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Predicting 2010 Big Ten Team Strength With Recruiting Ratings

My post last Fall that used recruiting ratings for current rosters to predict Big Ten team strength was one of my more popular articles for the year.  Building off of that article, let's take a look at how predictions for the 2010 season might look now that signing day has passed.

The scores for each team are calculated using recruiting ratings of the players that are on the roster.  Ratings are pro-rated so that the impact of seniors and juniors versus freshmen is taken into account.  Rivals.com ratings are used for the calculations.

For reference, let's look at the 2009 predictions:


2009bargraph_medium

And for the upcoming 2010 season:

2010bigtenpredicted_medium

For 2010, Ohio State and Michigan still have the definitive advantage in talent.  Michigan fans have previously given feedback that many of Michigan's talented players left the program.  In fact, Michigan has lost quite a few more of their recruits than other programs.  Therefore, their predicted strength is probably overstated. 

Minnesota fans can look forward to a squad that should finally have a similar talent level to border rivals Wisconsin and Iowa.  Let's take a closer look at how improved recruiting classes should finally begin to pay off for the Gophers:

Borderbattle_medium

Now, it is important to remember that these ratings are estimates and do not account for attrition.  For example, the 2007 Minnesota rating does not account for the loss of Alex Daniels, Dominic Jones, and several others.  2008 was the first middle-upper tier recruiting class for the Gophers, and in 2010 that class should be expected to start making a strong impact as juniors.

These predictions are based on recruiting ratings, and recruiting ratings only.  Coaching, strength of schedule, player attrition, and other intangibles indefinitely contribute to the strength of a team.  Regardless, Minnesota fans can reasonably expect a more talented squad in 2010 than they have seen in several years.

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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Coach of the Year

Ferentz was deserving of the award last year, but I may have voted for Fitzgerald based on BB’s charts above. That effort NU put into their bowl game I thought was the most inspired of any I saw the whole bowl season.

by Texas Gopher on Feb 9, 2010 7:24 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

recruiting

Obviously high level recruiting hasn’t translated into wins for Michigan, and Northwestern has done an exceptional job.

by bobbyspringfield on Feb 9, 2010 9:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Michigan lost several recruits to transfers and expulsion. More so than other programs. Northwestern is the exception, even though they lost to the Gophers last year.

Buck Bravo

by Buck Bravo on Feb 9, 2010 9:26 AM CST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little confused

I thought Rivals had the Gophers recruiting ranked higher than the Badgers this year. (Something like 51st vs 84th.) But your chart shows that Wisconsin is rated slightly higher. And now that I’m looking at it, weren’t we a tad higher last year too?

by Jayrome007 on Feb 9, 2010 11:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think

you saw a different ratings service. I know there are major differences, showing that this is a very inexact science.

"they're calling insane hogs???"

by CrowTrobot on Feb 10, 2010 8:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This is a composite of each year’s entire roster, not each individual class. Minnesota is lower than wisconsin because there weren’t very good classes until 2008.

Buck Bravo

by Buck Bravo on Feb 10, 2010 8:18 AM CST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, I see

Gotcha. Thanks, that clarifies it.

by Jayrome007 on Feb 10, 2010 9:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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