The TDG Consensus on the 2009 Big Ten Final Standings
by Buck Bravo on Sep 3, 2009 10:00 AM CDT
in Gopher Football
8 comments
The team at The Daily Gopher has been having some friendly debates regarding the prospectus for the 2009 Big Ten season, and we've decided to take our differences public. We'll revisit this post at the end of the season in order to analyze how well our predictions held up. Following is each of our predictions for the 2009 final standings, followed by a consensus prediction that combines all three of our analyses into one group intelligence melting pot:
GN - Penn State gets the home game against Ohio State so I'm giving them the not for conference title. But they will drop one somewhere along way, could be one of their road games (NU, Mich St or Ill). I believe in Iowa, they are good but they are not great. They have to go on the road to OSU and PSU, they won't sneak up on anybody this time around. I see it hard for them to lose a third game in conference so 6-2 seems pretty accurate. After that it is a cluster and this was my best guess. Illinois is very talented but who knows if they can stay above .500 in conference, they rarely (Ohio St 2007) play up to their talent level so them being in that 4-4 group wouldn't be surprising. Minnesota beats the other 4-4 teams and loses to the teams above them.
| RANK | TEAM | BIG 10 RECORD | OVERALL RECORD |
| 1 | Penn State | 7-1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 7-1 | 10-2 |
| 3 | Iowa | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| 4 | Illinois | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| 5 | Minnesota | 4-4 | 7-5 |
| 6 | Michigan State | 4-4 | 7-5 |
| 7 | Northwestern | 4-4 | 8-5 |
| 8 | Michigan | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 2-6 | 6-6 |
| 10 | Purdue | 2-6 | 4-8 |
| 11 | Indiana | 0-8 | 2-10 |
BB - The competition for the Big Ten Championship should be a four horse race. As usual, Ohio State and Penn State are in the running. For 2009, expect Iowa and Michigan State to be added to the mix. Iowa has a talented crew of upperclassmen and a dominant offensive line. Michigan State had a surprisingly successful year in 2008, and with a favorable schedule should be in the running for the Big Ten Championship. The rest of the teams in the Big Ten, barring any unexpected strings of over-achievement, are destined to finish in the middle or bottom third of the conference. If Iowa can pull off an upset at Ohio State, they could very well win the conference. As I've said before, Iowa's performance in their last two games of the 2008 season was no fluke. I'll take the Hawkeyes to win the Big Ten, even without Shonn Greene or Jewel Hampton:
| RANK | TEAM | BIG 10 RECORD | OVERALL RECORD |
| 1 | Iowa | 7-1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 7-1 | 10-2 |
| 3 | Michigan State | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| 4 | Penn State | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| 5 | Illinois | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| 6 | Northwestern | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| 7 | Michigan | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 2-6 | 5-7 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 2-6 | 4-8 |
| 10 | Purdue | 1-7 | 3-9 |
| 11 | Indiana | 0-8 | 3-9 |
JG - The only way to fairly make these predictions, is to print out EVERY game, predict them, and then tabulate. Give me two hours and I'll be back here.....
And I'm back. A few principles and ideas permeate my predictions: (1) the loss of Jewel Hampton is devastating to Iowa's team; (2) Michigan had a significant infusion of talent and experience, and the team is having a "me against the world" moment - those cannot be understated for 18-22 year old men (of course, if they don't start fast this season will be a 3 win disaster again); (3) Central and Western Michigan are going to beat up on the Big Ten (Michigan State, in particular); (4) Northwestern's schedule is incredibly favorable this year; (5) Wisconsin's is not, plus, Bret Bielema is their coach; and (6) Illinois will be the best team in the conference, but they'll lose to Missouri and Cincinnati out of conference.
Upset of the year: Michigan over Ohio State (November 22nd).
Best game of the year: Illinois defeating Penn State (October 3rd).
| RANK | TEAM | BIG 10 RECORD | OVERALL RECORD |
| 1 | Northwestern | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| 2 | Penn State | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| 3 | Michigan | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 6-2 | 9-3 |
| 5 | Illinois | 6-2 | 8-4 |
| 6 | Michigan State | 5-3 | 6-6 |
| 7 | Minnesota | 4-4 | 7-5 |
| 8 | Iowa | 3-5 | 7-5 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 1-7 | 5-7 |
| 10 | Purdue | 1-7 | 3-9 |
| 11 | Indiana | 0-8 | 2-10 |
Based upon averaging out our respective predictions, the TDG consensus for the 2009 Big Ten standings is as follows:
| RANK | TEAM |
| 1 | Penn State |
| 2 | Ohio State |
| 3 | Iowa |
| 4 | Illinois (tie) |
| 5 | Northwestern (tie) |
| 6 | Michigan State |
| 7 | Michigan |
| 8 | Minnesota |
| 9 | Wisconsin |
| 10 | Purdue |
| 11 | Indiana |
1 recs |
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A tip of the hat
to JG. I started saying in the spring that this was going to be a year like 2000. Two losses takes the title and a number of teams tied for the crown. I may not agree with your teams, but I agree with the general idea.
The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
Too much Iowa worshipping
Iowa has a tough schedule this year. Road games to Penn State (looking for blood for last year), Michigan State and Ohio State. Yes, the Hawkeyes are good. They have the best OL and one of the top 3 defenses in the conference but they are not going to just steamroll everybody. They also have to deal with a talented but underachieving Arizona team early in the season and early is when they usually stumble.
By the way, Illinois is not going to lose to Missouri and Cincinnati. Both of those teams lost a ton of starters from last year and will be in rebuilding mode (especially when they face Illinois).
OSU and PSU are losses for Iowa
but the fact that they have the best OL and a very good defense is why they will likely win the rest of their conference games (imo).
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Sep 3, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
3 Losses
If they get past Michgan St on the road, they will stumble to one of the spread teams (Michigan or Northwestern). We don’t know yet how anybody matches up with Michigan this year. They could click on all cylinders.
sure they 'could'
so could a few other teams. I wasn’t trying to predict the unexpected, just the best educated guess in my mind.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you
by GopherNation on Sep 3, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
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