10 games left for Gopher Hoops

by GopherNation on Jan 27, 2010 2:45 PM CST in Gopher Basketball Comment 9 comments

5 on the road and 5 at home. The Gophers currently sit at 4-4 in the Big Ten. I think it is fair to say that 6-4 is the least they need to do in order to get themselves into the NCAA Tournament. That might not be enough but 5-5 would mean they have very little chance barring a B10 Tournament run to the championship.

So what is it going to take to get six more wins (or more).

Absolute MUST WINS

These games are non-negotiable. If you lose one in this group then you need to make up for it by doing something crazy like beating Purdue at home.

@ Penn St - a month ago I assumed this was a tough game, but PSU is 0-7 in conference games and now this looks terrible if you lose it, even if it's on the road.
Michigan - home game against a team that won't be on the bubble. Michigan is talented but at home you just have to win this one.
Indiana - I know they just beat us, but no excuse for losing this one at home. If you get swept by Indiana, you don't deserve to play in the NCAA Tourney.
Iowa - They are really bad and you can't lose at home.

Probably Should Win, but this is the Big Ten - you've got four games in the bag. Of the remaining six you need just two wins and they are there for the taking. I have three games in this group, all are on the road. All are winable but I'll be happy with two wins here.

@Northwestern - I'm not sold that NU is a Tournament team and we can certainly beat them. But I don't like the match up and this game has loss written all over it. We are a more talented team so we really should win if we want to be considered a serious NCAA team.
@ Illinois - I really don't know what to think of the Illini this year. Their record, RPI and even KenPom rank would indicate that we should win this game. But we have been terrible in Champagne for a long time and if you want more logical logic, their backcourt athleticism is a bad match up for our Nolen-less squad. This being a road game is going to be tricky.
@ Michigan - Manny Harris is what makes this game dicey. But here again, the Wolverines are 3-5 in the Big Ten and just 10-10 overall. This game needs to be a win but it won't be as easy as it may appear to B10 outsiders.

Don't count on it, but a win would surely help - these games are tough match ups for whatever reason and should really be considered a loss. They would do a lot to boost the resume if you manage to win any of these games but losing them isn't the end of the world.

@ Ohio State - we did beat the Buckeyes by nine. But obviously that was at home and with help of Nolen. This game is winable but a loss, as long as it's competitive, wouldn't be that big of a deal.
Wisconsin - I usually like how we match up with the Badgers. But now I fear Trevon Hughes. This game may be the most winable of these three but I'll be surprised if we are favored here.
Purdue - I think Purdue had their let-down portion of the season. I don't expect that we'll pull out a win at the Barn. We very well may make a game out of it, but I don't see a win. But boy would I love to be wrong.

How does it play out?

I think the four must-wins are going to be wins. Michigan is the one game that scares me but as I stated, if you want to be an NCAA caliber team you need to win games like this at home. Of the remaining six I think we go 3-3. Here is the schedule and my "expert" predictions...

@ OSU - loss
@ PSU - win
Mich -win
@ NU - win
Wis - win
Ind - win
Pur - loss
@ Ill - loss
@ Mich - win
Iowa - win

At Michigan and home to Wisconsin are my least confident predictions.

Time for you all to give us your final ten game predictions.

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The way I look at it is...

that every one of these remaining games is winnable. I am not saying that they will win them all, but the only three gyms that I view as a 10% chance or less are: @MSU, @Purdue, and @Wisky. We have already played two of these games the the other isn’t on our schedule this year. We really needed the MSU win, but what do you do. If we want to have any chance at making the dance this year we have to go 8 of 10.

by GreasyLlama on Jan 27, 2010 4:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Using the formulas outlined...

in this post, I’ve calculated the chance that Minnesota has to win each of its remaining games. Keep in mind that home/road advantage IS a part of the formula.
@Ohio State 32%
@Penn State 68%
vs. Michigan 72%
@Northwestern 41%
vs. Wisconsin 42%
vs. Indiana 76%
vs. Purdue 37%
@Illinois 42%
@Michigan 53%
vs. Iowa 84%
In case you’re wondering, the sim predicts 9.47 wins, 8.53 losses and a 5th place Big Ten finish for the Gophers. If, however, the favored team wins each of the above matchups, the Gophers will finish 9-9.

by hapshaughnessy on Jan 27, 2010 7:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

My humble predictions

@ OSU – loss – but I think we could pull out a win if Blake is hot
@ PSU – win – should be easy if we are more interested than we were last game
Mich – win
@ NU – win – they suck
Wis – win – for the honor of the Maroon and Gold
Ind – win – we are better
Pur – loss – for no other reason than we would be due for a loss
@ Ill – loss – hard place to play on the road
@ Mich – loss – another hard place to win
Iowa – win – this will be tough but the seniors will pull us through

"they're calling insane hogs???"

by CrowTrobot on Jan 28, 2010 8:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

@ OSU – loss
@ PSU – win
Mich -win
@ NU – loss
Wis – loss
Ind – win
Pur – loss
@ Ill – loss
@ Mich – win
Iowa – win

by bgkrenz on Jan 28, 2010 11:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

After that snore-fest on Tuesday...

I am so pessimistic, its ridiculous…

@ OSU – loss
@ PSU – loss
Mich -win
@ NU – loss
Wis – win
Ind – win
Pur – win
@ Ill – loss
@ Mich – loss
Iowa – win

I think OSU W earlier is going to help resume.

Clem's Nuts

by Clem's Nuts on Jan 28, 2010 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

no chance we get in if we finish like this.

by GreasyLlama on Jan 28, 2010 2:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

as I said in the post, 6-4 is what we need to get in. 5-5 means we need at least 2 wins in the B10 tourney, probably 3 but that depends on who we beat and who we lose to.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Jan 28, 2010 6:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My take

I think we go 7-3 the rest of the way. I think we win all of the must wins you listed, in addition to 2/3 of the probably games, and 1/3 of the don’t count on it games.

As an aside, I don’t think any games should be a “don’t count on it” game. We have showed the ability to play with everyone this year. The only loss that looked like a blowout was the one at Purdue. And we outplayed Purdue in every facet of the game other than shooting—where we MISSED more shots than the Boilermakers ATTEMPTED.

All in all, we have seen improvement this year, although maybe we all had too high of expectations. Last year, there were teams that we just couldn’t compete with on the same floor. This year, there is no such team that we have played yet, and probably isn’t any such team in our conference. Sampson looks better. Carter looks better. Westbrook has been better. Nolen was better. And Joseph has really stepped up the last few games in Nolen’s absence. It is like watching him grow before our eyes.

Next year we should see even more growth—especially in the case of Williams. As long as we make the tournament—I’m happy. I don’t think we even need to win a game this year. Next year is when we should have realistic Sweet 16 expectations (although White and Mbakwe sure would have helped get there this year).

by rencito on Jan 29, 2010 2:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs