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A Friday Preview of What We Really Don't Know - Minnesota at Syracuse, September 5, 2009

Face it. The Gophers play the Orange in the Carrier Dome tomorrow at noon on ESPN2, and you really have no idea what's going to happen. Frankly, no one ever does until the game happens. That's not going to stop me now. While previews will obviously be of much greater benefit once teams play their first game, we can do a little bit here. First off, depth charts:

Minnesota depth chart

Syracuse depth chart

Now, let's consider in detail five of the most important matchups to watch based on the depth charts, and then move to best case and worst case scenarios for the Gophers in New York.

Most important matchups to watch:


(1) Minnesota's O-line versus the Syracuse D-line - Quite frankly, there is no reason for the Gophers to not leave Syracuse with over 300 rushing yards. The Minnesota O-line runs, in order, 296, 316, 285, 303, and 375 pounds. The Syracuse D-Line runs 234, 293, 273 and 246 pounds. The linebackers are 223, 236, and 216 (what?) pounds. Duane Bennett, DeLeon Eskridge and Kevin Whaley should be hitting the line when the line is 5 yards down the field. I'm trying to figure out how a 234-pound defensive end has any chance against a 6-7, 296 pound lineman like Matt Stommes. He doesn't. The Gophers should be able to run the ball all. day. long against this defense, control the time of possession, and wear out these undersized defenders.

(2) Syracuse WR Mike Williams v. Minnesota CB Traye Simmons - Simmons gives up 3 inches and about 33 pounds to Williams, who returns after a one-year break from tackle football. This height and weight disparity can hurt Minnesota in two distinct ways: (1) jump balls, which Paulus may resort to quite a bit in his return to football; and (2) on the edge in running plays, where Williams should be able to lock up Simmons and provide effective blocks on Simmons to spring starting RB Delone Carter. Simmons will have to be speedy and crafty to avoid being rendered ineffective.

(3) Minnesota QB Adam Weber v. his pass-crush with WR Eric Decker - Yes, Decker has 3 inches and at least 20 pounds on any Orange defender and should be effective. But I have no doubt that the Gophers' second and third options will be vastly superior to the Orange's nickelbacks. Weber has an amazing array of receiving talent to throw to. He needs to utilize it in order to maximize not only the opportunities across the entire field. He needs to stop setting up Decker as his target by locking on to him, because it can be argued that Decker took more hits than necessary, and ultimately was injured, in 2008 because Weber was setting him up. There's no reason to do it this year.

(4) Syracuse's interior offensive line v. Eric Small and Garrett Brown - The Syracuse guards and center is really the only place where I would argue Syracuse looks competent. G Ryan Bartholomew (Sr, 6-3, 288), C Jim McKenzie (Sr, 6-4, 284), G Tucker Baumbach (Sr, 6-5, 317) all have experience and actually match up well with Small and Brown. While I think that QB Greg Paulus will have the ability to avoid Minnesota's defensive ends due to his speed and elusiveness, the interior line is much more difficult to deal with. Syracuse has to lock down the interior of Minnesota's line to have any chance for Paulus to have a successful debut.

And, finally:

(5) Syracuse QB Greg Paulus against the Minnesota defense, his ego, his nerves, and all logic - Honestly. This is the reason why this game is so hard to predict. How is it possible that Paulus walks in, practices the summer, and displaces the starter after spring ball, as well as the QB who beat Charlie Weis last year? Furthermore, there is no benefit to Syracuse playing Paulus if he's anywhere near comparable to sophomore QB Ryan Nassib. That makes me suspicious, and worried, that Paulus is playing really, really well, because this is a one and done shot that hinders Nassib's development.

So, new coach, new QB for Syracuse, new coordinators for Minnesota. Bring on the best case / worst cases:

Bang your head (against a table) if: Weber is making eyes at Decker, if Paulus is hitting Williams with regular accuracy, and if the Gophers cannot run the ball on the severely undersized and thin Orange defensive front 7.

Bang your head (like you're at a rock concert) if: Weber spreads the ball, Paulus looks like a guy who played basketball for Dook last year, and Kevin Whaley has over 100 yards.

My prediction for Saturday: Nazareth, Slayer, Megadeth and Stryper. Headbanger's Ball at the Carrier Dome. Minnesota 51 - Syracuse 20.

0 recs  |  Comment 29 comments |

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20 seems high, unless you believe that Paulus is getting the hook for floating too many balls and Nassib can put some points on the board.

by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Sep 4, 2009 10:05 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

or maybe Paulus is the real deal

who knows? The kid was kind of a stud, albiet a LONG time ago.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno...

I’m just not impressed with everything I’ve dug up on Paulus. He’s got a good motion and he’s fairly accurate, but he just floated everything in the videos I’ve seen.

Oh, and I think that 51 for us is a little high, too.

by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Sep 4, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the kid is legit

it will take a while to show I think. I mean he hasnt even faced a HS level defense in 5 years.

QB isnt physical, its mental. He has physical gifts, but he has been studying film for what like 2 months?

And given the fact that he has been away from the game, I bet the majority of his film time is spent on himself, and his offense, not the opposing team and what they do defensively.

by stpaulgop on Sep 4, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

300 yards rushing?

I agree with predictions for a Gophs W, but I dont know if 300 yards, or even 200 yards, is in the cards.

First off—while we have size, we still havent produced on the O-line. They are unproven.

Second, Arthur Jones for Syracuse is a legit AA candidate and without a doubt the best DT we will face all year.

150 yards would be a good start for us.

by stpaulgop on Sep 4, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you regarding Jones

But…….the Gophers run the sweep, cut game (sweep wide, make a cut and go). Kevin Whaley was supremely effective running the sweep in the Spring Game, and Bennett’s first sweep run at the scrimmage went for 20 yards.

Also, conveniently, running the sweep takes the Minnesota offense away from Jones.

by JG2112 on Sep 4, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

True the sweep runs away

from the big DT.

Just how nimble are our big hogs though?

I mean Mason’s team ran the sweep well but they didnt have a guy north of 300 lbs. There is a reason Wisky doesnt run that play well (and we have about the same size profile across the front 5 as they do).

I guess we shall see, but with guys our size a zone stretch, or trap is probably the best (running up the middle). No Eslinger to lead out to the edge and waste LB’s

BTW who misses the days of Eslinger getting love at every broadcast? Only time I have seen a center circled on the telestrator pretty much every game

by stpaulgop on Sep 4, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My breakdown

Syracuse will get an early TD, will get one turnover in MN territory leading to a field goal, will have one other drive for a FG, and then a meaningless late TD when Sam Maresh and company are given playing time. That’s how the Orange gets to 20.

by JG2112 on Sep 4, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

31-17

The game is fairly close but Syracuse is never really quite within reach. Syracuse scores a 4th quarter TD to keep the game interesting, but doesn’t get any closer than that.

Whaley barely plays but Bennet has 2 TD—one rushing and one receiving. Decker catches a TD pass and Weber gets one on a QB sneak.

by rencito on Sep 4, 2009 10:59 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I had a dream last night

that we lost. It was not a good feeling this morning.

Normally I’m an optimistic person, but think about how our view of the season would change if we were to lose this game?

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 11:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

just jitters

don’t overthink this game too much. the stats that JG laid out about the line size makes me feel a whole bunch more relaxed. I think we win and it will be a big confidence boost going into the Opener, then see what miracle can happen against Cal.

"they're calling insane hogs???"

by CrowTrobot on Sep 4, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sweating it out

This opener is crucial. A “must-win” in my book. A season can hinge on this game. This is the toughest type of game to open up with. A game you should win but not a “gimme.” An opponent that is largely a mystery. Personally I would rather open with either a cupcake or USC/UF/UT.

by Texas Gopher on Sep 4, 2009 12:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

yes

let’s open with certain loss. Expectations will be low, the first game kinks can get worked out and the anticipation for game 2 will be higher despite the loss.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

GNation

I see a big difference between “certain loss” and nothing to lose. Playing a top five team right out of the gate has many benefits. Keep everyone focused and motivated over the off-season. Probably be on national TV. A loss in this situation can actually be a confidence builder. I am assuming you were being sarcastic, but I still contend that this is the toughest type of game to up open up with.

by Texas Gopher on Sep 4, 2009 1:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

it sounded sarcastic

but I was serious. I agree with you.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Gophers lose this game tomorrow

I highly doubt that this coaching staff has what it takes to lead this team beyond 2009. Syracuse has lost 20 players and is playing a PG at QB, has the architect of the worst defense in Michigan’s history as their D-Coordinator, and has guys lighter than me playing defensive end. There is no way this should not be a 30 point victory for a team that claims to be improved over last year.

by JG2112 on Sep 4, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that losing this game would be a VERY strong indicator that this coaching staff does not have what it takes. But a 30 point win over any BCS school is a huge stretch. We are just not that good.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we win this game pretty easily, but...

let’s not get carried away with anti brew and staff talk if they lose. Sometimes teams get momentum early and it deflates a team (Iowa game last year*). Or maybe Syracuse could surprise people this year and finish the year with a winning record. Weirder things have happened and I don’t think you can make a judgment like that off of this game alone.

*Iowa was better than us last year, but they weren’t 55-0 better than us. They just had all of the momentum and EVERYTHING fell into place for them. If Syracuse beats us by 55 points than I agree that Brew should get canned on the spot.

by GreasyLlama on Sep 4, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not that he should get canned for losing

but if we are truly better this year, then we should be able to go on the road and beat a mediocre (to below average) team like Syracuse that is going through more changes than we are and starting a QB who hasn’t played football since 2004(?)!

It would just be an indicator that he can recruit and get the fan base excited but he may not be head coach material just yet.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

GNation

I misinterpreted you, no problem. This game has me uptight because of the ramifications. To me this is much more than one win or one loss. I do think we will win though with a ground game that controls the clock and physically wears down the Orange. If I could have one stat after the game, it would be Bennett with 100 plus yards rushing and no fumbles (ok, 2 ).

by Texas Gopher on Sep 4, 2009 3:35 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

does anyone know

anything about Paulus’ running ability. I think the rust will show on his passes but I’m not confident in our defences ability to contain a mobile qb

by T Adams on Sep 4, 2009 3:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll be on Syracuse radio about 20 min from now

1410 ESPN radio!

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Sep 4, 2009 4:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Lockerroom

GN—-don’t give them any lockerroom bulletin board material!! Wish I could listen in.

by Texas Gopher on Sep 4, 2009 5:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I just...

…don’t have a whole lot of confidence in the coaching staff other than recruiting. Brewster was hired for his recruiting and he has delivered.

Who have we ever blown out under Brewster? No one. Bowling Green last year? That game was VERY close until the 4th quarter when the Falcons just gave the game to us. We couldn’t even blow out Montana State at home. We eeked out just about every win.

This year my expectations are higher. We should blow out South Dakota State at home and beat Syracuse rather convincingly. I’m just not willing to bet on it yet.

by rencito on Sep 4, 2009 5:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Game Time

BTW…the game starts at noon EASTERN tomorrow. I’m glad it is an 11:00 (CDT) start because I can hardly contain myself right now. I’m also glad that the first three games are on locally in Austin.

by rencito on Sep 4, 2009 6:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you

Rencito in your thinking. The old song by Ike and Tina Turner always comes to mind when I think of being a Gopher fan all these years. The beginning of Proud Mary starts out “you might like to hear something nice and easy” ( like a FB win today) but then she says “we never/ever do nothin’ nice and easy.” I hope I am wrong and it is a nice and easy win today but years of conditioning have taught me “nothin’ is nice and easy” when it comes to U of M football.

by Texas Gopher on Sep 5, 2009 8:02 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice

Very fitting. There is nothing easy about being a Gophers football fan.

by rencito on Sep 5, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rencito

For what it is worth, my favorite sports bar in Austin used to be Sholtz’s (sp?) Beer Garden. Close to campus and great atmosphere. Disclaimer: I haven’t been there recently.

by Texas Gopher on Sep 5, 2009 8:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Still there

I was there back in April when I was visiting the school. Heading to the UT game right now.

by rencito on Sep 5, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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