Can Al Nolen save Minnesota?
That's the headline of a post from Ken Pomeroy at Basketball Prospectus. Here's a snippet:
Now, Minnesota is probably not a worse team with Al Nolen on the floor. But whatever boost he brings is easily overwhelmed by the variability in the performance of his teammates over the course of six games, which indicates that Nolen’s influence is that of a role player more than a star. Basically, if Minnesota is going to finish in the top four of the Big Ten, it’s either going to take some luck in close games, or substantial improvement from the team as a whole.
over 1 year ago
PJS
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Interesting read.
MN has definitely been under performing. In the Virginia loss and most of our other poor performances the main issues have been poor perimeter defense and really bad free throw shooting. Nolen will definitely help with the perimeter defense, but the free throw shooting is what is really scary. We have to improve in that area if we are gonna continue to win close games and it will help put out some of these lesser teams.
Perimeter defense...
…is the issue in my opinion. Teams didn’t magically shoot “season high” percentages against us….it’s because they were shooting open shots.
We also go through long stretches without scoring…which is fine against lesser teams but will lead to big deficits against other Big 10 teams.
Virginia just stinks…that team sucks ass. I’m disappointed we lost to them. However, all teams lose games they should win at some point so I need to let it go. I also think we had the excitement of the Puerto Rico tournament, dying to play UNC/WV…then we came home and saw a bunch of nobodies on the schedule. Combined with Nolen being out, 3/4 full dead crowds at the Barn…and it all just sort of leads to “blah”. Once we hit Big 10 play I see a lot of attitude and assertion adjustments which I’m excited about.
The Big 10 is shaky this year. Teams are up and down and inconsistent as a whole. Should be an interesting season of both big wins and horrible, unexplainable losses.
Nolen can only make the team better. It’s ridiculous to infer otherwise. I am perfectly happy having my point guard be a role player…who wouldn’t be?
If he just takes Ahanmisi's minutes they'll be better
Ahanmisi has been terrible on defense and a turnover machine on offense
math...
and I think the 15% chance to win 10 Big 10 games is a bit low. 15%???
Seems about right to me
About 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 chance. Given the way we have struggled against lesser competition and the strength of the conference, that may even be generous.
I know the loss of Nolen was a blow to our perimeter defense but...
…I don’t think correcting that alone is going to be the answer for all the teams ills. Right now the Gophers seem to be in a “funk” except for Mbawke. Poor free throw shooting, slow developing shot inside the paint, and most of all very poor free throw shooting is really hurting us. Maybe they are playing to the level of the competition and when the big games come along they will play better. But they better start correcting problems now. If they think Nolen is the cure-all for all their problems, they are mistaken.
I would say the opposite....the glass is half full
Yeah we have had some stretches of bad hoops against lesser schools, some of which were dance teams from last year. That being the case we have also aired out the bench and played deep, like most schools do, but many dont play deep and dont win these kinds of games. Are we a top 5 team at this point? No, maybe top15 at best, but the season is young. Take most schools starting PG off their team and they will struggle. I see it as a chance to get Al back, Devoe will be more productive off the bench and will improve as Nolen did as he got older and plays more. I think that Nolan is a great player and certainly one of the best defenders in the Big 10. I see the the Gophers being in the top 5 in the Big 10 with some luck and bounces. My real worry as most have already said is the FT %, it kills a team late in games especially in conference. We will be winning a lot of games if we just get some guts from Sampson or Iverson…they can trade off on showing up for all I care…we know what we will get from Mbakwe every night. Expect a 25+ point win tonight. The Gophers are hungry to shut us critics up and I hope they can come through…if not then we will be back here complaining about an 11-1 team…not so bad in my opinion.
Devoe and Nolen
The stat that jumped out at me from Myron’s article in this morning’s Strib was that it’s been 27 games since Nolen and Joseph were on the court together. That streak is expected to end tonight, and could go a long way toward fixing the Gophers’ problems. Joseph can play point, but he’s a more effective scorer playing off the ball, and his ball handling is suspect. He’s also not very good at defending the opposing point guard, so in a sense, it’s all the role -playing things that Nolen does so well that does make him a difference-maker. Looking forward to seeing the Nolen-Joseph backcourt for a change, even though it probably won’t happen with the starting lineup.
Journalism. Enhanced.
Big Ten myth
It is not the best conference in the country. And I might be in the mind set to say its not even close. Look at what the Big Ten conference has done in the non conference portion of the schedule. You could almost say absolutely nothing. As of yesterday, the conference had 4 wins against ranked teams. Three of which are no longer ranked (UNC, Gonzaga, and Washington), and one of which (Florida) is beginning to look unspectacular. Michigan State has floundered against higher competition. Whether or not they will be ready in March is undetermined and will remain so until the end of the season. Purdue looks like a team sorely missing a star player and they got hit with another injury. They’re competitive but not elite. Illinois is a joke. I know no one agrees with me but this team is hardly an upgrade from last year’s NIT edition. They have one quality win (@ Gonzaga) and a bad loss (UIC). Why they are still so highly regarded besides the “returning starters” is beyond me. Ohio State looks very legitimate. However, one team doesn’t make a deep conference. It’s like the ACC with Duke.
My point is, we are definitely capable of competing for a top three spot in the Big Ten because the Big Ten is not as good as people previously believed (or still believe if they are huge homers and are in denial). There is no reason why we cannot compete for one of the top spots in this conference. Besides Ohio State possibly pulling away from the pack, its going to be a blood bath.
Personally, I think Nolen makes a huge difference on the floor. He distributes, makes free throws, usually harasses the other team’s best guard, and is often a contributor in big “game changing” plays. With him back in the lineup, combined with Mbakwe’s emergence as a force, consistent contribution from Hoffarber and physical play from our other bigs (Sampson, Iverson, and Walker) this team is just as capable as any other in the Big Ten (with the possible exception of Ohio State).
I 2nd that....
Excellent analysis Tubbytime, the Big Ten is still pretty deep and has another 5 teams that should be ranked between 10 and 30th nationally. MSU is not elite as per usual and Illinois is a one trick pony (McCamey). We could finish 2nd or 6th this year, but OSU is the only team in the Big Ten that scares me and is noticely better. Purdue without Hummel drops out of the top ten and along with Wisconsin, they only have 2 very good players each and they both lack depth.
Here is what we do have: 2 excellent 3 point shooters, a rebounding machine, tremendous size and depth, (few teams match our front line depth). Teams are taking more outside shots against us because they haven’t been able to get good looks inside. I’m looking forward to getting Al back and I look forward to a fun Big Ten season.
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