Gophers Get a Confidence Building Win over Virginia Tech
by GopherNation on Nov 30, 2011 11:01 PM CST
in Gopher Basketball
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PrintGopher basketball suffered maybe their most devastating injury in school history and quickly bounced back with a scrappy effort and an improbable win over their ACC opponent, Virginia Tech. Not many thought this was going to happen but this was a very good effort by the Gophers. Julian Welch and Rodney Williams combined to score 21 of the team's 33 second half points and led the offensive charge to beat the Hokies. Elliott Eliason played his part defending the paint while contributing 8 points and 7 rebounds.
I said before the game that this game has very little to do with Virginia Tech and really the outcome was almost a secondary concern. There were a lot of questions coming into the game and at least for one night I think I learned a few things about the Gopher basketball team today.
1 - Elliott Eliason is undoubtedly our best defensive player. He isn't all-Big Ten defensively but he made a difference tonight and he did it without leaving his feet trying to block shots. I desperately wish we had a perimeter player or two who could play some D but I fear Eliason is the best we have.
2 - Defensively we still stink as a team. Tonight we played better on-the-ball defense but on the helpside we still are terrible. We sit too deep, we react too slow when the ball moves and because of that we don't get to shooters.
3 - Julian Welch should be playing point guard, with Andre Hollins playing off-guard. This one maybe wasn't exactly obvious from tonight's game anymore than any other game. But Welch just looks comfortable with the ball, he can penetrate while controlling his dribble and he still sees the floor. Certainly we need him as a scorer but I fear Tubby is making an incorrect PG decision again. Andre wasn't bad but I think Julian would run our offense better AND still be able to get his points.
4 - I still think what we saw tonight from Chip Armelin is fools gold. I know you got 9 points out of him tonight but it isn't ever going to be consistent. He is an OK shooter, he is an OK defender but he is willing to take some shots, which some guys are reluctant to do. He is a nice spark off the bench but please don't get too excited about his 9 points tonight.
I know that Rodney Williams and Julian Welch led the team offensively and they both played very well but for my money Elliott Eliason was the player of the game.
With a derth available big men, Elliott Eliason took advantage of the playing time opportunity. The big man played with some passion, grabbed seven rebounds, scored a few buckets in the paint, played all 20 minutes of the 2nd half (technically he sat for 8.5 seconds but that is close enough) and defended the lane like a big-man should. He didn't lead the team in scoring and he isn't filling the shoes of Mbakwe, but he is the one guy played like he was taking advantage of his opportunity. But the best thing he added to the game was his interior defense. Eliason defended the post by keeping himself between his man and the basket making his guy shoot over him, which is not easy to do. When guards penetrated the lane, Eliason was there to slow them down. He wasn't perfect but he looked the part of a solid big man tonight who will be capable of anchoring the post in Big Ten play.
I don't want to take too much away from Rodney, he too played a very good game (on the offensive end). He certainly looked as though he was stepping up to try and lead his team. Rodney also played all 20 minutes of the second half and down the stretch he was the focal point of the offense posting his man up on most possessions. His offense was crucial tonight and it will be for the rest of the season if we are to win many more games. He still struggles mightily on the other end of the floor. Most nights his offense will outweigh his lack of defense and tonight certainly qualifies as one of those nights. He is a mature kid who is so gifted athletically. He is the new focal point of the team.
This game was a very nice win for the Gophers but I hope we don't get too excited by this one. Virginia Tech is an OK team who made a lot of mistakes tonight. And it should be noted that last year we beat Northwestern by 11 in the first game without Al Nolen. But it didn't take long for the book to be written about how to beat the Gophers. This team still has a long ways to go. It isn't like me to put a wet blanked on a win but we will need more, fortunately we have five more games to work things out before the Big Ten games.
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I may get a little big technical here digging into some Xs and Os but offensively I was very curious what the Gophers were going to run. They actually ran a few different looks offenses, none of which were new but I was just watching more intently tonight.
They started both halves with a four-out look and a lot perimeter screens (both on the ball and away from the ball). The screens were primarily set by Elliason and whoever passed the ball from the top of the key would screen away on the perimeter. This isn't a new offense, over the last few years we have seen a ton of great, high-low looks and open Sampson jumpers from the top of the key area. Eliason did set some nice screens forcing Virginia Tech to switch and give us some favorable matchups. This seems to be the primary offense from which they run set plays and then can still get into their offense.
Near the middle of the first half they were running a flex-cut, motion offense where upon ball reversal a screen is set at the opposite block for a cutter coming across the lane. I am personally a fan of this offense. At this level it is great to run for a stretch of a few minutes to get the defense looking away from the ball thinking only about the coming screen and not giving up a lay-up. But you need to switch out of it after using for a change of pace offense.
In the last few minutes of the first half then went with a 3-out, 2-in offense with Ingram and Rodney on the extended blocks with three guards in motion looking for penetration and dump opportunities. This offense led to a couple of open threes on penetration with a kick-out to weak side when the defense collapsed. But overall I'm not sure this is a great set for us right now. If our guards were more dangerous putting the ball on the floor, maybe, but I'm not confident enough in their ball-handling and decision making yet.
Our main set (the first one mentioned above) worked very well for us in the second half. Eliason on the top of the key setting great screens and Rodney posting up was a nice set that caused problems for Virginia Tech. Assuming Rodney can be a threat in the post this may open things up for someone to start making some threes. This offense works well for us and it will be interesting to see how it flows when Ralph comes back.
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As usual,
I agree with almost everything. But #3 is just wrong. Welch is more confident offensively, and is an asset posting up, but that’s all the more reason for him to play the 2.
Regardless, our best lineup has them both on the floor.
Best side effect if Trevor being out: more minutes for Welch.
Worst side effect: more minutes for Mav. He’s terrible on both ends and we can’t afford to play him.
Elliott was the big surprise tonight, in a good way.
I was also surprised that Oto, Joe and Ingram didn’t play in the second half. I think Oto deserves some minutes, but based only on tonight Elliott looks like a real threat to Ralph. This is the guy I saw in Canada last year.
Finally, perhaps the best part of the night was Trevor as chief cheerleader on the bench. I didn’t expect him to be there tonight, but he was and his enthusiasm and encouragement of his teammates was inspiring.
#3 is wrong
Partly because Andre Hollins is not useful as an off-guard. Welch can play point but then there is nobody who can shoot to play off guard.
I think Welch earned the minutes over Thanksgiving weekend. I don’t think Trevor’s injury is the reason why he’s playing more.
Teams will quickly figure out that they need to get Eliason in foul trouble and off the court. They still need Ralph back healthy.
Welch to point
has nothing to do with Andre being suited for the 2. Welch is secure with the ball. In the last 2-3 minutes he was running point.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
Oto
I’ve only seen the DePaul, Indiana St, Dayton, and VaTech games but Oto doesn’t even look like a D-1 player to me. It seems like every time he touches the ball he makes a bad decision.
I think that's too harsh
He’s young and inexperienced, but he’s shown hustle, versatility and an ability to shoot a little.
But yeah, he’s also made some bad mistakes.
Dre can shoot
But yeah, Welch is more comfortable spotting up, penetrating from the wing, and posting up, all of which makes him more suited to the off guard than Dre.
Also. Trevor’s injury has meant more guard minutes overall because we played three guards almost all night (if not all).
Rodney?
His offense usually makes up for his defense? What are you talking about? His four or so career double digit scoring games do what?
He played solid defense all night (really everyone did who wasn’t guarding Green, ahem Andre and Maverick), had 2 blocks, two steals, and showed he an actually grab a rebound. Not sure why you feel the need to take anything away from him after the best game of his career.
"most nights"
meaning this year.
And he did play awful defense last night. He gave up two open threes in the last 10 minutes because he was out of position and reacted so slow to ball movement.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
Rodney is always a plus in one column and a minus in another
You have to add them all up to determine if he was a net positive or net minus on any given night.
I thought Rodney looked great last night.
I really think moving to the 4 will help. He will be closer to the hoop thus able to utilize his strengths (leaping, and finishing), negate his weaknesses (Shooting, and dribling) while maybe helping him get more active on the glass. Only 1 game so it could be a fluke, but i thought he looked like he knew what to do when the ball came to him, which made him play with more confidence.
this is a good move for him
he was often getting the ball in his hands near the rim. Outstanding place for him offensively. His challenge is to be able to give this kind of output (or similar output) each game.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
by GopherNation on Dec 1, 2011 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
Great goes too far for me
I’d go with good. There are still stretches when he disappears.
I probably said it already, but he looks so much more comfortable at the 4 posting up in the paint. Unfortunately, he’s so slight that it’s going to hard to do against real competition.
I think he looks pretty strong
he is in very good shape this year
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
by GopherNation on Dec 1, 2011 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
He plays the wing in the 2-3 zone for one.
And what he plays doesn’t really matter if his man ends up out there.
or maybe your man is at the three point line and he can shoot
the position you play of offense shouldn’t be an excuse as to why you don’t guard your man on defense.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
by GopherNation on Dec 2, 2011 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
I would disagree with you on #3
I think when Welch isn’t playing the 2 spot, he can spell Dre at PG (not Mav please) but he looks more natural at the #2 to me. Dre will be better suited and has more upside at PG but he has a long ways to go. I can handle him making mistakes if I get the feeling he is learning from them (which I am not at the moment). EE really showed some instinctive BB skills. I was relieved to see the guys play with intensity and desire. Wins will be real tough to come by soon, but as long as the guys continue to work hard and improve, can’t ask for a lot more.
My thoughts
1) I like the offense some of the time – when the guards actually move. There are times where they just stand there and times where they cut well. 4 outside players (including Rodney, Oto or Ingram) and EE is a nice balanced look IMO.
2) Chip – he may not be consistent but I’d rather he get the backup guard minutes early in the game than Mav (how did Mav get 12 minutes and Oto only 2?). I like a physical guard who can rebound and take it inside. Not convinced he can shoot or should shoot the three. Also, can he play DB for us next fall? :)
3) EE – he played defense under control, although you saw the refs give him none of the benefit of the doubt when he gets fouled. I expect as he gets into Big10 season keeping him out of foul trouble will become even more difficult.
4) Tubby/team – I have to give majore credit to the team for getting up for this game and Tubby for generally making the right moves. Defense fought through screens a little better. 2-3 should be scrapped (if anything, do a 1-3-1 to change it up, otherwise stick to man).
5) Free throws – Seriously. Less than 50% from the line from Chip and Rodney? This means Chip can’t be used at all in the last 4 minutes of a game and Rodney only for defense/rebounding.
Agree with most of that
Except I don’t mind the 2-3 for the little bit we use it.
Chip continues to look like a guy who’s confident offensively, and that’s something in short supply on this team. We need that from him. It would be nice if he could play better D and makes some free throws too.
I like the offense when the guards move too, and I like it when they penetrate. Getting to the rim (or even just the paint) is now essential for this time, can no longer be as focused on playing inside-out. The good news is that each of Dre, Welch and Chip can take guys off the dribble, and Austin too from time to time. They need to do it even more.
I like that Armelin is lefthanded
It gives a different look when he comes in and he catches some defenders by surprise.
Welch/Hollins
I could be wrong, and I’m OK with that.
But my point is that I think Welch would get just as many scoring opportunities as point as he does at SG. He knows when to penetrate and he knows when to shoot. It is not like the point in our offense doesn’t get shots, after the first pass of the offense the spots are basically interchangeable. Hollins got 8 shots last night to Welch’s 6.
But remember Nolen getting penetration opportunities for lay-ups (sometimes missed), he knew when to get by people and he was able to contain his dribble while driving. I see Welch being more like that than Hollins. Andre just doesn’t look as comfortable with the ball on the floor.
I want them both on the floor, but I would prefer JW at point and AH at SG. I think you get the same production out of Welch and maybe a bit more out of Hollins.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
I tend to agree with this line of thinking...
at least for the time being. I think Andre has loads more talent, and probably will develop into a good ball handler and maybe even a good point guard in the future but, until he gets comfortable with the the pace of play/physicality of NCAA basketball i think getting him off the ball will be more benefitial. Plus Welch, in my opinion, looks much better running the offense than Dre.
Side Question: Does anyone else get the feeling that Bobby Knight thinks all of the problems in the world can be solved with a good shot fake or bounce pass?
Maybe that's part of it
Maybe I’m projecting Dre as a top quality point down the road, which I think is where he has the most potential. But that only reinforces my thinking he needs to be at point now.
At this point, the season is all about getting guys experience so they can develop into much better players down the line.
Knight
World Peace can be achieved with proper spacing and staying out of the corners :)
That said, I like listening to him – I feel like there is a true storytelling narrative about the game and how it relates to his basketball history (he has been around basketball since Naismith but i digress). This nicer Knight (at least he doesn’t take the players or referees’ mistakes personally) is a good fit for a college basketball analyst.
I don't see it
Dre has looked comfortable with the ball to me. Welch too, of course, but to me they look like they are in the right roles. But you’re right that there isn’t that big a difference on the offensive end what’s expected of the two guard positions on the of the floor.
Very Well Stated Opinions
Not many times does poor defense hold a team to 55 points.
Many questions remain but a nice W regardless.
I think a rotation of Williams, Sampson, Eliason, A-Hollins, D-Hollins, Welch, and Armelin (maybe Oto or Coleman eventually) can produce some more nice W.
Goals are the same. 25 W and NCAA (at least 1 W there).
Even with Mbakwe
25 W would have been a long shot.
I do agree that looking at it from a long term perspective four years ago this was the hope and I still think it is the measuring stick to use. In the short term, I think 20 wins should be the goal this year, which is going to be a real challenge. The B1G is looking pretty strong this year—or perhaps more accurately, the bottom of the conference is much improved.
20 W Is Aiming Too Low, I Think
Tubby lost 8 seniors of his 1996 Georgia team that had 21 W and made Sweet 16. His 1997 Georgia team set a school record (still stands today) with 24 W.
12 W OOC – 12 W in B10 & tourney – 1 W in NCAA = 25 W goal.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 1, 2011 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
in 1996 in Georgia
Did Tubby have an AD who drove off what should have been the best player on that team? Did he lose the best player he had left to injury? Did what should have been his starting point guard transfer because he didn’t want to be suspended for the second time for off-court conduct?
And most importantly, did he have to play in the B1G?
Before last night’s game and after Trevor’s injury, I would have said there is no way we will get to 20 this year (assuming we are talking regular season wins). Now I will just say it’s unlikely. So I guess that makes it as okay goal.
25 wins might have been a good goal with Trevor, although I would not have bet on achieving that.
Doesn't Matter
He lost 8 quality seniors off the 96 team and IMPROVED their record in 97 in a very competitive SEC. The SEC then > B10. Tubby and Georgia beat # 1 seed Purdue in 96 NCAA.
Aim high on goals if you hope to achieve them. 25 W is a reasonable goal. May not get there but why not try?
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 3, 2011 8:13 AM CST up reply actions
Loosing seniors is different
You plan for that. You don’t plan for injuries and getting screwed by your AD.
25 may be ambitious
but I think we should still make the tournament.
I think people over rate how good the middle and bottom of the Big Ten is going to be. Teams like Iowa, Nebraska, and Penn State could produce wins for us both home and away (minus Penn State, we only play them once at home). Teams like Indiana, Illinois, and Northwestern could produce splits. And we only play Ohio State and Michigan (two of the best three teams in the conference probably) once. Why is everyone in panic mode thinking we can’t make the tournament and it would be some kind of miracle if we did? If we win out in our non-conference schedule, we’re sitting at 12-1, with possibly three decent wins (Fairfield is a decent team, Indiana State is going to win the MVC imo). Then, just go 10-8 in conference (wins vs. Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State (5) is already half way there).
Maybe I’m crazy but I think a lot of people on here over rate some of the Big Ten teams just a little too much. And if Ralph gets back and plays like he usually does (nothing special, I know) he’ll at least give us two 5’s so no one gets in extreme foul trouble.
My prediction is 22 wins (not counting the Big Ten Tournament). I expect them to be competitive in every conference game, including the one against Ohio State (it’s at home). Our conference schedule is the most favorable it has been since they established the new format and that’s going to be a huge help down the line.
I look at the schedule
And can’t get above 8 big ten wins, even agreeing with you about conference strength.
That’s being optimistic that we will be able score. Which is going to be a struggle.
Ohio State will beat us by 30. Not so much because we are bad as because they are a nightmare match up for our soft bigs. This is assuming no Mo.
Speaking of which, my dad swears Mo will be back in January, but I think he’s just parroting Sid. He asked Mo after the game yesterday but the big guy just shrugged.
Let's look at that conference schedule
@ Illinois – (L) Probably a loss. Assembly Hall tough place to play but Illinois in general still doesn’t scare me.
@ Michigan – (L) – Beat them away last year, almost beat them at home with no point guard. This game will be close and could still go our way. Michigan is over rated and has no size that scares me.
vs Iowa – (W) – Iowa is getting better but not good enough to win at the Barn.
vs Purdue – (Toss up) – NOt the team they used to be. No dominating big like Johnson to give Ralph fits and I think our athletic wing players can at least slightly limit Hummel. Lewis Jackson probably gives us the biggest problem but by then, our younger guards will be ready.
@ Indiana – (L) – Only because we’ve had trouble winning there the last 4 years or so. They don’t scare me though, still not there yet.
@ Penn State – (W) – This team is bad.
vs Northwestern – (W) – Mirkovic is their only big and even Ralph can handle him for the most part. Three pointers scare me but we can probably still beat them at the Barn
@ Michigan State – (L) – Minnesota hasn’t won at Michigan State in like 15 years.
vs Illinois (W) – Maybe I’m over confident, but I have no respect for Illinois. Their coach is over rated and their team chemistry is always very questionable.
@ Iowa (W) – Killed them last year. I just think we match up with them well, considering their best shooter (Gatens) is slow enough for our guys to guard him
@ Nebraska – (W) – It’s Nebraska.
vs Wisconsin – (Toss up) – We play the Badgers very well at the Barn, especially recently. I think it’ll probably end up a loss but I need more opportunities to watch Wisconsin before I make a final judgement.
vs Ohio State – (L) – They’re a top 3 team in the country and we’re not.
@ Northwestern – (Toss up) – Always a weird place to play since it’s a high school gym.
vs Michigan State – (L) – Green scares me match up wise, as does Payne. They will probably be better as the season goes on because of some of their younger talent getting experience (Appling). Though you could possibly say the same for us (Hollins, Hollins, Welch, Eliason, Oto, Coleman…)
vs Indiana – (W) – They will be much improved by this point in the season but I still say we defend the Barn against the middle of the pack team.
@ Wisconsin – (L) – Kohl Center is where dreams usually go to die.
vs Nebraska – (W) – Senior Night and it’s Nebraska
So that’s 8 wins, 7 losses, 3 toss ups. Obviously, these are my own predictions and opinions but I would say there isn’t anything too insane in there. So, I might kind of agree with you, but something in me still thinks they get to 10 conference wins, even though that sounds dumb. Heck, it sounds dumb to me even now because they haven’t had 10 wins in conference during the Tubby Smith Era (which is kind of unbelievable). Basically, losing Trevor is going to set us back to where we usually are (besides last year): praying on Selection Sunday
I agree with most of your games BUT
all of the toss-ups (especially Wis/Pur) are losses.
And I’m not so sure about NU at home either, they make a ton of threes and we cannot guard the three. 7-11 seems about right +/- 1 game
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
by GopherNation on Dec 2, 2011 10:44 AM CST up reply actions
I think
Nebraska beats us in Lincoln (the difference between us and them isn’t as great as you think)
Northwestern takes one from us
Indiana is definitely better than us; we lose both of those
Same thing with Illinois
I would say 6-12 in the conference is realistic for us.
The Mbakwe difference
Is probably 3-4 games and a tourney bid. Although if Eliason plays like he did on Wednesday throughout the season, I think we could be closer to .500 in conference. But I’m not going to hold my breath on that one.
I honestly think Ralph makes this team worse. He plays with no energy or urgency.
that basically my feeling
Except when Ralph plays with energy which happen occasionally.
by amiller92 on Dec 2, 2011 5:20 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
for personal reasons
I am duty bound to disagree about Nebraska.
by amiller92 on Dec 2, 2011 5:19 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
22 W Going Into B10T
Agree with that as a target.
by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 3, 2011 8:14 AM CST up reply actions
NIT will be a nice accomplishment
and that is what I am hoping for—-to me, that is realistic yet challenging. I just cannot imagine an NCAA tourney team this year. With TM yes, but not now..
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