Minnesota on the Road Again Looking For First Big Ten Win at Michigan - OPEN THREAD
by GopherNation on Jan 1, 2012 11:00 AM CST
in Gopher Basketball
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PrintMinnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines, Jan 1, 2012 3:00 PM CST
HAPPY NEW YEAR. 2011 is finally over for Gopher basketball and maybe 2012 will be a kinder year to the program. We start the year out with a trip to Michigan where our season was effectively ended last year with the Al Nolen injury. So far this season I'm seeing a pattern to the Gopher's. We win six games, lose one. Then we win six games and lose one. Time to start that next six game win streak this afternoon in Ann Arbor.
Game Time: 3:00
TV: BTN
| Pos | Minnesota | Pnt/Gm | Pnt/Gm | Michigan |
Pos | |
| PG | Maverick Ahanmisi |
4.6 | 13.0 | Trey Burke |
G | |
| G | Julian Welch | 10.3 | 15.4 | Tim Hardaway Jr | G | |
| F | Austin Hollins | 8.6 | 9.4 | Zack Novak |
F | |
| F | Rodney Williams | 9.6 | 11.7 | Evan Smotrycz | F | |
| C | Ralph Sampson III | 9.4 | 7.8 | Jordan Morgan | F | |
| Bench | Andre Hollins | 6.3 | 6.9 | Stu Douglass | Bench | |
| Bench |
Chip Armelin | 5.9 | 2.2 | Matt Vogrich |
Bench | |
| Bench |
Eliott Eliason |
2.8 | 1.1 | Blake McLimans |
Bench |
The Wolverines thought to be suffering a significant setback in the offseason when their best player, Darius Morris, decided to enter the NBA Draft. But things haven't been too bad because of the emergence of freshman point guard Trey Burke. The three-star PG out of Columbus has twice won conference freshman of the week honors and is 2nd on the team in scoring.
The matchup I like is Austin Hollins on Zach Novak (I hope that is the matchup). Hollins is the one guy I trust to not get lost on defense and will limit the amount of wide open looks Novak will get. I expect Michigan will run some sets for Novak and Hollins may not get the help he needs, but for the most part I think this is an opportunity to keep his three-point shooting contained.
The matchup I do not like is Rodney guarding Evan Smotrycz. The 6-9 sophomore is shooting nearly 58% from behind the line and with 38 attempts (would be good enough for 2nd on Gophers as far as attempts go). I fear that Rodney will get lost defensively or sink too low hoping to get a blocked shot while Smotrycz will leak out to the line and be wide open for three after three.
| KenPom Efficiency Stats | Minnesota (46) |
Michigan (49) |
| Record | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Pnt / Poss | 1.090 | 1.106 (29) |
| Def Pnt / Poss | 0.945 | 0.959 |
| Off eFG% | 52.3% |
58.2% (3) |
| Def eFG% | 47.4% | 47.2% |
| Off Reb % | 37.9% | 30.4% |
| Def Reb % | 68.0% | 72.3% |
| TO % | 22.0% | 19.3% |
The number that jumps out is Michigan's eFG%, where they rank 3rd nationally. That is such a high number because they shoot a lot of threes and they make a lot of threes. 36.7% of their total points scored come from behind the arc. And because people respect their threes so much, they then take advantage of that by getting some easy 2s. They currently lead the nation in 2 pnt FG%.
I see two keys to today's game.
1 - Stop the Three - The problem here is that we do not defend the three very well, haven't for a few years. If we can get out and defend the three, bringing their percentage down and making them work for their points then I think we win this game. Austin needs to lock down Novak. Rodney needs to pay attention to Smotrycz.
2 - Dominate the Paint - For us to win the game offensively we need to pound the ball inside. Sampson, Eliason and Rodney should be able to score inside. Michigan has a thin bench and a short roster. Ralph needs to use his three or four inch advantage over Jordan Morgan and dominate the paint. And after a game where Rodney was ineffective against a big/strong Illini frontcourt, I think this is an opportunity for him to get the ball inside and score often. Smotrycz is a shooting forward, Rodney needs to get physical with him in the paint and the guards need to get him the ball around the rim. This can be done.
After seeing how we played at Illinois, I have more confidence that we can win this game. But Michigan cannot get comfortable shooting threes or we might get buried. We will lose a game where we trade threes for twos.
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Rodney's showing good hustle early
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
I didn’t watch the Illini game. They must have looked better than this because this is pretty ugly all around.
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by PJS on Jan 1, 2012 3:42 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Yes and no...
…Illini played a horrible game. Throwing the ball out of bounds, unforced turnovers, etc. Not to say we didn’t play okay…but our solid play wasn’t the driver of that Illini game.
Iowa over Wisky??? WTF! That was a nice New Year’s gift…but then again, it made me question one of my pre-season “sure wins”…that being Iowa. Now I can’t point to a game I am confident we will win. That makes for a long winter…
Wonder If Minnesota "Made" Them Play Poorly
Or did Illinois just randomly decide to play lousy.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 1, 2012 8:56 PM CST up reply actions
I understand your point...
…sure, I’ll throw the Gophers a small bone…but don’t expect Illinois to play us again in a game that close. The Tribune article the following day got it right…it was a fluke that they played that bad against such a poor team, but they got the win so they won’t dwell on it.
Guys throwing the ball out of bounds on misread cuts….missing shots they normally make….that’s not the other team beating you, that’s you beating yourself. I saw a lot of that at Illinois. BUT…I also saw us hit some big shots, so I’m not totally crapping on the Gophers. Just saying, we caught Illinois on a bad night for them (and by Illinois standards, they are an average team too and will lose more than their share of Big 10 games this season).
So to your point, an optimist says we made them play poorly by playing tough defense and applying high intensity pressure. the pessimist says they crapped the bed most of the game, but were able to turn it on and win running away from us (reverting back to their mean, while we also reverted back to our mean) in 2OT.
At the end of the day, a lesser team can’t afford to miss a fucking layup to win the game, or a free throw to seal the game. We did, we lost. I’m more upset we missed the few layups and the free throw and missed stealing a game in Big 10 play. The Michigan game was different…we were chasing, chasing, chasing…didn’t capitalize on the worst game of Hardaway’s career…made 2 jumpers? But again, we were competitive, so that was a good sign. But the Illinois game…we had to WORK to lose that game. That is typical Minnesota athletics…snatching defeat from the jaws of victory….
I didn't see the Illinois game
But throwing the ball out of bounds on misread cuts and missing shots you normally make can very much be the other team beating you with defensive pressure.
And because Michigan absolutely played more poorly and more sloppily than expected, there might be reason to suspect that the what we were doing was a factor in that direction in both games.
Much better on-ball defense
The man-on-man is working.
I was at that Iowa game
And it had little to do with them. Wisconsin didn’t rebound, they let Iowa get easy scores, and they shot 11% from behind the arc. We’ll be fine with Iowa.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
A key to the game you missed...
…just make your fucking layups.
I’m having difficulty watching Tubby-ball anymore. The rotations. The offense. The bad rotation on defense.
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by PJS on Jan 1, 2012 3:52 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Completely agree. And teams like Indiana, Michigan, and Iowa, with new young coaches, will keep getting better.
The worst part is that we can’t even say “Wait till next year.” As of this moment, we have only 2 very average recruits coming in. Look at what some of the other Big 10 schools (Iowa, Michigan, etc.) will be getting and the outlook is bleak…….
Then Don't Watch
Big 10 teams play like that.
Find another conference?
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 1, 2012 8:55 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah I agree with this
Find me a Big Ten coach that doesn’t do that.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
RSIII
They can hang a shower curtain up under the basket and it would outrebound and outscore him. Now he is f’ing up our other players by getting in their way on rebounds. The old Ralphy boy is back, but who thought he would play like he did in the Illini game even once more this year?
Has the ball on the block down by one
and RSIII has NO BALLS to take it to the baseline….he had space and plays like he is in a shell…Jesus, what the fuck is wrong with this kids game?
No gopher ever makes a post move to the baseline
Tubby must have a rule against it or something.
Tubby Time
So, 2 very winnable games on the road and we lose them both. Illinois plays just plain ugly, and Michigan’s shooting stinks, but they get so many 2nd and 3rd chances, it doesn’t matter. More troubling, the 5 year pattern continues; if a game is close, the Gophers will lose for sure, generally the result of being outcoached.
Tell me, after a timeout, has any play drawn up by our bench ever worked? Just asking……
Never
Despite that, he has 479 career W in 20+ seasons of Div I coaching.
Just lucky, I guess.
by FortyYearCatFan on Jan 1, 2012 8:54 PM CST up reply actions
They were only winnable
Because we played well enough to stay in them. A win on the road at either Illinois or Michigan is still a big upset. And ask Lawrence Westbrook about winning close games in the last 5 years…
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
To be as oversized as we were against Michigan and get out-rebounded is just plain piss poor.
So we’re worried about their 3-point shooting and we play ’em face up out deep and no one is available for rebounds because RSIII sucks.
We're watching as the Ralph turns
And he seems dedicated to being inconsistent.
Gophers Miss Mbakwe On The Boards And Post Defense
Injuries happen in sports. Take away the best player from most teams and it’s tough to adjust.
Gophers need 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday to get NCAA bid.
Yes we do...
…but I also think we mentally sat around and waited for Mbakwe to take the game over (he’s not that kind of player)…so our “team chemistry” was a mess with him.
Somehow, I feel we got better when he got hurt. Crazy to say…but in watching the team play, that’s my read. Not significantly better, but better and more competitive.
I don't know if we got better as a team
But Rodney has been better being able to play inside and Welch has gotten better as a go-to guy (although that might just be him being healthier).
We have certainly been better than I expected with out him.
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