FanPost

Minnesota Gophers Bowl Picture - Post Week 12

Hannah Foslien

GoAUpher: Bumping because:

1) this is a great example of when to write a FanShot

2) it's a nice breakdown

3) now we don't have to write a bowls piece this week ;o)

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"I think we can I think we can"

Expanding what was going to be a long reply in a thread, here is what the Big Ten bowl picture looks like as of today.

What Minnesota needs:
1. Win out (duh). This would put Minnesota in the B10 championship game, likely vs. OSU again, and pretty much assure at least the Citrus Bowl. (Outback if #2 fails to happen)
2. OSU and MSU to win out. (sans Minny upsetting them in B10 Champ). Goal here is to get them both into playoff or second tier national game, and out of the dedicated Big Ten bowl lineup. Failure to do so knocks everyone else in the conference down a slot.
3. Maryland to lose at least once, preferably twice. They are probably the biggest threat to wedge between us and Nebraska and Wisconsin, as they have the much easier remaining schedule (@ Michigan, Rutgers), and we hold the (51 Unanswered!) tiebreaker win vs. Iowa. So yes, root for Michigan to gain bowl eligibility next week.
4. Big Ten conference to help us ward off name brand bias.

On The Bias:

Minny has been picked over many times in the past for the bigger brand schools, even if they were worse than Minny. It has been indicated that the Big Ten will play a more active part in bowl selections starting this year, as contracts were revamped for pretty much all the bowls.

We do know that they will work to avoid repeat appearances by schools, and will look longer than back-to-back seasons. As the Car Care Bowl in Houston is no longer part of the lineup, nor the Insight Bowl from '08 & '09, the Gophers have no such complication in where they will land.

What we don't know is if they will enforce more rigid selection based on records and/or "power rankings". We definitely should be rooting for Delany to do this, as much as it may pain us to root for him. If they don't wield this power to the fullest... well I guess we have another reason to hate Delany.

Big Ten bowl order 2014/15:
Playoffs (Rose or Sugar)
Second Tier national games (Cotton, Fiesta or Peach)
Citrus - Orlando
Outback - Tampa
Holiday - San Diego
Gator - Jacksonville
San Francisco - Santa Clara
Pinstripe - New York
Quick Lane - Detroit
Heart of Dallas - Dallas

Rose Bowl is part of the playoff this year, which also means per some lengthy contract language that the Orange Bowl will not land a B10 team, leaving the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach bowls as the only available B10 landing spots for that tier.

Where does everybody stand?
If we can slot OSU/MSU in the national games, that leaves:
- Minnesota/Wisconsin/Nebraska fighting for Citrus, Outback and Holiday quite likely.
- Iowa/Maryland/Penn St./Rutgers to fight for Gator thru Quick Lane
- Michigan/Northwestern/Illinois fighting for the last spot to Dallas, then any other open bowl slot. NW and Ill play each other, so only one of the two can possibly go. Of course all three can realistically fail to get 6 wins, in which case the Big Ten might not fill its bowl commitments. (that also depends on the OSU/MSU scenario)

Teams' Overall Record & Remaining Games:

- Ohio St (9-1): vs. Indiana, vs. Michigan

- Mich St (8-2): vs. Rutgers, @ Penn St.

- Wisconsin(8-2): @ Iowa, vs. Minnesota

- Nebraska (8-2): vs. Minnesota, @ Iowa

- Minnesota (7-3): @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

- Iowa (7-3): vs. Wisconsin, vs. Nebraska

- Maryland (6-4): @ Michigan, vs. Rutgers

- Penn St. (6-4): @ Illinois, vs. MSU

- Rutgers (6-4): @ MSU, @ Maryland

- Michigan (5-5): vs. Maryland, @ OSU

- Northwestern (4-5): @ Purdue, vs. Illinois

- Illinois (4-6): vs. Penn St., @ NW

- Purdue (3-7) and Indiana (3-7) will be home for the holidays

So where will Minnesota land??

You tell me. Lots of possible outcomes are still on the table. Heck, we could win the B10 Championship game and go to a national bowl, but at this point we all know that is a pretty remote chance.

What are next week's scenarios?

A win @ Nebraska, AND/OR a Maryland loss vs. Michigan and a Iowa loss to Wisconsin likely means Minnesota goes no lower than the Gator or Holiday Bowl. (Gator if OSU or MSU lose a game, Holiday if they win out.)

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