Can Minnesota get to a bowl game in 2012?

by Meager Reader on Dec 13, 2011 1:12 AM CST

Is it too early to start talking about 2012? Since people are already starting to do it, I thought I might as well chip in and give my two cents. Besides, GopherNation said this:

When you end the season on a high note it is natural to start looking ahead to next season with renewed home and optimism (at least it is natural for me). So why wait till spring football or July positional previews to start looking at the 2012 Gopher football team?

Exactly.

What I'm going to do in this post is take a very quick glance at Minnesota's 2012 schedule and try to hypothesize if they can make it to a bowl game. You can obviously share your thoughts in the comments below.

This isn't going to discuss the Gophers overall as a team, and who's going to be on the roster. If you're interested in that, GopherNation does a fantastic run-down of Minnesota's offensive and defensive positions. It's definitely worth checking out before you read this.

Here's Minnesota's 2012 schedule:

at UNLV
New Hampshire
Western Michigan
Syracuse
at Iowa
Northwestern
at Wisconsin
Purdue
Michigan
at Illinois
at Nebraska
Michigan State

First, some preliminary overall thoughts. Is the schedule that tough? Well, for a rebuilding team, yes. The Gophers luckily miss Penn State and Ohio State (again), but they also don't get to go up against the Big Ten's other cellar-dweller, Indiana. Yet Minnesota still has to go up against Wisconsin, and of course all the teams from the Legends Division. No breaks from those guys, ever.

So, can Minnesota get to a bowl? To attempt to answer this and consider all sides, I'm going to present three scenarios. The first two are based purely on feelings, and third is a combination of the two, looking at the season pragmatically and realistically.

Note: The following is just a rudimentary prediction. Feel free to dispute any wins or losses I predict.

Okay, here's the first one.

Optimistic Scenario:

at UNLV (W)
New Hampshire (W)
Western Michigan (W)
Syracuse (W)
at Iowa (W)
Northwestern (W)
at Wisconsin (L)
Purdue (W)
Michigan (L)
at Illinois (W)
at Nebraska (L)
Michigan State (L)

Overall 2012 Record: 8-4

Aside from a perfect 12-0 record, this is the best that Gopher fans should hope for. Minnesota wins all of its non-conference games and makes a statement in the Big Ten. It beats Iowa (again), and by the end, the Gophers are more middle of the pack than bottom feeder. This is a very optimistic turnaround that would show that Jerry Kill can quickly produce results. More importantly, the Gophers get to go to a bowl. Most likely bowl game: Either Pizza Bowl or Gator Bowl.

Negative/Frustrating Scenario:

at UNLV (L)
New Hampshire (L)
Western Michigan (L)
Syracuse (W)
at Iowa (L)
Northwestern (L)
at Wisconsin (L)
Purdue (W)
Michigan (L)
at Illinois (W)
at Nebraska (L)
Michigan State (L)

Overall 2012 Record: 3-9

This means that the rebuilding thing is going to take a long, long time. Minnesota can't pull off all but one non-conference matchup, and only really has a shot to beat Illinois and Purdue, which I consistently list as Gopher wins. Purdue shouldn't be much better in 2012, and Illinois is getting a new coach, so I have no idea what's going on there.

This last one is, as I said, a combination of the two.

Realistic Scenario:

at UNLV (W)
New Hampshire (W)
Western Michigan (L)
Syracuse (W)
at Iowa (L)
Northwestern (L)
at Wisconsin (L)
Purdue (W)
Michigan (L)
at Illinois (W)
at Nebraska (L)
Michigan State (L)

Overall 2012 Record: 5-7

Honestly, I can't see Minnesota getting to a bowl game, but I can see some progress being made. I still think Minnesota can take out Purdue and Illinois (see above), but those might end up being Minnesota's only Big Ten wins. The Gophers would again finish sixth in the Legends Division, but at least they'd have a better record.

What we can conclude: Minnesota's non-conference schedule is absolutely critical in the Gophers' quest to get to a bowl game. In both my optimistic/negative scenarios, the non-conference play dictated a huge part of the overall record, and the overall play that became the season. Win out the non-conference games, and Minnesota has a completely better season. While there will still be tough games and likely losses, the Gophers will have enough momentum to carry them through the difficult schedule. Of course, stumbling in the non-conference schedule will almost certainly dictate a repeat of 2011.

Key games:

Northwestern. This is arguably Minnesota's most important game of 2012 and, even though it is not near the end of the season, it may become the game that decides whether or not the Gophers eventually go to a bowl. Minnesota should have a distinct advantage if they are prepared, because the Wildcats lose Dan Persa, their playmaker at quarterback. Northwestern's defense is also a big question mark, and if Jerry Kill can improve the Gophers enough to exploit their weaknesses, Minnesota could be looking at a possible 6-6 record instead of 5-7.

Syracuse. Even at my most skeptical, I still think that Minnesota has enough moxie to take on the Orange. That makes it probably Minnesota's most important non-conference game. Depending on how positive or negative you are, this may very well be Minnesota's only non-conference win. The Gophers can simply not allow themselves to enter the Big Ten at 0-4. Even if they stumble out of the gate, Kill's squad should have improved enough by the time they face Syracuse.

Likely losses:

Michigan. Like it or not, the Wolverines are in the midst of a resurgence. Despite the team's 10-2 regular season record this year, Brady Hoke is still frustrated that they didn't get to the Big Ten championship game. Expect that to be his No. 1 priority next year. Michigan's defense has improved dramatically and, with ~~the best~~ one of the best recruiting classes arriving for 2012 [Edit - Michigan was No. 1 when this was written; it is now No. 3, behind Texas and Alabama], it only looks to get better. Barring a miracle, there's no way Minnesota can win this one.

Wisconsin. The Badgers may lose Russell Wilson and (likely) Montee Ball, but that's still not enough to weaken their depth chart—or, at least, it's not enough to make it so Minnesota has a shot to beat them. They still have James White at running back, and plenty of playmakers on defense returning. Plus, the cheeky Bret Bielema has said that he'll definitely consider any stars who'd like to transfer to Wisconsin at quarterback, including Dayne Crist. Bielema, you cheeky bastard.

Toss ups:

Western Michigan. This is Minnesota's toughest non-conference opponent, in my opinion. Don't knock the Broncos simply because they're a MAC team. They're definitely good enough to take on Minnesota. Watch them in the Pizza Bowl against Purdue and tell me if they suck. They won't. The only true variable is that ~~the Broncos lose Alex Carder at quarterback~~ as well as a couple of wide receivers [Edit - Carder will actually be a redshirt senior in 2012]. It's certainly foreseeable that a rebuilt Minnesota could easily trounce these guys, but it's also just as foreseeable that they won't.

Michigan State. The Gophers have done well to finish each season strong, even if the overall record showed more losses than wins. Michigan State loses a lot of starters for next year, the most notable of which is Kirk Cousins. I have no idea how the Spartans are going to perform without such a proven leader. I'd love to see Minnesota win this one, but it's hard to say if they will.

Iowa. I really don't know what to say about this one. It's a toss-up because it just is.

Poll

Will Minnesota get to a bowl game in 2012?

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Comments

I think 5-7 is probably right.

I can see several different paths to 6-6. But I’m probably going to set my expectations based on 5-7 rather than get too wrapped up in a bowl game (especially a meaningless one).

I’d disagree with MSU as a tossup given the strength of their D (where they return all the big pieces pretty much). But then again, the Gophers were able to take it to that D so who knows? =)

It sucks to agree that Wisconsin is probably not winnable (on paper), especially since it’s a road game. Because that’s the streak I most want to see the Gophers break. Even with it being a rivalry game. The rivalry “tossup” status (as you say) currently applies much more to Iowa.

I would argue that UNLV is much more likely to be a win given how bad UNLV is, but I made that argument for NMSU this season too (sigh). So it’s probably best to take a wait and see approach with the first game being a roady.

by GoAUpher on Dec 13, 2011 12:20 PM CST reply actions

Yeah, I agree.

UNLV is hardly a guaranteed win, especially with how this season started with New Mexico State and North Dakota. Realistically Minnesota should win, but there’s always the chance that they could be a lot worse than we all think—hence the frustration.

The bigger game, I think, is Syracuse. It will be the Gophers’ last non-conference game before the Big Ten schedule, so it’s almost twice as crucial to secure that one if the Gophers want any chance of playing post-season. But yeah, UNLV is pretty important too, given that it’s the first game and all.

by Meager Reader on Dec 13, 2011 4:39 PM CST up reply actions

I'd agree with the Orange being a bigger game.

I want to say there’s no chance that the Gophers start sluggish against an inferior opponent, but again, there is nothing to base that on yet. As Kill said early on in his time at MN, “I hear what you say, I’ll trust what you do.” And going into year 2 I’m trying to take that kind of mindset as a fan to avoid any unneeded letdowns if the team is still facing more growing pains than expected or hoped for.

Now, given that I’ll probably be in Vegas for the game I’d much prefer to see a shellacking that sends me off to the Strip in a great mood that will overcome the guaranteed losses I will sustain at the tables later in the evening.

by GoAUpher on Dec 13, 2011 5:52 PM CST up reply actions

beat Iowa (again)!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it

by plinytheelder on Dec 13, 2011 7:40 PM CST reply actions

Update/Edit

I incorrectly said that WMU will lose Alex Carder next year. Upon further review of the Broncos’ roster, I found that Carder is still a junior, and will most likely return in 2012. This means that Western Michigan is an even bigger threat.

by Meager Reader on Dec 13, 2011 9:32 PM CST reply actions

Agree that 5-7 is realistic

And is close to the upside for the season. I have a hard time seeing a sixth win.

by amiller92 on Dec 14, 2011 4:04 PM CST reply actions

Big Ten Championship or Bust...

Ok maybe not yet. 6-6, 7-5 should be a realistic goal for the team next year. With the team that we saw at the end of the year this year I believe it may have been possible this season to sneek into a bowl had we had that team all season. Considering that we did not lose too many players to graduation this year and on paper this schedule looks to have fewer guaranteed losses on it I would be upset if the team did not make a bowl game next year.

by MNSportsGuy on Dec 15, 2011 12:10 PM CST reply actions

I'm not too sure about this.

I do think that, in terms of goals, Minnesota should always strive to be competitive in the Big Ten. But setting a goal and predicting an outcome are two different things.

With the team that we saw at the end of the year this year I believe it may have been possible this season to sneak into a bowl had we had that team all season. Considering that we did not lose too many players to graduation this year and on paper this schedule looks to have fewer guaranteed losses on it I would be upset if the team did not make a bowl game next year.

A lot of people were banking on last year’s momentum from Illinois and Iowa, too. I wouldn’t put too much stock into how well the team did at the end of this year as an indicator of how well they’ll do next year. True, sometimes that’s all you have to go on, but I’d still urge cautious optimism.

I still say that 5-7 is what realistic fans should expect. 8-4 (or bowl game) is the best that they can hope for. But, either way, it’s going to come down to how Minnesota does in its non-conference schedule.

by Meager Reader on Dec 15, 2011 7:31 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly.

A lot of people were banking on last year’s momentum from Illinois and Iowa, too.

Last year taught me a lot about setting my expectations.

When it comes to losing players, we really don’t know how things will shake out yet. We lose our best WR, a position we don’t have a lot of depth at. Certainly there are some bright positives in the WR spot, but in looking at whether the young guys (or Moulton) can step up and replace McKnight we also have to consider that in many ways we’re talking about “potential” rather than basing things off of a track record of performance. The same holds true for the defensive secondary.

by GoAUpher on Dec 16, 2011 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed.

P.S. Where is jimipig? Doesn’t he have any thoughts on this?

by Meager Reader on Dec 18, 2011 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

There's no way we'll lose to New Hampshire

I mean, I’d like to believe that, but as soon as I said it so many memories came crashing down on me…

"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa

by mnbrewer on Dec 16, 2011 4:29 AM CST reply actions

I think it would be incredibly frustrating

to lose to New Hampshire, but unfortunately for Minnesota, it can never be ruled out as a possibility. My realistic side still believes that the Gophers’ eventual run of 5-7 starts with good non-conference play, New Hampshire being one of those wins. It will be at least some form of progress, which at this point is all that I expect.

Of course, if MN loses, the turnaround may take a while to show up…

by Meager Reader on Dec 18, 2011 5:33 PM CST up reply actions

At some point the turnaround has to happen

Kill needs to send a message to his team and us as fans, that losing to a minor conference team, regardless of venue/talent, is unacceptable. For the Gophers to lose to NDSU and New Mexico this season and then follow up any positivity of beating Iowa/Illinois with losing to either UNLV or New Hampshire cannot happen. This program cannot turn around until we at least beat the teams we are supposed to beat.

I would say that Joe Public will not understand the nuance of Western Michigan being a good team and therefore the Gophers losing to Syracuse would be better PR-wise than losing to the Broncos. But I can live with them losing to them knowing their talent level, as long as they do not lose to UNLV or New Hampshire.

5-7 to me is the most likely scenario. 4-8 is borderline acceptable if the losses become closer (see Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue, etc). 3-9 cannot be considered acceptable, even in year 2. 6 wins, while possible, at this point seems unlikely to me.