Wisconsin Week by the Numbers, Part 1
by Buck Bravo on Sep 28, 2009 10:12 AM CDT
in Gopher Football
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For Wisconsin week, I'll be publishing a series of posts that statistically break down the interstate rivalry. Both teams now have four games under their belts, and we can take a look at how the two teams stack up by the numbers. Since Minnesota faced California while Wisconsin played Wofford, averages alone can be misleading. So, let's start by taking a look at how both teams have done versus their opponents' defenses:
Here's a breakdown of how both teams stacked up on a weekly basis:
The most glaring disparity is the outstanding performance of Wisconsin's rushing game. Their 197.8 average rushing yards versus 146.5 yards opponents' defensive average are not an inflated statistic due to a creampuff schedule. Wisconsin has in fact racked up impressive rushing yards versus every opposing defense. On the other hand, Minnesota's anemic 105.8 rushing yards per game is not as bad as advertised, and with the exception of the California game has not been far off from what the opposing defenses should be expected to allow. Most would agree that the Badgers have an excellent running game, but widespread criticism that Minnesota has a poor running game is not supported by this analysis. If the numbers are accurate, Minnesota in fact has a very average running game.
With regards to the passing games, both teams have performed in line with expectations for an average offense. While Wisconsin is known for their running game, Minnesota is known for throwing the rock. Based upon the statistics, Minnesota and Wisconsin appear to be evenly matched in the passing game.
Part 2 of this analysis will focus upon the defenses for this weekend's coming matchup. Part 3 will look at all of the numbers, and I'll take a stab at forecasting how this epic battle will ensue.
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Running Game
I was relieved to see a rushing attack on Sat agst NU. I don’t think Carufel played either (not sure why). Bennett looked like he was getting back to pre-ACL form and I thought Whaley looked very promising at RB. Gray is a real threat also. The OL overall played their best game. I also thought Fisch called a great game. Offensively, the guys look like they are starting to get comfortable with the new system and let’s hope for continued improvement.
Wisconsin
The badgers look like they are going to be tougher than I had originally thought preseason.
Non Cream puff
I disagree with your anaylsis on Wisconsin not racking up on cream puffs due to them averaging better then other teams are against the given Defenses they have played. Think about Northern Illinois and more glaringly Wofford and who their other opponents are. Of course Wisconsin has been the best team they have seen so in that case would put up better numbers against them then they average giving up. Minnesota has played a much tougher schedule then Wisconsin so far and have also played 2 road 2 home games while all Wiskys games have been at comfy Camp Randall for them. The numbers do not add up and with the way Mich St. has looked only Illinois is worse then them in the Big 10 making last week also not that impressive. Obviously this is a rivalry game so anything can happen but with how close the last few years were and the Gophs finally having a real home field advantage you have to like Minnesota here. I think we have a much better throwing passing game then them and better talent all around. Jedd Fisch called a good game last Saturday and has proved every week he is getting better and the team is getting better at his system. If the improvement continues Minnesota wins by 2 scores. Im predicting 38-28 Gopher victory.
Predictions
We will be sticking Paul Bunyan’s axe up your Ass’s for the 6th straight time. Believe it. You will never have home field advantage against us. To make things worse, your best Defensive player is suspended. Badgers will be seriously exposing some Gopher holes on Saturday, just dont act surprised.
Has your secondary met WR Nick Toon?? He’s #1- They will be seeing plenty of the back of his jersey Saturday.
Badgers 31-13. Statement Game. You guys lose again, HAAAAA!
Best Defensive Player????
McKinley is our 8th-10th rated defensive player at best. Dandridge is a non-starter safety so that doesn’t hold water.
This is the best defense we had in a long time with two good cover corners and 3 really good linebackers. Decker is still the man by the way.
Let’s Play!
Wow
What do they put in the water over their in WI? I find it unlikely that Toon is better than Decker…and our D goes up against Decker in practice…god what a homer. So you beat MSU…didn’t they lose to Eastern Mich or some team like that?
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 29, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
don't forget they pummeled mighty Wofford
The Terriers put up a plucky effort against the Chattanooga Mocs. just barely losing 38 – 9 last weekend.
"they're calling insane hogs???"
You do realize
That Wisky won by a whole 3 pts at home last year and Decker didnt even play. Not to mention our D and O are better and more experienced this year. We have plenty of safeties and DEs to deal with the suspensions allthough it does hurt. Oh and we do actually have a home advantage now i think road teams are only given about 2500 tickets at TCF unlike the metrodome there wont be any tickets for your fans to buy up, instead of a 50-50 crowd its going to be 95-5 and they will be loud.
Gophers by 10
This badger team just screams of soft schedule like the gophers teams of the past couple of years. Their pass defense is pretty horrible when you consider the quality of passing offenses they have faced.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 30, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't kid yourself
It won’t be a 95-5 crowd…. though it won’t be 50-50 either. My guess is 75-25. I am confident that more than a few season ticket holders will sell this game and will justify it by saying it pays for their season tickets… Sucks but true. Either way it will be a much better ratio than it has in the past.
Both Teams are Better Than Last Year
I likeour team better this year, but Wisconsin looks better than last year too. They are definitely getting better QB play this year, while we have improved in all areas. We still need to improve our running game and pass rush the most.
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