seven and we are not a lock to get in but we should feel pretty safe. 

I looked into four different bracket projections to get a look at their final seven teams in and where the Gophers stand.  Bear in mind this was all compiled prior to the Michigan State loss.  So you could assume that we'd move down a bit, but also remember many of the other teams on this list lost as well so movement should not be too drastic.

 

Yahoo!'s The Dagger Lunardi's Bracketology The Bracket Project CBS Sports
1 Creighton Michigan (10) Michigan (10) Michigan (10)
2 Minnesota Minnesota (11) Florida (10) Florida (10)
3 Michigan South Carolina (11) Penn State (11) Minnesota (10)
4 South Carolina Penn State (11) South Carolina (11) Penn State (11)
5 Maryland San Diego State (11) Boston College (12) St. Mary's (11)
6 Penn State Creighton (12) San Diego St (11) San Diego St (11)
7 Arizona New Mexico (12) Creghton (12) Creghton (11)
8 Viginia Tech Florida Arizona Arizona
9 UAB Arizona New Mexico Maryland
10 San Diego State UNLV UNLV South Carolina
11 St. Mary's St. Mary's UNLV
12 Providence Maryland
Florida Virginia Tech
Temple Temple

It is pretty simple math.  Not only do the four or five teams below us who are still considered "in" have to leapfrog us; so does at least one other team that is currently outside looking in.  The Bracket Project had us as a 9 seed so I assumed we were safely above the Bubble-seven.

What helped on Friday

  • Florida loses to Auburn - most believe Florida will be NIT bound for the second straight year after winning back-to-back national titles. 
  • Illinois beating Michigan - The Wolverine loss was worse than our loss to Michigan State.
  • Purdue beating Penn State - again, this loss was worse than our loss to the Spartans.
  • North Carolina over Virginia Tech - should knock the Hokies out.
  • Mississippi State over South Carolina - the Cocks are on the bubble near us and likely behind us with this loss.
  • LSU over Kentucky - THANK YOU, if you've read this the last couple days you know I was very worried about Kentucky.
  • Louisville over Villanova - doesn't help a TON but if we can say we beat the Big East regular season and tournament champ that has to help our resume.

What hurt us on Friday

  • Losing to Michigan State - but that was expected.
  • Maryland beating Wake Forest - the Terps are right on the edge and this win will help them a lot.
  • San Diego State over BYU - a huge win for the Azteks and they a likely team at this point. Three of the bracket projections above already had them in and this win should secure that bid for them.
  • Baylor beating Texas - you will see the Bears on most bubble lists in the morning.  Worse than getting on the bubble, a B12 tourney championship would shrink the bubble.
  • St. Mary's over Eastern Washington - This is a very weird game as both of these teams were one game under the NCAA maximum so it was a late addition to the schedule so the Gaels could add one more win to their resume.  Not sure how much it will help but it was a win.

Saturday?

I'm not going team by team because it is simple really...cheer for the higher seed every single game.  We don't want bubble teams to win and we certainly don't want weaker teams shrinking the bubble by stealing an auto-bid. 

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