Bubble-ology or How I learned to stop worrying and love the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

by GopherNation on Feb 22, 2010 1:00 PM CST in Gopher Basketball

Time to start looking at the NCAA Bubble and the Gopher's chances. First of all we have to get ourselves back on the bubble before we can even begin to think about getting a tournament berth.

There are about a bazillion different bracket projections out there. All have the teams they think are locks, barely clinging to life in the Tourney, the first several "out" and teams not under consideration. I can't possibly look at all of them so I'll be using three primary sources. SBN's weekly Bracketology, Joe Lunardi's Bracketology and then the Bracket Project's matrix of the other brazillion predictions.

UPDATE: If you are looking for more BUBBLE TEAM breakdowns, I strongly urge you to check out Blogging the Bracket's bubble watch.

I don't want to scare you all too much but there is a LONG list of teams that are either barely in or on the bubble. This is probably not even a complete list but it is a list of teams the Gophers have to surpass to get themselves into the Big Dance. (note: these are the teams Lunardi has under consideration when he lists his % chance of getting into the Tourney)

	Record	RPI	SOS	Conf Rnk
Florida	19-8	53	57	3rd (t)	Likely IN
Marquette	17-9	59	50	6th (t)	Likely IN
St. Mary's	21-5	46	125	2nd	Better than 50/50
UAB	21-5	31	94	3rd	Better than 50/50
Rhode Island	20-6	25	61	6th	Better than 50/50
Dayton	18-8	43	41	7th	50/50 at this point
San Diego State	18-7	38	71	3rd	50/50 at this point
Mississippi St	19-8	65	115	4th (t)	50/50 at this point
UConn	16-11	45	2	8th (t)	Less than 50/50
Cincinatti	15-11	56	16	8th (t)	Less than 50/50
Arizona State	19-8	58	74	2nd	Less than 50/50
Memphis	20-7	60	107	2nd	Less than 50/50
Mississippi	17-9	63	54	7th (t)	Likely OUT
Charlotte	18-8	55	98	5th	Likely OUT
Wichita State	21-7	50	126	2nd	Lots of work to do
Washington	18-9	60	49	4th	Lots of work to do
South Florida	16-10	68	43	8th (t)	Lots of work to do
Notre Dame	17-10	80	60	8th (t)	Lots of work to do
Minnesota	16-10	76	63	7th	Lots of work to do
Seton Hall	15-10	52	11	8th (t)	Lots of work to do

The Big East is the most interesting conference to watch right now. There are six teams that are virtual locks and then there are another five or six teams scrambling for as many at-large bids the NCAA will allow them. WVU, Syarcuse, Vilanova, Louisville, Pitt and Georgetown are locks. Right on their heels is Marquette who has a good shot at getting in. And then you have five teams with a 6-8 conference record all with varying strengths and weaknesses to their resume (UConn, Cincy, Notre Dame, South Florida and even Seton Hall).

The SEC also has a handful of schools fighting to get in. Florida's resume is fairly strong right now but the Mississippi schools are in a dog fight to get themselves in. Of course a big loss for Florida would be nice for Minnesota's sake.

The Pac-10 is incredibly weak this year which means Arizona State and Washington should have plenty of opportunities for W's as they close out the season. ASU has a couple tough games left @ Cal and hosting USC. Washington has three games left, all on the road but all against the bottom of the conference.

Then of course you have the mid-majors trying to get as many teams in for their conference as possible. For these teams a loss usually does more damage than say Minnesota losing to Purdue this week would do. Mid-major major upsets are what we are cheering for.

Games that Matter this Week, and what we need to happen.

Right now we are cheering for teams currently on the bubble or barely "in" to lose. Of course the other part of this crucial equation is that we need to win. Beating Purdue on Wednesday would do wonders for our RPI and boost us back up toward the bubble. Since I'm "tracking" so many teams lets just go with the first few days of this week before we move on to the weekend. As stated a number of times, if we lose on Wednesday none of this will matter anymore, if we win then Bubble-Ology coverage will pick up significantly here.

MONDAY

West Virginia @ UConn - The only game of consequence tonight. The Huskies have two straight road wins and finally return home for a big one. Go Mountaineers!

TUESDAY

Tennessee @ Florida - Florida's resume is good enough right now but a home loss would bring them back closer to the bubble.
Rutgers @ Seton Hall - Considering Rutgers sits very near the bottom of the Big East this one should be a W for Seton Hall.

WEDNESDAY

South Florida @ Villanova - another matchup of bubble team vs. ranked team. If things keep playing out like this (AND THE GOPHERS WIN) we'll get back into the picture here.
San Diego State @ BYU - read above.
Pitt @ Notre Dame - a home loss here might be the nail in the coffin for Notre Dame (and Minnesota for that matter).
UAB @ UCF - UCF is a .500 team at home. This would be a big upset.
DePaul @ Cincinnati - Bearcats should be OK here as DePaul is really bad this year.
Saint Joes @ Charlotte - StJoes is down this year but an upset win here would be doubly good as it would boost our SOS and knock down Charlotte.
Marquette @ St. John's - praying for an upset here.
Auburn @ Mississippi - chance to pick up a home win for the Rebels who have lost 3 in a row.
Wichita State @ Bradley - The Braves did just knock off #1 Northern Iowa last week, can they do the same to the Shockers?
Alabama @ Miss State - Bama beat the Bulldogs at their place now they go for the sweep!
Dayton @ Temple - this is a key game for the week. GO Owls!
Memphis @ Houston - the Tigers beat up Houston pretty good last time around, this would be a pretty surprising upset.

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good post. i’ve been looking for something like this on other sites.

Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher

by PJS on Feb 22, 2010 1:04 PM CST reply actions

RPI

If we can beat Purdue (no easy task) this week we will have knocked off three top ten teams as Ohio State and Butler both moved into the top ten this week. Imagine what our RPI would look like right now without the Portland and Indiana losses. Damn!!!

If we can beat Purdue (i repeat no easy task) that sets up a potential showdown for fifth place between us and Illinois on Saturday.

The illinni have:
@Michigan tuesday (could be an easy win, could be a blowout loss, no one really knows how the wolverines will play)
Minnesota Saturday (Could be a huge game for both teams)
@Ohio State March 2 (should be a lose OSU is playing too well right now)
Home VS. Wisconsin March 6 (never an easy game)

That is a tough stretch if you ask me. They could go 3-1 just as easily as they could go 0-4.

In my opinion whoever finishes fifth in the Big ten should be a tournament team.

A well timed Illinois losing streak coupled with some big gopher wins coudl be huge.

by tc_brent on Feb 22, 2010 3:11 PM CST reply actions

although

it maybe benefitial for the Gophers to finish sixth in the League so long as they maintain a .500 record or better. They would likely end up playing either PSU or Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten tournament which should be a win. They would than play the 3 seed which would likely be Mich State, which the gophers have played tough twice, and could possibly beat them this time.

If we finish 5th we would get a bye in the 1st round and likely play Bucky our first game. Yikes! If we get past them than we would likely play Purdue. YIkes!

by tc_brent on Feb 22, 2010 5:00 PM CST reply actions