that 18 of the top 32 players drafted were 4 or 5 star recruits according to Rivals.

Each year Rivals gives out about 17-20 FIve Star Rankings. You can see that 6 of them landed in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, which I would argue is a MUCH higher percentage than to see than 8 of the several thousand two-star players which are evaluated each year.

i’ve had this debate so many times now but it always ends up the same place: the star system is an accurate predictor of college and pro football success. 1/3 of the Five Star players were drafted in round one. I’ll argue less than 1% of all two star players get drafted.

I know that the point here is to prove that Brewster’s collection of 2 and 3 star athletes can turn out well. That certainly may be true. But I’d rather have 4 star Marqueis Gray than 2 star Florida QB, and I think the fanbase does too.

a TOTAL coincidence, they are just getting lucky.

As noted by JG above, there are less than 20 five star players each year. Over half of them end up first round draft picks. In contrast, there are thousands of 2-3 star recruits, of whom probably less than 1% become first round draft picks.

The first point is that star rankings are not the be all and end all of predictive success in getting drafted to the NFL. Then, there’s this aside about Vince Young, which is premature at best (He’s a 4th year QB). Vince Young’s NFL success means nothing in considering the star system.

I’ve argued this countless times so I’m going to do the research on this and do a little posting, but the scouting services are pretty accurate in determining that if you’re a 5 star, you’re probably going to play pro, if you’re a 4 star you’ve got a better chance, and if a 2 or 3 star, a lesser chance. If about 30-40 % of 5 stars make it pro, that’s obviously better than less than 1 % of 2 stars.

Just look backwards. Look at a few of the prior top players of the Rivals 100;

2002 – Vince Young, Haloti Ngata
2003 – Ernie Sims, Reggie Bush
2004 – Adrian Peterson, Ted Ginn Jr.
2005 – Derrick Williams, Patrick Turner, Eugene Monroe, Rey Maluagua (No. 5)
2006 – Percy Harvin, Andre Smith, Beanie Wells, Gerald McCoy.
2007 – Jimmy Clausen, Joe McKnight, Eric Berry, Ryan Mallett

if you get a high end player, you’ve got a 50% chance, probably, that he’ll be great in college. The odds are way lower for a lower star player.