An Early Prediction for the 2010 Football Schedule

by Buck Bravo on Feb 23, 2010 3:00 AM CST Comment 5 comments

The stage is set for 2010 to be a benchmark season for Gopher football. Head coach Tim Brewster's recruits will finally make up the majority of the team and his plan for the program will be put to the test. TCF Bank will be entering a second season without the inaugural publicity of 2009. The schedule will feature some strong opponents. Success in 2010 could launch the program towards a successful future, but failure could submarine the program straight back to the 1990s.

Let's take a look at the 2010 schedule with the final Sagarin rankings for 2009. First, here's how Minnesota has trended in their season Sagarin rankings:

Sagarin2_medium

Even though 2007 was a horrid season, Brewster's tenure has featured teams that are improving each year when strength of schedule is taken into account. Basically, the 2009 Gophers were about equal in strength to the 2001 Gophers.

As for 2010, how do the Sagarin rankings of the opponents on the schedule compare to prior years?:

Historically, Minnesota rarely defeats a team that finishes the season in the top 40 of Sagarin rankings. Tim Brewster's lone top 40 victory was versus Air Force in 2009. If all teams (including the Gophers) field similar teams in 2010, the Gophers' record could be predicted as follows:

2010sagarin_medium

Using 2009 rankings as a comparison, there are five games that Minnesota will probably lose and four games that they will probably win. That would leave three games in limbo that could be the difference between 4-8 and 7-5. So, based upon a premature look using 2009 data, a 6-6 season wouldn't be all that bad and a 7-5 season should be the realistic target. An eight win season may be a long shot.

2010 will be the litmus test for the Tim Brewster era. If his recruits live up to their hype and will make for a better team than past regimes, this coming season will be looked upon as the historical turning point for the program. If the team does not improve over 2009, the future won't be so bright.

Since my glass is usually half full on these matters, I'll predict a 7-5 regular season that draws criticism from the usual suspects.

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Comments

A couple of thoughts

(1) I suppose it’s a good thing that our four toughest opponents, Sagarin-wise, are at home. However, on the flip side, I’d be more confident about those middle games (Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, MTSU) if they were at TCF.

(2) I know Sagarin is rating the 2009 vintage, but USC and Purdue are going to punch way above their 2009 numbers this year. SC will be top 2-3, and Purdue gains the services of QB Robert Marve and keeps Ryan Kerrigan.

(3) I think the 5-7 to 7-5 range is a reasonable expectation at this point for the 2010 team, without knowing what happens in the spring and summer with team developments, player defections, etc. Much like 2009, however, there is going to be an aesthetic component that is very important. Brewster’s teams don’t exactly close well or inspire confidence, and this schedule is brutal. Again, a trophy win or upset really needs to show up in the near future.

by JG2112 on Feb 23, 2010 7:55 AM CST reply actions

Line Play

I think someone spiked your Koo-Aid Buck. 7-5 is possible if we get much improved line play, particularily from our offensive line. Most of the line is returning and very experienced now. I’m not sure that is a good thing though, given their play last year. Was it inexperience of just a lack of talent. I think it was more of the latter than the former, and I would predict 5-7 record if pressed. Brewster has not yet shown he can beat a good team, so that is 5 losses right there. We will also drop a couple games between the (could go either way) or (should win) categories. Go with the MN sports-fan self preservation mentality and plan for the worst, that way you won’t be as dissappointed, and if they exceed your expectations it’s even sweeter.

by Narby on Feb 23, 2010 8:19 AM CST reply actions

The other 3 wins?

Buck, assuming that the Gophers win the 4 games that you mention they should win based on the Sagarin rankings, is it safe to assume that you believe that the other three wins will all come from those ? games? Just curious.

"You want a toe? I can get you a toe, believe me. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it, believe me."

by jerdogg1 on Feb 23, 2010 11:34 AM CST reply actions