A super quick look at Air Force
by GopherNation on Sep 9, 2009 11:33 AM CDT
in Gopher Football
11 comments
For some help disecting Air Force I employed the help of Jeremy at Mountain West Connection. I asked him a few questions to get us primed and below are his answers.
TDG - 72 points is 72 points regardless of your opponent. When the whole world knew they were going to run the ball, then run the ball then run the ball again, how did Air Force manage to rack up that many points and that many yards on the ground?
MWC - The option offense is just tough to defend, just look at the other option teams this weekend in Navy who gave Ohio State everything they could handle, and then Georgia Tech who averaged 6.7 yards per carry. This offense is very difficult to defend because it is rarely used anymore plus there are so many looks which means defenders must stay with their assignments, and if those assignments are missed then the defense gets burned. Part of the reason that Air Force was able to score so many points was due to their defense that forced Nicholls State to go 1-14 on third down and was able to recover four fumbles.
TDG - Air Force is disciplined in their run game and usually very effective. But the top teams in the Mountain West have managed to slow them enough to beat them. What do the other teams do to stop the Falcons, what does it take to slow down that ground game?
MWC - Assignment football is the reason that BYU, TCU, and Utah are able to slow down the Falcon rushing game. No matter how good a defense is Air Force will still get yards, but the key is to limit the big yard plays. In all five of Air Force games they were held to 110 yards less then in their wins. Scoring early and getting up on Air Force is a key which takes away their running attack and forces them to pass. Air Force is not terrible in passing the ball but if forced to pass to win it will not happen for Air Force. Just limit the big plays and keep to your assignments which is how to slow down the Falcon option.
TDG - What is the Air Force achille's heal on defense?
MWC - Hard to find a weakness with a shutout, but last years team Air Force was just below average in the Mountain West in rushing and passing defense. They were more suspect in the pass game last year as well as giving up big pass plays. The Falcon teams have tended to wear down defensively if they are on the field for long periods off time.
TDG - Based on what you know, Minnesota's OT escape in Syracuse and Air Force's dominating week one win, what do you think happens on Saturday night in Minneapolis?
MWC - We all know Air Force will be able to run the ball, but the big question is if Minnesota has enough disclipine and does not bite on the play fakes with the option. If they can stop the big run plays by Air Force then Minnesota will be in this game. I have a hard time seeing Minnesota winning this game because, Syracuse was one of the worst teams in college football in 2008 and they gook the Gophers to the wire. Minnesota needs WR Eric Decker to have a performance like he did against the 'Cuse with 183 yards to exploit the Falcon secondary with his deep threat presence. Minnesota will be pumped since this is the home opener to their new stadium, but I expect the Falcon running attack to be too much and have Air Force winning this game.
I'm much more nervous about this game than I was a week or two ago. We'll break things down a little bit more in the coming days, but this defense better be ready for a long day of making tackles and being patient in their assignments.
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i expect air force to win game too
i live in nevada and the line has gone down to 3 1/2 points (cal/neva sportsbook) i took the 4 1/2 points and will take the money line when it comes out. i just see airforce running the ball and controlling the clock and keeping the fans in check. air force can throw the ball deep and effectively in certain situations. minnesota did struggle against a syracuse team with a qb who had not played since high school. it does not bode well for the gophers. good luck with your conference schedule. you will probably end up anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the big ten. now a trick question. now that minnesota has it’s own football field to play on how many dome stadiums are left in fbs?
by wolfmanshowlforever on Sep 9, 2009 1:23 PM CDT reply actions
Wolfman
What do you think of the over/under at 47?? I see the over as a lock.
Wolfman
I don’t think many people on this board would complain about 3rd to 5th in the Big Ten.
Answer to the trick question: more than 1. Tulane plays its home games in the Superdome (perhaps more teams do). Obviously Syracuse. Other than that, I’m not sure.
I'll take the Gophers on this one
If the game were in Colorado Springs, it might be a little different. I think the Gophers defense steps up big in the clutch again and we pull out a 27-17 win—although I could see it turning into a shootout, too. Either way, I think it is the Falcons defense, not ours, that gives up the big plays.
By the way, how great is it to go the Gophers page on various sports sites like ESPN.com and see something to the effect of, “Air Force at Minnesota 7:00 ET TCF Bank Stadium”?
I thnk we have to hang on until 2nd half again
I think the goofy offense will throw us for a bit, but we’ll adjust like we
did against Syracuse, then we’ll blow them away.
"they're calling insane hogs???"
No disrespect intended to the MWC blogger, but
We should win this game. Yeah, I get the tricky offensive scheme has the potential to own the clock and lead to big plays. But at the end of the day, we’ve got better athletes and are playing at home. His rationale that “If they can stop the big run plays by Air Force then Minnesota will be in this game” is silly: if we can stop the bug run plays, we will WIN the game, not just be in it. He seems to suggest we have no playmakers of our own and our only hope is to hang on ’til the end of the game and hope for a prayer.
Bottom line: if the coaches have schemed this properly, we’ll win. I’m not suggesting we’re definitely going to win, of course. Lord knows, our schemes have let us down before. I just don’t see Weber being anywhere near as bad as he was last week, so we should score some points. I sincerely doubt AFA has anyone on the team who can hang with Decker, which should (read: SHOULD) create some opportunities for Green, Stoudamire, et al. provided Weber manages to turn his gaze from #7. Defensively, we’ll give up some points, but we should be able to outscore them.
Here’s hoping I’m right. :-D
Weber
I think Weber will bounce back also, I’m thinking 300+ yards passing 3-4 TD’s.
"they're calling insane hogs???"
Decker is huge
I know that Minnesota has Decker, but really that is it and it will be very tough for AFA to cover him and slow him down. Trust me Air Force is not just some random low level team they are disciplined and a good team. Now this game will be close and could go either way, but I think the option is too difficult to contend with.
Also, Minn snuck by Syracuse who is not a good team.
by Jeremy Mauss on Sep 10, 2009 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Again, no disrespect...
but you failed to respond to any of my points. First, I never said AFA is a random, low level [sic] team. They are disciplined and have some good athletes but, generally speaking, these are guys who were passed over by most BCS-level schools and/or were more inclined toward service in the military than playing in a BCS conference. Does that mean there aren’t any diamonds in the rough or otherwise great players? No. But, on the whole, the talent level at Minnesota is better than AFA. Or are you asserting that Air Force has better athletes? If so, let’s hear that.
And yeah, we snuck by Syracuse. Who cares? AFA nuked a I-AA school. Congrats. At the end of the day, they both amount to the same thing: a “1” in the W column.
Look, you’re a MWC homer and that’s cool. Clearly, I’m a Gopher homer. I just think you’re placing way too much stock in a tricky-to-defend offensive scheme that, if it were “too difficult to contend with” would be used by more than 5% of major conference teams.
We’ll find out tomorrow night. :-)
idaho's stadium is called the kibbie dome
tulane does not play all their games at the superdome. they do have a football field near their campus. as for the over i like over 47 points. it’s been bet up to 48 1/2 points. another thing people may not realize is that the usa today’s line is not the vegas line. danny sheridan has nothing to do with the vegas line. remember when he had 73 points for charleston southern. when the vegas line came out it was 63 points at the cal/neva sportsbooks. ds changed his to 63 points. as far as i know that is the most points ever in a game with a line in vegas. i like competitve dogs but in this case i saw no reason for florida to run up the score. they callled off the horses after halftime. they were up 48-3. the line was bet down to 59 1/2 points. final score florida 62, cs 3. everybody won which is rare indeed. i basing my prediction on how ohio state did against navy. not very good. game came down to last play. i think you would agree that minnesota is not quite osu while air force and navy are quite similiar. we will see manana! best of luck to the gophers. will see who has bragging rights in a friendly manner. ramble on!
by wolfmanshowlforever on Sep 12, 2009 12:20 AM CDT reply actions
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