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Bubble-ology (Wk 2) or How I learned to stop worrying and love the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

Bubble_medium More Bubble-babble.  This is clearly Gopher-centric as the Gophers are creeping back into the conversation.

Blogs I'm using as a resource for this project. 

The Gophers blew a golden opportunity to catapult themselves up this list and probably into an actual seed when they couldn't hold on to against Purdue.  But they did redeem themselves a bit with a nice road win over Illinois.  This win gives us any head-to-head advantage when it comes to Big Ten standings over Illinois.  Currently the Illini are in the Tournament despite a lower RPI, weaker strength of schedule and the recent loss to the Gophers.  But their 10-6 Big Ten record is currently what drives their seeding.  The Illini are heading to Ohio State and then hosting Wisconsin this week so 0-2 is a realistic scenario for them, expect to see them on this list next week.

As far as the Gophers are concerned they absolutely need to go 2-0 to finish out the season and then start picking off the teams ahead of them one at a time.

Record RPI ∆ in RPI SOS Conf Rnk Lst Wk
Virginia Tech 21-7 52 - 132 3rd (t) 0-2 Relatively Safe
Florida 20-9 46 +7 45 3rd (t) 1-1 Relatively Safe
Marquette 19-9 50 +9 56 5th (t) 2-0 Relatively Safe
UConn 17-12 44 +1 2 9th (t) 1-1 Relatively Safe
St. Mary's 24-5 45 +1 138 2nd 3-0 Likely IN
San Diego State 20-8 38 - 62 4th 2-1 Likely IN
Mississippi St 21-8 56 +9 63 3rd (t) 2-0 Likely IN
UAB 23-5 34 -3 108 3rd 2-0 Likely IN
Notre Dame 19-10 68 +12 53 8th 2-0 Less than 50/50
Minnesota 17-11 71 +5 42 6th 1-1 Less than 50/50
Dayton 19-9 42 +1 39 6th (t) 1-1 Less than 50/50
Rhode Island 20-7 36 -11 68 6th (t) 1-0 Less than 50/50
Mississippi 19-9 55 +8 114 6th (t) 2-0 Likely OUT
Seton Hall 16-11 63 -11 20 9th (t) 1-1 Likely OUT
Cincinatti 16-12 58 -2 14 9th (t) 1-1 Likely OUT
Memphis 21-8 64 -4 105 2nd 1-1 Likely OUT
Washington 19-9 53 +7 55 3rd 1-0 Lots of work to do
Arizona State 20-9 54 +4 71 2nd 1-1 Lots of work to do
Charlotte 19-9 62 -7 100 5th 1-1 Lots of work to do
Wichita State 23-8 51 -1 128 2nd 1-1 Lots of work to do
South Florida 17-11 66 +2 41 9th (t) 1-1 Lots of work to do

 

Once again the Big East is the most intriguing.  There are several teams vying to get themselves IN and most of them are currently sitting at 8th or 9th in conference.  UConn is a great example of a 9th place team fighting to get in as they are surging as of late.  Their #2 SOS rank is carrying them a long way right now, but they'll have to keep winning along the way to stay in.  Marquette is moving up based on a 2-0 week but this week isn't going to be easy as they play Louisville and Notre Dame.  Speaking of the Irish they also have a difficult week as they get UConn and Marquette this week.  Something has to give with all of these Big East teams.  Seton Hall and Cincinnati are also fighting to get in.  Cincy has another tough week but Seton Hall can make up some serious ground with 2 winable games this week.

The SEC intrigue all comes down to the leading teams in the West Division.  Mississippi State is leading this weaker division but they are barely clinging to life.  Their weekend tilt with Tennessee should determine a lot for the Bulldogs.  Ole Miss on the other hand is barely outside of the Tournament looking in.  Fortunately for the Rebs they have two very winable games this week before the SEC Tournament.  Florida is also in the bubble conversation though they are relatively safe for now.  They travel to Vandy this week in a game that will either solidify their seed or bring them back to the dreaded Bubble.

Arizona State stumbled a bit this week going 1-1 and they trending downward in most bracket projections.  Washington's RPI went up 7 spots but they are still generally considered out in most scenarios.  Their schedule is still pretty easy and their resume will only get stronger a week from now.

The Mid-Majors is where the Gophers can make up the most ground.  It really would take just one loss by SDSU, UAB or St. Mary's for the Gophers to jump them in the pecking order.  Not sure how likely this is to happen but that is what may help the most.

Games that Matter this Week, and what we need to happen.

The most important game of the week is Minnesota at Michigan on Tuesday night.  A must win that would avenge our lack-luster loss to the Wolverines last month and it would boost our road record. 

MONDAY

  • no significant games

TUESDAY

  • Illinois at Ohio State - Go Buckeyes for a couple reasons.  First of all if we stay put as the 6 seed in the B10 Tourney, I want Purdue to drop down into the 3rd seed so we can play them.  But I also want to see Illinois go 0-2 so the Gophers have a shot at catching them in the standings.  And did I mention our RPI is stronger than Illinois?
  • Villanova at Cincinnati - I think the Bearcats are safely behind us but that can all change with a home win over a top-10 team.
  • Vanderbilt at Florida - Need Vandy to bring the Gators back to the Bubble pack.
  • Louisville at Marquette - read the Florida blurb above

WEDNESDAY - holy cow there are some huge head-to-head games for Bubble teams.

  • Memphis at UAB - this a VERY intriguing match up.  Both are desperate for a win and whoever loses may be relegated to the NIT.
  • Connecticut at Notre Dame - read above.  Both teams are surging.  This game will catapult one and force the other to have a big Big East Tournament.
  • Charlotte at Rhode Island - both are on outside looking in.  Winner stays in the conversation, loser falls off my list and is one less team I'll track.
  • Miss State at Auburn - should be an MSU win, but there is always hope for the road upset.
  • Colorado State at San Diego State - this one shouldn't have much drama.  A home win for the Aztecs is very likely.  A loss to the Rams would drop-kick them to the NIT.

The action picks up as we get to the weekend.  If I get time, I'll do a mid-week Bubble-ology.  But if not use the list of Bubble teams above and cheer for them all to lose.

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IMO

The best way for the gophers to secure a tournament spot is to finish fifth in the big ten. I believe that a weak ACC and comparatively weak SEC will mean that there are five spots available for the Big Ten. I think, unless one of the lower teams win the big ten tournament, the selection committee will select the top five Big Ten teams.

by tc_brent on Mar 1, 2010 2:58 PM CST reply actions  

a 6th B10 team is very possible

they REALLY don’t look at all at how many teams from a particular conference get in. Illinois’s standing will have nothing to do with Minnesota’s viability. If we win out and get a win or two in the B10 Tourney we might be OK, depending on how other teams finish. Even if Illinois wins one of their remaining games to get in, we can still grab a spot.

It comes down to our RPI and getting more Ws. We have to get back near 60 or better in RPI and we’ll need that 20th win. Finishing 10-8 in the Big Ten will be huge as well. But our stock is not dependent on Illinois going 0-2.

Think about it this way. Assume Illinois grabs the 5th seed in B10. We still go 2-0 plus a B10 Tourney win. While that happens St. Mary’s, SDSU, Notre Dame, Miss St and UAB all lose a game or two. We’d move up above them because our wins and RPI would all increase while their’s would decrease. We’d get in. We just plain have to win our next 3 games, somehow hope we land Purdue in the quarterfinals to get a 4th win and lock it up. 3-0 gets us in though we might need a tiny bit of help.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 1, 2010 4:25 PM CST up reply actions  

that all sounds good...

i am simply saying that I think they are going to, at minimum, take 5 big ten teams. They may take more, but I really don’t think they will take less. IF they gophers finish the regular season in fifth place i think they go.

On a side not, say I am wrong, that finishing in fifth place in the reg. season does not guarantee a spot, would it be better for the gophers to win out, finish fifth and lose there first big ten tournament game, or win out, finsh sixth, win the first Big ten tournament game, and lose the next one?

by tc_brent on Mar 1, 2010 4:38 PM CST up reply actions  

any 3 win scenario is best

so winning out and losing right away to Wisconsin is worse than winning out, finishing 6th and beating Indiana.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 1, 2010 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

really

any scenario where we get to play Purdue in quarterfinals is IDEAL. Like I said in the post, we all know that they are missing Hummel, but the RPI doesn’t.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 1, 2010 4:45 PM CST up reply actions  

oops

I meant to say Pac-10 not ACC.

by tc_brent on Mar 1, 2010 3:23 PM CST reply actions  

Just win baby!

It’s the only thing you can control on your own. Praying might help too.

by Odin on Mar 1, 2010 6:59 PM CST reply actions  

Well...........

So lets throw this out there: How about we win the Big Ten tourney and punch our own ticket into the dance. Its time for Minnesota to step outta the shadows of the big boys and begin its ascent to a permanent place on top of the Big Ten. Or we lose to Michigan and start looking forward to football season when USC yes the University of Southern California comes to TCF.

by Golden goatphers on Mar 1, 2010 8:46 PM CST reply actions  

Morgan St Needs Our Help

Guys, Morgan State is behind to North Carolina A & T at half. The Morgan St. that the Gophers crushed have crept up to 109 in the RPI. They need to keep winning and help us and creep into the top 100.

So 2nd half starts in ten, send them our vibes.

PS – Goatpher, I believe. : )

by InflectionPoint on Mar 1, 2010 8:57 PM CST reply actions  

good catch

they won, they are a conference champ and have won 15 of their last 17!

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 1, 2010 11:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Stephen F Austin is also a 20 win team

but they are second in their conference

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 1, 2010 11:15 PM CST up reply actions  

2 games

The only two games that matter this week are #1 Gophers vs. Wolverines if we dont take care of buisness then this is all for not #2 Illini vs. Badgers In my opinion Illinois will lose to Ohio State on the road but will come home and give everything they have against a Wisconsin team that doesn’t have its back against the wall which could be bad news for the Gophs. If Illinois beats Sconny that would be a huge blow to our tourney chaces, at the moment saturdays victory has put just enough doubt into the selection commitees heads to the point where it becomes a who can do more from this point on between Minnesota and Illinois and the maroon and gold surely has the easier schedule however………Illinois has a chance to cement its spot with 1 win in the next two games.

by Golden goatphers on Mar 2, 2010 3:41 PM CST reply actions  

Illinois doesn't really matter

I don’t think Illinois beating Wisconsin would have much, if any, bearing on our chances.

In fact, it could improve it. If Illinois and the Gophers both win out, we will finish 6th and get to play Indiana or Penn State first in the tournament. That won’t be so bad. It gives us a chance to pad our win total a bit. If we finish 5th, it means a 1st round game against Wisconsin which is certainly no gimme of a win.

by rencito on Mar 2, 2010 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm starting to seriously doubt Illinois

why are they a lock and we are currently out?

Ill
Record – 18-11
RPI – 70
SOS – 56
Big wins – Vandy, Clemson, Wis, MSU
Bad Losses – Utah, Bradley, Northwestern

Minn
Record – 17-11
RPI – 71
SOS – 42
Big wins – Butler, OSU, Wis
Bad losses – NU, Ind, Mich, Miami

Oh and a head-to-head win AT ILLINOIS. The biggest difference is they are 10-6 in conference, we are 8-8. But I don’t understand why their resume is so much stronger right now.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 2, 2010 4:55 PM CST reply actions  

Burst

Michigan just burst our bubble……..In fact they didn’t take a nice sharp pin to it they took a torch to it stomped on it then pressure washed it right down the drain. Yeah this team is so up and and down that this unpredictable let down was nearly predictable.

by Golden goatphers on Mar 2, 2010 9:31 PM CST reply actions  

I know

and it sucks because of the other four games that mattered last night 3 of them went in the Gopher’s favor. Illinois lost, Florida lost at home and Cincy lost at home.

What sucks even more is that I spent all kinds of time doing another Bubble-ology for this weekend’s games. I won’t be posting it. :(

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Mar 3, 2010 10:44 AM CST up reply actions  

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