Golden Nugz 7.22.2009

by Buck Bravo on Jul 22, 2009 3:00 AM CDT Comment 5 comments

In preparation for the opening of TCF Bank Stadium, University police are attempting to develop procedures to prevent and control alcohol-related incidents:
"Check BAC is modeled after a University of Wisconsin-Madison program. If a student is caught for underage consumption or ejected from the stadium for public intoxication, they are automatically enrolled in the program. If the student comes back to a game that same season, they will be required to provide a breath sample on a portable breath tester."
They're probably looking for advice from the right place. I genuinely intend this as a compliment, but I know of no regional population that parties harder than Wisconsinites. If the University of Minnesota implements a "party control" policy similar to that in Madison, I doubt that TCF Bank Stadium will experience any unpreventable incidents.

Casino oddsmakers invest extensive time and resources into predicting the outcomes of sporting events and seasons. For 2009, VegasInsider.com lists the odds of winning the NCAA Football Championship as follows for current favorites and other Big Ten teams:

Florida	2:1
Oklahoma	9:2
Texas	11:2
USC	6:1
Ohio State	12:1
Penn State	30:1
Michigan State	75:1
Illinois	75:1
Iowa	100:1
Wisconsin	100:1
Michigan	150:1
Minnesota	150:1
Purdue	150:1
Northwestern	N/A
Indiana	N/A

It's odd that Northwestern didn't make the list whatsoever after last year's successful season, but at least the Gophers are at the same level as Michigan in the eyes of the oddsmakers.

Another sports betting analyst gives an unbiased analysis of Minnesota's likely performance in 2009.
Iowa has locked in Kirk Ferentz for several years to come. Ferentz will be receiving $3 million a year for the next 7 years.
An Iowa blog predicts notes that the Hawkeyes will likely finish 5th in the Big Ten.
Personally, I think that Iowa improved greatly as the 2008 season progressed. The trip to Kinnick Stadium should be an excellent progress test for the Gophers in 2009.

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Vegas Odd's

It’s funny that Wisky and Iowa have the same betting odds this year. I would think that Wisky would join us at 150:1 and Iowa to be closer to 50:1. Also, you are right Buck it is weird that NW isn’t even listed. The more I see these kinds of props, the more I want to start a sportsbook… it’s free money!

by GreasyLlama on Jul 22, 2009 10:46 AM CDT reply actions

Agreed

I like checking the odds because there must be detailed analysis involved due to the amount of money involved in sports betting. I was once told that the odds can also change based upon betting levels. For example, if everyone starts putting their money on one team, the payout for betting correctly on that team will be lowered in order to mitigate the risk of massive payouts. By this logic, teams with fewer fans may have better payout odds. For example, I know someone who put $20 on the Twins before the 1987 season to win the world series at 200:1 odds.

Buck Bravo

by Buck Bravo on Jul 22, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Vegas is good...

O/U for 2009

Illinois: 8
Iowa: 8
Michigan: 6
Michigan St.: 7.5
Minnesota: 6
Northwestern: 6.5
Ohio St.: 9.5
Penn St.: 9.5
Purdue: 5.5
Wisconsin: 7.5

“Where’s Indiana?” you ask? I’ll tell you where Indiana is: Nowhere. You can’t bet on Indiana because they’re terrible. Every other team on that list has me looking at the schedule and going “Yeah, I can see them finishing right about there.”

by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Jul 22, 2009 1:06 PM CDT reply actions

I see a couple that are bettable....

Michigan – take the over.
Michigan State – take the over.
Minnesota- take the over.
Ohio St. – Over.
Penn St. – Under (at 9-4).
Purdue – Under.
Wisconsin – Under.

by JG2112 on Jul 22, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Well...

I plan on doing a few fanposts in the next day or two about the Big Ten schedule, but those numbers really are pretty good. For example, Wisconsin at 7.5 is one I’d think about jumping at . But then you look at their schedule and see 4 non-conference wins, and games against Indiana and Purdue. That’s 6 right there. Then you have Minnesota and Northwestern on the road and Michigan and Iowa at Camp Randall, and you’ve got to stop and think. They’re tricky like that.

by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Jul 22, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions