FanPost

Minnesota Basketball: Main Reasons for the Gophers 0-5 Conference Start

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

GoAUpher: Bumping because this is excellent. Big hat tip to mowe0018!

College basketball is a strange thing. The Gophers find themselves stuck in part of the absurdity of it all, reeling off 5 straight losses to start conference play, after a non-conference slate that revealed little to nothing about the team. They lost to the two best teams they played, won one road game against a ACC bottom-dweller, and blasted a bunch of low-level schools with names like the Paladins and the Catamounts. When the rubber hit the road on New Year's Eve, the season which originally had intriguing possibilities slowing began to morph into a nightmare. Blown double-digit leads, double-digit comebacks that fell short at home, desperation, and agony have all become an expected occurrence. I'll be honest, at halftime of the Iowa game I thought to myself, "Man, I bet we comeback and somehow lose this game in an agonizing way." Boy did we ever.

How did it come to this? Much has been made as to reasons why the season has so quickly gone from bubble team to "will we be declining a CBI invite?" But before I get into reasons why this tragedy has occurred, let's look at indisputable facts.

Facts

1. The 2013-2014 Golden Gophers won the 2014 NIT.

2. The 2014-2015 Golden Gopher return 4 starters from that squad.

3. The Gophers are playing at a much higher tempo this season as opposed to last season (29th per KenPom as opposed to 257th last year).

4. The Gophers have lost two players believed to be bench contributors before the conference season started, leaving them with essentially two "empty" scholarships.

5. The Gophers have lost 4 of 5 conference games by two possessions or less. And two games in the last two possessions of the game.

Keep these facts in mind as I give some of the reasons I believe the conference season has started so poorly.

Reasons

1. DeAndre Mathieu is playing his role on this team ineffectively.

Let me preface the following by saying that I like Mathieu. He's definitely capable of playing at this level. We saw as much last year. However, for some reason, he has folded like a a bad poker hand in conference play this season. According to College Basketball Reference, he currently has a horrific 34.6% turnover percentage in conference play. For every 100 plays, DeAndre would turn the ball over almost 35 times. This is clearly a huge problem. It would be more palatable if he was dishing out assists like ice cream on a July afternoon but his assist to turnover ratio in conference play is equally terrible, coming in at .65. He only has 13 assists in 5 games. This is the guy responsible for making the up-tempo style of play Pitino prefers tick and he is playing atrociously. I'm not trying to pile on the guy because we need him to be good to succeed, I'm just trying to paint a picture of how bad it's been. For reference, his turnover percentage in conference last season was 22.5% and his assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.32. He can play better than he currently has against higher competition. To say he isn't talented enough is a cop out and is short-changing the kid.

2. Andre Hollins is also playing his role on this team ineffectively.

I love Andre. One of my favorite Gophers of the last 8 years. The Memphis game he had in the Bahamas was a thing of beauty. He's a scorer with a sweet jumper and a great free throw shooter. But he has failed at being the shooter we need him to be during this 0-5 stretch. All you need to know about Andre's struggles is this: he is shooting 20.7% from the field in conference play. This includes 18.2% from inside the arc. Please read that again, because it's not a typo. 18.2% from 2-point range!!!!!!!!! That's insane. We all know Andre is better than that. Even with the horrific start to this conference season, he is still a career 36.8% shooter in conference play. So even though that stat isn't impressive, it's 16 percentage points higher than he is currently shooting. He has to step it up shooting-wise, and while I'm trying to stick to measurable critiques of the team, I wouldn't mind seeing Andre get into some guys' faces on defense when they mess up. This guy is a senior. This is his last hurrah as a Gopher. I want to see him leading the team on the court, even when he isn't hitting from the outside. It's one thing to keep the team in line when you are hitting threes, it's another thing to do so when you're having an off night. He needs to step up.

3. Free throw failures have cost us close games.

It's one thing to be a bad free throw shooting team. It's another thing to be a bad free throw shooting team when you're playing in tight games consistently. Currently ranked 13th in conference play, game by game percentages look respectable at 70, 52.4 (blowout loss to Maryland), 73.3, 55 (Michigan), and 75. But when you consider that the front end of two one-and-one's in the Iowa game, coupled with the atrocious percentage against Michigan, free throws have been directly related to success in at least 2 of the games. Carlos Morris and Hollins have shown to be reliable free throw shooters but they aren't getting to the line enough to compensate for Mo Walker's poor percentage. Nate Mason is also a culprit. While a freshman, every player proclaimed a "shooter" should be able to convert around 70%. In conference play, Mason is at 53.3%. Free throw woes have contributed heavily to the 0-5 start.

4. Richard Pitino is a young coach and it is showing.

Back door cuts against Ohio State happened too easily. Make an adjustment? Nope. Allow a guy to play off-the-cuff while pocketing a time out in overtime? Sure. Did we get a good look? Nope. Draw up a play against Iowa for the last 3 seconds? Yep. Did we even get a shot off? Nope. Use up all your time outs against Michigan before the 5 minute mark? Sure, why not?

I'm not by any means saying we should fire Pitino or that he is the sources of all our problem (I named him last for a reason). I think players play and coaches coach. The problem is that with so many close games, the small portion of a basketball game the coach can have a say in the outcome of, Pitino has seemed to fall short. He's got the team to continue to fight, including coming back from 12 down against Ohio State and 17 down against Iowa, so that's a positive. But there has been too many times where I have questioned the judgement of the coach and had a legitimate beef. Whether it be because of inexperience or because he has had a few mental lapses, some of the reason we are currently at 0-5 is because Pitino hasn't been optimal in all situations. If he continues to mature as a coach, we may see better results going forward. But you can critique the coach without calling for his head. He bears part of the blame for the 0-5.

Conclusions

Let me connect to some of the facts from above in my conclusions. I think it's asinine to say that this team doesn't have enough talent to compete night-in and night-out in the Big Ten. For one, this is team with a majority of talent back from a NIT Championship and 25 wins. I agree that the bench is very short after losing McNeil and Martin but the talent to be mildly successful is most definitely there. Saying otherwise is just a cop out for a disappointing start to the conference season. For another, the Big Ten is seriously weak this year. Even Wisconsin, the undisputed favorite in the league, has been weakened in recent days due to the injury to their starting point guard Traevon Jackson. Besides the Badgers, is there really any team that seems insurmountable? Sure, Maryland looks like a good club, but we won't be playing them again this season. Ohio State is playing defense like they always do, but we took them to the wire. I could go all the way down the line and explain why each team isn't that much better (or worse for that matter) than the Gophers but that would be a waste of words and time.

My point is this: there are wins left on the schedule. Maybe all it will take to get the Dre's out of their funk is the feeling of a win. Maybe Pitino will look back at the games we've lost and learn how to manage the last few minutes of a game a little better the next time. Maybe Nate Mason continues to establish himself as a viable offensive option and brings his free throw percentage up while simultaneously getting to the line more often.

Iowa had 14 turnovers to our 9 this past Tuesday. They only out rebounded us by 3. We made two more field goals and one more three-pointer than they did. Eventually, games with these stat lines will fall our way. You can say you don't believe in "luck" all you want but there's a reason KenPom and his ratings are respected across college basketball and there's a reason we currently rank 343rd out of 351 teams in "luck rating."

I am of the belief that things will start turning back the Gophers' way soon. I believe they won't be truly outmatched in a game again until February 21st in Madison. The opportunity is there to get some wins, whether you've given up on the season or not. Might as well watch, right?

Thoughts?

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