Gopher Basketball and the NCAA Tournament, Can The Gophers Make The Dance?
by GopherNation on Jan 24, 2012 10:31 AM CST
in Gopher Basketball
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PrintWelcome to the season of overreaction that is Gopher Basketball 2011-12, and yes I fully recognize that I am less a part of the solution and more part of the problem. But I'm going to go forward with this post anyway.
With the three-game win streak the Gophers have put themselves back into the conversation for the NCAA Tournament. Believe it or not folks but this team can start worrying about their resume. We are not in position to worry about seeding, it is just a matter of getting in right now. But according to Lunardi, we are in as an 11 seed. According to the Bracket Matrix, we are in as a 12 seed (before the NU win). And according to StatJunkie, we were in last week (before the NU win). So let's take a look at our actual resume, the upcoming schedule (both short-term and long-term) and then what is it going to actually take to get in.
The Resume (RPI and SOS info from CBSSports.com)
RPI: 47
Strength of Schedule: 49
Record vs. top 100: 5-4
Big Wins: @Indiana (RPI-20), Northwestern (RPI-37)
Bad Losses: Iowa (RPI-113)
The overall resume isn't all that impressive, but our RPI and our SOS is very solid. The actual resume is still being built out with a ton of opportunities to build it up and mail it in with a nice cover letter to the NCAA Selection Committee or send it to plan B in New York hoping the NIT would take us this year. There are still so many games to be played that the resume as it stands right now isn't a huge deal. The upcoming schedule is what will determine our fate.
Upcoming Schedule
Opportunities for big wins are on the horizon. The Gophers have yet to play Wisconsin (x2), Michigan State (x2) and Ohio State (x1). And then Indiana has a chance for redemption when they travel to The Barn at the end of February. That is six of our 11 remaining games against teams currently ranked. Fortunately we also have four games against teams currently below us in the standings. There are four winable games in Nebraska (x2), at Iowa and at Northwestern. Unfortunately three of those four are on the road. Then the one other remaining game is Illinois at home.
That is not an easy schedule to navigate. Six games against the best of the Big Ten and then mostly road games against the lower third of the conference which has proven to be no picnic. The good news is that our strength of schedule is going to continue to rise.
The Road to the NCAA Tournament
So if you make the simple assumption that we beat the teams below us, lose to the ranked teams above us that and lets assume a win over Illinois at home; that gives us a Big Ten record of 8-10 with 20 wins overall. I believe that with a strong Big Ten RPI, good Gopher RPI / SOS and a Big Ten Tournament win; that might be enough to get into the NCAA Tournament. I think that many will disagree with me and they may be correct, but it is possible. Getting that 9th Big Ten win really is the key and then I think we are not even on the bubble.
Really there are so many combination of games that we need to win or can't lose or would really help or whatever. Wins over teams above us would be huge and losses to teams below would hurt. For formula is that you need an extra big win for every "bad loss" and ultimately I think the magic number, prior to the Big Ten Tournament, is six. Get to 9-9 in the Big Ten and I think we are safely in. 8-10 might be enough but we'd have work to do in Indianapolis and likely some help from bubble teams losing. The game that keeps me up at night (not really, but you get the point) is that loss at Illinois. When you have a chance to ice a game from the free throw line, you have to do that. If we were 4-3 with three road wins instead of 3-4, I'd be feeling pretty confident that we'd get to nine wins.
Is the NCAA Tournament a possibility? Absolutely, and I'm gaining confidence. Assuming the Gophers we have seen over the last three games are the ones that we see the rest of the season then I think there is not reason we cannot be competitive in every game we play and we'll win plenty. Wisconsin is heating up, but they have looked vulnerable this season (and we tend to matchup well with them anyway). And we get two extra days to prepare for Ohio State, so we've got that going for us. And
We simply cannot afford let downs like the home loss to Iowa. And then stealing a game or two along the way would be really nice. But this team is capable as long as they continue to defend and Joe Coleman keeps leading what needs to be a balanced offense.
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Let's keep the focus short
One game at a time, gents. I’m actually looking forward to tomorrow’s road game at Michigan State because a win would be huge, but a loss doesn’t really hurt us and would be entirely expected. Kind of the proverbial “nothing to lose” game, which worked out pretty well for us last time (@ Indiana). Getting, just slightly, into the X’s and O’s, the rebounding problems that plagued the Gophers against Iowa have been hidden somewhat due to matchups against small frontcourts the last two games, but I’m worried we get waxed on the boards against MSU, which would certainly lead to a loss. We’ll see.
Journalism. Enhanced.
I agree that rebounding could be an issue against MSU
I think for that reason alone we will see more Eliason than we have in the previous 4 games.
I agree completely with MDguy's
“keep the focus short.” Let’s talk about winning a B10 championship. When mathematically eliminated, then OK, talk tourneys. The king of this early “Dance” talk was Myron over at the Strib. It was ridiculous how early he would start talking about it.
why?
the team should be focused on 1 game at a time, but it never hurts anything to talk about where we are going.
and how is talking about a big ten championship not getting ahead of ourselves? Seems like NCAA Tournament is a much more attainable goal.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
by GopherNation on Jan 24, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
Um...didn't anyone tell you?
You hold the team’s future in your hands GN. =)
Seriously though, I agree. Talking as fans is harmless and fun. I can see the point in not getting our expectations too high, but simple analysis about what it would take isn’t the same thing.
I laughed at that too....
…winning a Big 10 championship is a far loftier goal than NCAA.
When I start to think we are getting way ahead of ourselves because we only won these last 3 games, I think think to how winnable Michigan and especially Illinois were. Those two games are killing me…
It is a huge long shot to make the tourney. We play the best over the next few weeks and we could very easily lose 5 or 6 games and then we’ll be calling the NIT a long-shot. I think that scenario is morel ikely than us still talking about the NCAA a week from today. But I’ll sit back and hopefully continue to be pleasantly surprised.
2-1 in the next seven days is realistic
but so is 1-2.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
by GopherNation on Jan 24, 2012 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
Illinois
The Illinois game on Saturday is huge. You are right, we can afford to lose this game against MSU, and obviously a win helps a lot more than a loss hurts with this one.
But starting with Illinois, we have a run of games (Ill, @Iowa, @Neb, Wis) where we have to win at least 3 of 4, otherwise it is going to be an uphill climb.
I agree with every word
And had been thinking along the same lines. 8-10 in the regular season puts us on the bubble, with each B1G tournament win moving us up the bubble.
9-9 probably gets us in on it’s own, with the tournament wins moving up the seed.
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