Welcome to the first open thread of the 2010 season.  As most of you know this is the forum to vent, gloat, rant, rave and celebrate Gopher football.  We start on the road vs. the Sun Belt favorites minus their offensive weapon, Dwight Dasher.

Let's get it on.

You don't have to wait for the game to start, give us your predictions for the game and share you anticipation with the rest of us.

I think for much of the season JG will do the previews but he is off the grid right now so I get to handle the week 1 preview.  First a few details. 

For those of you new to TDG, be sure to come back here during game time for the OPEN THREAD.  It is a live comment extravaganza with other Gopher fans as we watch the game.

Time: 6:30 p.m. (CT)
Location: Mufreesboro, Tenn.
Stadium: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Surface: Sportexe Synthetic Turf
Capacity: 30,788
TV:  ESPNU (Anish Shroff - play by play and Jay Walker - Analyst)
Radio:  Gophers Radio Network - WCCO 830 AM
Opponent Radio: MTSU Radio Network

OK, so now that we have the details out of the way let's take a look at the matchup.  It feels like it was a long time ago that the Gophers lost an ugly game to Iowa State and they now begin the journey to make their third straight bowl game. MTSU finished 2009 with a 10-3 record winning their New Orleans Bowl matchup with Souther Miss.  They were an offensive power averaging 32.0 ppg and 421.7 yards per game.  In the program's history the Gophers are 11-1 against Sun Belt teams but they have never played MTSU. 

Minnesota on Offense

The Blue Raiders, as mentioned, were 10-3 last year with a potent offense.  But it should be noted that their defense also contributed 19 interceptions and 38 sacks.  This big play defense did lose two of their lineman one who was the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year, they lost two linebackers and they lost two all-conference DBs.  Not that we should be holding the loss of defensive starters against an opponent, but those are some heavy losses.  On the bright side they return safety, Jeremy Kellam who is potentially the next Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year and they return DE Jarami Lattimore who had six sacks last year as a sophomore.  Overall their defense is similar to ours in that they are replacing both starting corners and are replacing some experienced linebackers with athleticism. 

It has been well established that the Gopher offense is bigger than the Blue Raider defense.  Our offensive line is very big and the rumor is we are actually going to try and run the ball with some authority.  This would be the team to do that against.  We have a distinct size advantage and if we choose to do so we should be able to pound the rock all day long.  The question will be if that's enough.  If the MTSU offense is able to move the ball with relative ease against the Gopher defense that is starting with 11 new starters, will we be able to afford to move the ball on the ground all day long?

If we are able to get out to an early lead I think you'll see a lot of yards racked up on the ground.  If this gets into a shootout then we'll get an early look at the 2010 version of Adam Weber.

KEY MATCHUP - Offensive line vs. MTSU defensive line

I like this matchup a lot. Our OL was much maligned last year and this will be an opportunity to finally establish a power run game.  In pass protection it will be interesting to see how Jeff Wills will handle himself against a speed rusher.  Remember this MTSU defensive line racked up nearly 40 sacks last year.  They are fast, they blitz a lot and they get to the QB.

Minnesota on Defense

The MTSU offense all about speed, points, yards and points.  But that was 2009 and this is 2010.  They lost a couple wide receivers and one offensive lineman but those aren't the losses that should concern Blue Raider fans.  Quarterback Dwight Dasher was expected to return but we all know that his gambling problems are preventing him from playing in week 1.  He's a huge loss, but don't underestimate the loss of their offensive coordinator, Tony Franklin. 

Franklin is an offensive guru who maybe didn't invent the spread offense but he has perfected running it.  He had a short stint at Auburn that failed miserably but much of that was due to the staff not giving him full control.  Anyway, Franklin should be given a lot of credit for the offensive success they had in 2009 but he has moved on.  I believe his loss is as great as the loss of Dasher.  The architect of the offense and the man responsible for running it are both gone.  They do return four starters along the offensive line and they'll be getting back tailback Phillip Tanner.  This offense is talented but it will be different this year and it will be interesting to watch them tonight.

But not as interesting as watching our new defense.  We've talked about the added athleticism for months and we'll finally get to see what our defense with 11 new starters will look like.  I've said it before but although we have 11 new starters this isn't a brand new defense.  Along the line Jewhan Edwards and Brandon Kirksey played nearly as many snaps as the starters a year ago and they could actually outperform Brown and Small.  D.L. Wilhite played every game last year as a DE.  Keanon Cooper and Gary Tinsley saw a lot of action as LBs last year.  Michael Carter and Ryan Collado have plenty of experience in the secondary.  So this defense isn't all redshirt freshmen getting their first taste of D1 football.

Now I would feel better if our senior safeties were able to play tonight but they'll be playing eventually.  And we do have some guys who actually are getting their first taste of playing a lot of downs.  Ra'Shede Hageman, Matt Garin, Kendal Gregory-McGhee, Christyn Lewis, James Manuel and even Mike Rallis are going to be playing the bulk of the snaps for the first time in their careers.  I'm very interested to see how this defense plays as a unit and how disciplined they are against this spread offense.

KEY MATCHUP - Gopher secondary vs. Blue Raider pass attack

We have two brand new starters at safety.  We have a true freshman and a DII transfer backing up at corner.  This is a diverse passing attack that fortunately will have a backup QB under center.  If our secondary can keep from giving up really big plays, especially plays for touchdowns then I don't just like our chances but I think we win this one going away.  With their brand new quarterback, MTSU may try to utilize their experienced OL and talented tailback and run the ball more than expected but I'm confident in our front seven containing the run.  We just have to show we can defend the pass.

The Final?

Long ago I used to really dive into individual matchups and stats and try to really predict how the game was going to play out.  But football is just far too difficult to predict who will dictate the game, control the ball and come out on top.  Turnovers are often so random and if a game were played 3 weeks in a row the tempo and outcome could be completely different.  Ultimately I think we win this game.  I felt good before Dasher went down and I feel much better now that he isn't playing. 

For my prediction I think we run the ball and run the ball and run the ball in the 1st half.  If we get ahead early I think we'll control the clock and rush our way to a W.  If MTSU gets a few big plays early and jumps to a lead then I'm far less confident.  I don't mean to underestimate the Blue Raiders, they are a talented team.  But I'm also confident that the Gophers are better than advertised and we will be 1-0 at this time tomorrow.

You may recall last year's predictions on the Gopher schedule.  Well it is time for the 2010 consensus and we've included the new guys.  Game-by-game here are our thoughts, wisdom and predictions...

The Schedule

  Thurs, Sept 2nd

GN - I understand that the national, main stream media is down on the Gophers. And apparently Vegas is down on the Gophers too as the Blue Raiders are 4 point favorites!

This is where the rubber will meet the road with the Gophers desire to dominate the line of scrimmage and this year truly pound the rock.   Middle Tennessee State was 10-3 last year and they return a lot of starters (especially on offense), but they are also a Sun Belt team and they should not be able to match the Gopher's size and strength (I hope).  Gophers win by 10.

BB - The season opener with Middle Tennessee State could be the most important game of the season.  Last year the Blue Raiders had a 10-3 record, but didn't face very many quality opponents.  Here's what I wrote about this matchup prior to the Dwight Dasher suspension:

From footage I've seen and from what I've read, Middle Tennessee State has a talented quarterback in Dwight Dasher who can make plays with both his arm and his legs.  Stop Dwight Dasher, and the Gophers will probably stop the Blue Raiders.

The Gophers bring into their first contest a newly modified offensive scheme, an offensive squad that must adapt to the loss of Eric Decker, and several new starters on defense.  I predict that this game will be the litmus test for the entire season.  Win big, and the Gophers should have a 7-5 or better season.  Win or lose a close game, expect a record between 4-6 and 6-6.  Lose big, and things could get very ugly as the year progresses. 

If Horton's offense significantly outperforms last season's squad, and the new defensive starters step in and continue last season's strong defensive play, then Minnesota could surprise people this year.  Both of those factors are unknowns until the team takes the field.

I predict some strong drives with at least three major mistakes caused by a combination of inexperience with the new offensive scheme and youth on the defense.  Yet, Minnesota should definitely pull this one out with Dasher suspended.  Minnesota 34 - MTSU 17.  Gophers' record 1-0.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Clearly I like the Gophers chances in this one much better now that MTSU QB Dwight Dasher is out. I will maintain that even with Dasher, the Gophers should not lose to the Blue Raiders and should never lose to a Sun Belt school. It just shouldn't happen, and I'm predicting this time around it won't. Minnesota 27 - MTSU 10.

JD - Wait, the national media is down on the Gophers?  Dasher isn't going to be playing for MTSU?  The MTSU mascot is the Red Raiders?  Where have I been?  Gophers win 31 - 20.

   Sat, Sept 11th

GN - The 2010 home opener is against a good USD team but once again, this is an FCS team and if the Gophers want to dispel the notion that they are a bottom of the Big Ten team, they have to win this one.  The projected 4th place team in the Great West Conference should not be able to beat any  Big Ten team on the road.  If the Gophers don't adequately prepare for the Coyotes then things could get dicey but this will be a 17 point win.

BB - South Dakota will undoubtedly be prepared for this game, as a win against a Big Ten team would probably be the highlight of their season.  I'm interested to see how the Coyotes' starting safety, Gopher transfer Shane Potter, fares against the Gopher passing attack. 

If the Gophers lose this game, the season would pretty much be a wash.  It won't happen.  Minnesota 35 - South Dakota 17.  Gophers' record 2-0.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Should be a piece of cake, as the Gophs have never had trouble with 1-AA schools from the Dakotas...oh that's right, they have nothing but trouble with 1-AA schools from the Dakotas. It may not be pretty, as the Gophs will still be breaking in 9 new defensive starters and adjusting to a new OC, but Minnesota will win this one by a couple of touchdowns. At least they better. Minnesota 38 - USD 13.

JD - Remember last season when the Gophers played Syracuse and all anybody could talk about was Greg Paulus and how he had formerly played D1 basketball for Duke?  That was too much for me.  It's all anyone could talk about.  It was ridiculous and I was glad that we won that game and didn't have to face the former Duke basketball player.  He played for Coach K, you know.  The Gophers will beat South Dakota by at least two touchdowns.

  Sat, Sept 18th

GN - It should be fun to have a program like USC come to town.  This game doesn't do much for our final record but as long as this game is relatively competitive it should be a treat for those with a ticket.  USC just has too much talent to predict a Gopher win here.  Maybe they don't take us seriously, maybe the jet lag gets to them, maybe the Gophers play great, maybe it snows on Sep 18th and maybe Tim Brewster gets that signature win we'd all love to see him get.  While stranger things have happened, it is highly unlikely.  Gophers lose by 17.

BB - If a win were to happen in this game, the Gophers would probably be 3-0, headed towards an 8-4 or better season, and Brewster's future would be secure with a signature win in his portfolio.  Unfortunately, I'd place the likelihood of Minnesota winning this game at about 10%.  USC, despite the sanctions, is loaded with the best talent around.  Lane Kiffin, despite his professional wrestling antics, is a good coach and has an experienced staff working under him. 

A good showing would be for Minnesota to keep this game close until the second half or even the fourth quarter.  Minnesota is too young, lacks the depth that USC has, and will wear down as the game progresses.  USC 42 - Minnesota 10.  Gophers' record 2-1.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Seems quite a few people are down on USC right now. Yes, they're facing some tough sanctions and won't be bowl eligible, and yes, Lane Kiffin is not Pete Carroll. But last I checked the Trojans are still chalk full of the four and five star recruits, they return 13 starters, and will be playing with a serious chip on their shoulder. I see SC losing two regular season games at most this year, and one of them certainly won't be to Minnesota. If the Gophs stay within 2 TD's of the Trojans I'll be impressed. USC 42 - Minnesota 21.

JD - I'll say this for Lane Kiffin... he ain't boring.  I feel bad for his dad.  I mean, Monte Kiffin has made a living as one of the top defensive minds in all of football and has always let his coaching do the talking for him.  Suddenly here comes his son who hasn't really proven much of anything as a coach, and he can't keep his mouth shut.  I'm embarrassed to say this, but there was a time when I wanted Kiffin to head up the Gophers.  Of course, my wife will also tell you that I once at dehydrated mashed potatoes that were 18 months past their "best if used by" date, so that should tell you something about my decision making.  Anyway, USC wins by 17.

  Sat, Sept 25th

GN - This game actually scares me more than the MTSU or USD games.  NIU is picked to win the MAC and they return a lot of good football players.  The Huskies have an interesting QB controversy.  You may remember Chandler Harnish as the freshman who in his first collegiate start threw for 326 yards and 2 TDs against the Gophers.  Even after starting for two years he may lose his job.  By this point we should know who our opposing QB will be.  NIU is the favorite in the MAC and will be no pushover in week four.  They have a big offensive line and they return 1,000 yard rusher Chadd Spann.  This game could be a real battle in the trenches but I'm going with my team this week.  Gophers win by 6.

BB - This game could be the "fork-in-the-road" for the season.  Minnesota will probably be coming off of a beating from USC, and may not be at 100% against a tough NIU team.  A MAC team, tough?  Absolutely.  NIU will have an experienced squad that is used to playing together.  Last year they only lost to Wisconsin by 8 points, they beat Purdue, and this year they are expected to win the MAC. 

NIU's strongest weapon in their offense is running back Chad Spann, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry with 19 touchdowns last season.  Along with Me'co Brown who tallied 150 tards on the ground versus Purdue, NIU has a formidable running game.  Minnesota's strength last year, and Cosgrove's greatest strength as a defensive coordinator, is stopping the run.  Due to the USC hangover effect, Minnesota wins a close one.  Minnesota 28 - Northern Illinois 24.  Gophers record 3-1.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - The Huskies are a top 50 team this year, so this one won't be easy. But Minnesota should be 2-1, have things figured out (or close to it) on both sides of the ball, and, well, if you want to be a team good enough to go bowling, you HAVE to beat non-BCS schools in your own building. Get it done Gophs! Minnesota 24 - NIU 20.

JD - Does anyone in major college football schedule more MAC teams than Joel Maturi?  The answer is no.  Gophers win by 13.

   Sat, Oct 2nd

GN -Can the Gophers start out 4-1 and have some momentum heading into the heart of the Big Ten schedule?  In the words of Bob the Builder...Yes We Can!  NU is a good team that finished their 2009 very strong and very nearly beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl.  This team is replacing Mike Kafka and it being the first Big Ten road game for Dan Persa I think the Gophers will prevail here.  NU is good but let's not forget that we did beat them a year ago in spite of our Mulligan Offense.  Gophers win by 3.

BB - Northwestern is always a tough opponent.  PAt Fitzgerald may "do more with less" than any other coach in the Big Ten.  The team flat out plays smart football.  Northwestern will feature a new quarterback, a new starting running back, and a young offensive line without a single senior.  I'll predict that they score 17-24 points against the Gopher defense. 

The key to this game for Minnesota will be their offensive performance against a strong, experienced Northwestern defense.  If they can score in the high 20s, they'll probably win.  Less than 20, they'll probably lose.  I blame Jedd Fisch for the wretched 2009 offense, and I think with Horton's new schemes they'll clear 20 points against Northwestern.  Minnesota 28 - Northwestern 21.  Gophers record 4-1.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Pat Fitzgerald is the coaching equivalent of some kind of mixture of Jesus and General Patton, but I still can't take Northwestern seriously as a team we can't beat. The Wildcats aren't an 8 win team this year...ok with that Glen Mason-esque non-conference schedule, and a Big Ten slate that includes Indiana, Illinois, AND Iowa (I take so much joy in pointing out the Wildcats have won four of the past five against the hated Hawkeyes) maybe they still are, but Minnesota is winning this game. Minnesota 23 - NW 20.

JD - I was in Bismarck, ND on September 26, 2009 watching the Gophers beat Northwestern at Buffalo Wild Wings.  I had boneless wings and two tall beers (just a couple of hours before I was to read scripture at my nieces wedding).  My wife was there too, she had the garden burger... I made fun of her.  It's a nice Buffalo Wild Wings in Bismarck.  If you're ever in the area you should check it out.  Gophers win by a field goal.

   Sat, Oct 9th

GN - And this is where things will either start to get ugly or the Gophers turn some heads.  I'd love to predict a Gopher win here but I'm not willing to call it.  The Badgers are my pick as the #2 Big Ten team and the one with the best chance to knock off OSU.  They are solid and playing at home.  I think we put up a fight and there is a very good chance they are looking ahead to Ohio State but I can't call a win and maintain any level of respectability around here.  Gophers lose by 12.

BB - Here's where things get rough.  Minnesota will be facing a tough, experienced Wisconsin defense.  The offense features John Clay behind a gigantic offensive line, an skilled senior quarterback in Scott Tolzien, and a corp of wide receivers featuring 6'4 Nick Toon.  As much as I'd like to see Minnesota win this one, it won't happen at Camp Randall.  Wisconsin 24 - Minnesota 21.  Gophers' record 4-2.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Don't tell the folks in Columbus and Iowa City, but I think the Badgers will be the best team in the Big Ten. I have nightmares of John Clay and that monster Sconnie offensive line running over our defense. Or those could just be memories from last year. Either way Wisconsin is not losing at home, at least not to us. Last time Minnesota beat the Badgers in Madtown? 1994. Wisconsin 41 - Minnesota 27.

JD - Camp Randall is a fine place to see a football game.  I once took a fan bus with some fellow Gopher fans from a bar in Waukesha, WI, where a friend of mine lived, to see the Gophers play in Madison.  We were the youngest people on the bus by at least 10 years, and we were the only Gopher fans.  The Badger fans were enjoyable.  Many barley-pops were consumed.  My friend Dan was hitting on 50 year old women.  I think that's the same weekend where I "rode" a statue of a cannon in some park in Waukesha.  All in all a pretty epic weekend.  Gophers lose by a TD.

   Sat, Oct 16th

GN -Truth be told, I'm not sold on Purdue this year.  They surpassed expectations last year and had the monster upset of OSU at home.  In a lot of ways I think they are the 2009 version of our 2010 Gophers.  A year ago Purdue was a consensus bottom 2 team in the conference but they were better than the prognosticators prognosticated.  The Gophers will also surpass expectations and notch one big upset.  But I think we can beat Purdue on the road.  Gophers win in OT.

BB - Last year, Purdue was wildly inconsistent.  They upset Ohio State, won at Michigan, and were within 2 points of Oregon, but lost by 37 points to Wisconsin and 15 points to Minnesota.  At this point in the season, I have as good of a shot at predicting the outcome of this game as I do the weather for it.  If Minnesota's paper-thin secondary is beat up at this point, Purdue could win a big game and send the Gophers into another season-ending downward spiral.  If Horton's offense is clicking and the Minnesota defense is healthy, Minnesota could win by two touchdowns.

Despite Purdue's home field advantage, I think that an improved Minnesota offense will make the difference for this game.  Minnesota 28 - Purdue 24.  Gopher's record 5-2.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - I like coach Danny Hope and believe QB Robert Marve and the offense will pile up some points, but like last year, I'm not convinced they'll be able to stop any people. Even our offense. Gophers sneak one out in West Lafayette. Minnesota 31 - Purdue 24.

JD - Joe Tiller's mustache didn't get nearly enough play, but I think I speak for all of Big Ten country when I say thank you to Purdue for replacing Tiller's mustache with an equally handsome manstache.  Neither of those mustaches can touch Carl Pavano's mario-stache with a 10-foot pole, but you know, a good mustache deserves a mention.  Gophers win by 6.

   Sat, Oct 23rd

GN - Penn State is vulnerable this year but not that vulnerable.  If Michigan plays well this season then maybe we catch them in a trap game as PSU has the Wolverines the following week.  This game may actually be close as this isn't the same Penn State team we have seen in the last couple years.  But they are still better than we are.  Penn State wins by 14.

BB - Early in the season, Minnesota might have had a chance to upset Penn State if they were to have a down week.  By game seven, Minnesota's lack of depth on the offensive line and the defensive backfield will probably be an issue.  It's at home, so Minnesota could keep it respectable.  Penn State 35 - Minnesota 24.  Gophers' record 5-3.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK -  Can you say Trap Game? The Nittany Lions will be coming off a Scott Pilgrim vs the World-style beatdown of Illinois, and as much as the coaches will tell them not to, they will absolutely, positively be looking ahead to the Halloween Eve home game against Michigan the following week. The Gophers will take advantage, and Tim Brewster will get his first win against a top 25 team AND his first trophy game in one shot. Ok sure, it's not a trophy either fanbase cares about, but still, it counts as a trophy game. Minnesota 21 - Penn State 20.

JD - There I was watching a Big Ten preview show on ESPNU when they start talking about Penn State.  And just then, it hit me: HOLY CRAP, for a man that will turn 84 years old in December, Joe Paterno has an amazingly thick head of hair!!!  Gophers lose by 9.

   Sat, Oct 30th

GN - This is the ugly game of the year.  Ohio State is pretty good all over the field.  Terrell Pryor is the same athlete as Juice Williams but he's actually a quarterback.  And they have an offensive line, and dangerous running backs, and a defense that has potential all-americans on it.  I tend to believe this is the year of the Buckeye and their trip to TCF Bank Stadium shouldn't be a major stumbling block. 

This is that portion of the schedule that will define this team.  Are they going to go into a tailspin after likely losing three out of four and potentially four in a row?  Or will they fight through these games and come out better for it.  But Gophers lose this particular game by double-digits but less than 21.

BB - After facing Penn State the previous week, Minnesota won't have a chance against Ohio State this late in the season.  Ohio State will probably shut down the Gopher running game, force a few interceptions due to Minnesota 3rd-and-longs, and Terrelle Pryor will look like a Heisman-winning quarterback against a Gopher secondary that will probably be hampered by injures at this point in the season.  Another rung in Ohio State's quest for a BCS Chamionship.  Ohio State 42 - Minnesota 10.  Gophers' record 5-4.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Remember all that momentum and positive vibes from upsetting Penn State? Yeah hang onto those memories-  hard- as the Buckeyes kick the bejeezus out of us for the umpteenth year in a row. Ohio State 45 - Minnesota 13.

JD - Sweater-vests are totally making a comeback.  Which is sweet because I happen to look quite dashing in an argyle sweater-vest.  This is really good news for Ohio State fans too.  You know that saying that goes "in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king"?  I've always liked that saying.  Anyway, in the land of the sweater-vests Jim Tressel has one eye... wait, that came out wrong.  In the land of the blind, Jim Tressel wears a sweater-vest.  CRAP.  Ohio State wins by 23.

  Sat, Nov 6th

GN - Hmmm, this is the hardest gauge.  Michigan State could be fighting for a top 3 or 4 spot in the conference but they also could be the team the Gophers racked up 42 points against.  I think this game is winable and by this point in the season it would be nice to see the defense really coming together and playing well.  While I hope I'm wrong, I don't see the Gophers winning three road games this fall and this is one that they lose.  Gophers lose a close one.

BB - Last year, Minnesota's strongest showing of the year was against Michigan State at home on Halloween night.  This year, Minnesota will play on their turf after facing Penn State and Ohio State in their previous games.  Michigan State will be out for revenge, and the Gophers will be banged up and on the road.  Michigan State 30 - Minnesota 27.  Gophers' record 5-5.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Like last year, these teams should be pretty close in talent, and we'd all be lucky if the game is anywhere near as entertaining. Could go either way, but home field is enough to swing this one for the Spartans. MSU 38 - Minnesota 27.

JD - Have you heard the one about the kid who dresses up like a pirate for Halloween?  He goes around trick-or-treating and one lady says to him, "Oh, what a cute pirate!  But where are your buccaneers?"  So the kid grabs both of his ears, pulls them out a bit from his head so as to show them to the lady and says, "RIGHT HERE LADY, OPEN YOUR BUCKIN' EYES!"  The Spartans win by 10.

   Sat, Nov 13th

GN - As a Gopher fan I think most of us think this is a game we'll win.  Illini fans are probably thinking the same thing.  I am probably not giving Illinois enough respect here but I think this is a game that we will not only win but we will control the line of scrimmage and win by 10 points on the road.

BB - Illinois is predicted to have a freshman starting at quarterback with two sophomores and a freshman on the offensive line.  Last year they only won three games.  Barring several injuries, I can't see Illinois scoring more than 14 points against the Gopher defense.  Minnesota 20 - Illinois 10.  Gophers' record 6-5.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Minnesota gets revenge for last year's upset- or at least the loss was upsetting for Gopher fans. I mean honestly, would you play hard to keep The Zooker's job if you were Illini players, especially with the very real possibility they could already have seven losses before this game? Yeah me neither. And hey, this is also Brewster's first win over a 1-A team in November! The accomplishments just keep piling up. Minnesota 30 - Illinois 20.

JD - Back when I used to go to Gopher games and would tailgate so hard before the games that I could barely focus on the games themselves, I remember one of my friends brought some girl that she knew to a game when Illinois was good and they were playing the Gophers in the Metrodome.  I'd love to tell you when that game was, but I don't remember, and I could look it up, but that would take all the fun out of it (for me).  Anyway, this girl was dating one of the linebackers for Illinois and when she tailgated with us she was going on and on and on about her boyfriend this, Illinois that, Rose Bowl this, ranked team that... at least that's how I remember it.   Anyway, the Gophers ended up winning that game and we gave this girl absolutely unmerciful amounts of crap after the game.  So much so that we finally reduced her to tears (please send your hate emails to buckbravo24@hotmail.com).  I don't know if this story has a happy ending for that girl or not, but what I can tell you is that I managed to talk my way into Brother's that night without having to pay the cover charge.  Gophers win by 10.

   Sat, Nov 27th

GN - Signature win of the season.  Obviously Iowa is very good and they'll have more wins this year than the Gophers.  And obviously picking a Gopher win here is more about hoping they win than actually working through all of the Xs and Os to justify why it will happen.  But here is my justification.  The Gophers get two weeks to prepare for this their last game of the year.  Iowa will be coming off their trip to Columbus which will either be an all-time high or a crushing defeat.  Regardless that will be a physically and emotionally difficult game while the Gophers will get 14 days to rest and prepare for the Hawkeyes.  I'm feeling good about this game.

BB - If there's one game I'd like to see the Gophers win, it is this one.  It won't happen.  the Hawkeyes won't win 55-0, but they'll pull out a close win in the fourth quarter.  Iowa 14 - Minnesota 10.  Gophers' record 6-6.

JG - did not have time to contribute

JK - Iowa's going to lose three games this year, and as much as I'd love to tell you one of them will be to Minnesota, well, I can't. But I can tell you who they will lose to- Arizona, Michigan, and Ohio State. Oh wait, and I forgot their annual loss to Northwestern. So four losses for the Hawkeyes. My mistake. Iowa 17 - Minnesota 13.

JD - Fingernails on a chalkboard.  Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard. Fingernails on a chalkboard.  Iowa wins by 7.

The Consensus?

GN predicts 7-5 - that seems aggressive but I like this particular team.  I realize that I'm picking Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern in our favor; plus I'm giving them a big upset in Iowa.  This is really about the best case scenario, but I think the rumors of the Golden Gopher's demise is greatly exaggerated.  This team will be better than last year.

BB predicts 6-6 - The Gophers' will pull out a 6-6 record despite having one of the toughest schedules in the entire conference.  Unfortunately, the local media doesn't recognize schedule strength as a meaningful factor for determining success.  A .500 season will far exceed most National expectations for Minnesota, but the Gophers will enter 2011 with the same questions being asked as in 2010, 2009, 2008...

JK predicts 7-5 - I'm worried that GN and I are thinking alike here- we're supposed to disagree more. Still, must mean great minds think alike? While this is a make-or-break year for Brewster, I think the pressure is off in some ways because the expectations outside the program seem so incredibly low. The offense HAS to be better this year, and I think Horton's simplistic run-first approach will result in a more confident and more productive offense. Defensively if our secondary stays healthy (a big IF I know) and

JD predicts 6-6 - I have a lot of respect for Buck Bravo, but predicting 6 wins?  C'MON MAAAN!!!  Oh, wait... I did that too.  Yeah, 6 wins, that sounds good.  Big surprise, but I think this team is going to out-punch its weight class in comparison to national expectations as far as number of wins.  But like a good boxer, this team is going to have to pick its spots.  There are winnable games on this schedule and the Gophers must take advantage of them.  It would be fantastic to see Brewster get his first rivalry game win, but I just don't see it happening this year.  Considering experience and the difficult schedule, getting to 6 wins and a mid-tier bowl game is a reasonable goal for this football team.

Our predictions in table format for the visually stimulated among you.

For the record, here were last year's prediction results.  These are how our authors fared versus their predictions.

• GN 11-1
• BB 9-3
• JG 7-5

Thank you very much.

Pictures via www.thefootballschedule.com

Analysts from across the college football blogosphere have written at length about the future of Big Ten realignment.  With the season fast approaching and my future posts likely dedicated to weekly matchups, I'll give my prediction for the final alignment in the Big Ten.

Firstly, there is a very high likelihood that the Big Ten will be divided into two divisions.  An annual conference championship game would be good for ratings, fun for fans, and would bring in additional revenue for the schools.

So, how can there be an equitable split of the Big Ten into two conferences?  I've put together my predictions based upon six factors: 1) Football Revenue, 2) Basketball Revenue, 3) Rivalries, and 4) Balance of Power.

Here's my prediction, which is in no way unique from what others may have written in the past:

Here's how the divisions would break down on a map:

Is this just a geographical breakdown? Absolutely not.  Let's take a look at the team revenues for this scenario.  For the analysis, I used a published list of 2008 team revenues:

Combined, the two divisions would have similar revenue production.  How would this affect rivalries?  If each team were allowed one, or in the case of Penn State two inter-division rivalry to be preserved for each season, the following rivalries would be preserved:

Of the rivalries on the list that I found and referenced, only the Michigan State versus Penn State rivalry game doesn't fit the model.  The only team that would have to play two out-of-division games each year would be Penn State with Nebraska and Iowa.  I don't see that as a problem, as Penn State fans and the media would probably appreciate having both of those teams on the schedule. 

Finally, what about the balance of power?  Well, both divisions would have two perennial powerhouses.  In the following list, I've placed the Big Ten teams into three groups for cumulative football and basketball prowess: 1 = Top Tier and top TV $, 2 = Middle Tier and middle TV $, and 3 = bottom tier for the Big Ten:

The power does appear to be shifted towards to Northwest.  But imagine the revenue potential of an Ohio State/Michigan or Nebraska/Penn State Big Ten Conference championship game. 

Let's look at football wins and basketball championships since 2002.  There were a few years for which there were co-champs in the regular season for basketball.  For football, the Northwest Division has had 369 wins since 2002 and the Southeast Division has had 317.  For basketball, the Northwest Division has had 5 Big Ten Champions and the Southeast has had 8 Champions. 

There's no way to have a perfect split amongst divisions in the Big Ten.  However, I think that this model comes close.

So, what do you think?  Is this an equitable and fair split for the conference?  What would you do differently?

Your Week 1 depth chart is finally out.  Here it is with a few comments below...

First of all Dom Alford and Kyle Theret have been suspended for unspecified team rule violations.  I think we can guess at Theret's but Alford's indiscretions are a new item.

Nothing on offense really stands out as unexpected.  I think there was a chance that MarQueis would end up on the WR depth chart but that didn't happen.  Ed Olson did earn that start at LT and he's being backed up by Dom Alford.

Defensively there are a few notes that are interesting.  Matt Garin is the surprise starter ahead of Ra'Shede Hageman.  The starting linebackers were a minor question mark but the starters play out as expected with the former walk-on, Aaron Hill backing up both OLB spots.  And the secondary is kind of a mess.  James Manuel gets the start as a true freshman and he's backed up by a redshirt freshman in Kenny Watkins.  Brock Vereen is the second string corner giving us a total of 9 freshmen (either true or redshirted) on the defensive two-deep.

Special teams' only real surprise is Ryan Collado as the primary punt returner. 

This is the group that will attempt to take down the Blue Raiders on Thursday night!  What do you think Gopher fans?

And we finally get to the one position on the Gopher depth chart that will divide Gopher fans and ignite passion like no other position.  Like it or not the quarterback depth chart is going to remain exactly the same as it was a year ago at this time.  Much like the offensive line it probably cannot get much worse so this position almost has to be an upgrade by default right?

You be the judge.

Your 2010 starting QB for the fourth consecutive year is going to be Adam Weber.  While not technically true, Weber has basically taken every snap for the last three years and holds (or almost holds) nearly every passing record in the Gopher books.  There are many who were ready for the Weber era to end sometime early last season, but Brewster stuck with his QB and with the exception of the Michigan State game Weber struggled through the entire 2009 season.

In three full seasons Weber is your program leader in yards, completions, attempts and (brace yourself Gophers fans) completion percentage.  I know that one of his biggest criticisms is that he isn't very accurate.  But he has by far the most attempts and currently has completed passes at a higher rate than any other Gopher QB in the program's history.  He is very near the program's leader in touchdown passes and interceptions.  Statistically he has a lot of very good numbers and that is including his freshman season when he was leading a 1-11 team.  In addition to his numbers he is the unquestioned leader of this team. 

I know many Gopher fans want to see more (or want to see QB2) but Weber brings a lot to the table and he should be poised for a senior season that will be much stronger than his junior season.  I'm not here to write an apologist essay on the virtues of Adam Weber, I'm not here to type out the list of excuses why he wasn't able to succeed last year and I'm not here to make any bold predictions for Weber's 2010 season.  I think we all want to see more, specifically in the win column and in his ability to keep his offense on the field. 

After Weber is one of the Gopher's exciting, young, four-star recruits who threw 2 touchdown passes in 2009.  MarQueis Gray?  No I'm talking about Jimmy Gjere.  OK, Gjere isn't your guy under center but he did throw more TD passes in 2009 than your REAL back-up QB.

If Weber is not able to exercise the demons of 2009 or if he goes down to injury your next Gopher QB will be the much anticipated MarQueis Gray.  The former four-star recruit saw some action under center last season but was usually not allowed to throw the ball.  The Jedd Fisch (Mulligan) Offense often used Gray in the Wildcat gopher formation allowing him to make plays with the ball in his hands.  In the air Gray was 6/15 with 1 interception.  On the ground he accounted for 265 yards (5.6 yd average).  He also started the Insight Bowl as a wide receiver and that is where you will see him most often this season. 

As a QB he was unable to beat out Weber this spring as the starting job was reportedly open to competition.  Most believe that the job was Weber's to lose and Gray would have to significantly outplay him to win the starting job.  But at least publicly the job was up for grabs.  Gray is incredibly talented and is dangerous whenever he has the ball in his hands.  Watching him closely in the spring game and the fall scrimmage decision making and accuracy are the obstacles he has to overcome.  And by accuracy issues I mean balls that are just not catchable.  But what he may lack as a passer he would clearly make up with his legs.  Nobody doubts that he'll be able to move the chains with his legs.  When he does take the snaps as your Gopher QB it will be exciting to see what he brings.  That will likely be in 2011.  He'll get to be QB1 in 2010 if Weber is injured or continues to regress to a point where he is doing far more harm than good.

After Gray your third string QB is Moses Alipate.  The redshirt freshman from Bloomington has the size and tools to be a very good QB in this system.  In the spring game Alipate looked the part and some murmurs in the pressbox wondered if he'd make a push to be the #2 QB this fall.  But that never materialized and in the fall scrimmage he didn't have quite the same command.  At 6-5 and 235 pounds, Alipate is a big pocket passer.  He is talented and may push Gray in this coming Spring, especially if Gray is wildly successful as a receiver.  In the end, if Brewster is still coaching this team in 2011 I think that Gray will be your starting QB but that preview is for another day.  In 2010 you won't likely see Alipate on the field.

If this position is a downgrade then it will begin a new era in Gopher football.  My vote here is upgrade.  Kind of like the offensive line, it just has to be an upgrade doesn't it?  With a stronger line, a simplified playbook, an OC who has a knack for working with QBs, a stronger running game and a year to fume about his last 13 games Adam Weber just has to be better.  He doesn't have to be significantly better, but he has to be better.

More photos » Andy King - AP

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Seems like everybody has got a Big Ten Football season preview show of some sort.  Most of the ones that I've seen have, unsurprisingly, covered the Gophers in the last 15 minutes or so of the show... another testament to the level of respect the Gophers are receiving.

I am sitting down to watch ESPN's "Big 10 College Football Preview" and Big Ten Networks "Big Ten Football Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers," and as I do I figured I'd share some thoughts.

ESPN Big 10 College Football Preview

*The first two players highlighted are Duane (whose name they pronounce wrong) Bennett and his 958 carrer rushing yards... ouch, and Ryan Collado.who they refer to as "a playmaker."  Hmmm, interesting.  Moving on.

*Next they mention Troy Stoudemire and his team leading all-purpose yards (over 1,300) in 2009.

*And that's it.  That was their ENTIRE preview of the Gophers.  What was that I was saying about the level of respect the Gophers are receiving?  I was going to go back and make it a point to mention who the commentators on this show were, but at this point, who cares?

Big Ten Football Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers

*Does anyone know why Dave Revsine does that kind of growling/yelling thing when he says "NOOOW!!!"?  Who told him that was a good idea?

*They're showing some Adam Weber highlights, which reminds me... BTN had a replay of last season's contest against Michigan State on Friday night.  This was clearly Weber's best game in 2009, but as I watched the replay I was struck by how good Weber's receivers made him look in that game, specifically Nick Tow-Arnett who made several catches on poorly thrown balls.

*Dinardo just said that it takes 5 full recruiting classes for a coach to get the scholarships on his team the way he wants them. While this may be true, I still think that a good coach needs to figure out how to get his team to produce on the field by year 3.  

*Weber says that they called themselves a running team last year, but they didn't "hang their hat on it."  Another zinger on Jedd Fisch.

*The highlights of Weber have shown some pretty accurate throws... oh please football gods, let Adam Weber be more accurate.

*Sounds like Weber and Horton have a good relationship, which is huge for a QB and his O-coordinator.  Hopefully this means some other pieces will continue to fall into place.

*This season Weber will likely become just the 5th Big Ten player to throw for 10,000 yards in his career.

*Wow, nice to see Duane Bennett drop his shoulder and drive through someone.  He looks bigger than I remember him being in past seasons.  Hopefully he still has the speed we've known him for.

*The Gophers are 11-2 when they run for 100 yards or more over the last 2 years and 2-11 when they fail to break the century mark.  YIKES!  The good news is that we boast the 4th largest offensive line in the country.

*Donnell Kirkwood is a compact and very physical runner, something that this team hasn't seen since Laurence Maroney.

*Howard Griffith and Gerry Dinardo have mentioned how much the offensive system has been simplified under Jeff Horton.  The simplified scheme will obviously help the players, but should there be concern that it will be so simple that it won't be effective?

*In Tim Brewster's first year as head coach of the Gophers (2007) the team gave up over 36 points per game.  In 2009 they gave up just under 24 ppg.  A 12 point swing in two years is damn impressive.

*I really like Donnell Kirkwood.

*Rallis is always around the ball.

*Dinardo just used the word "thirdendary," as in, once you get past the secondary, there's no thirdendary to back you up.  Oddly enough spell-checker doesn't recognize thirdendary as a word.

*Even Jeff Horton is getting in on the Jedd Fisch bashing!!!  "From the first day we came in, back in February this (being a running football team) is the identity that we're going to establish.  And I think that maybe they had heard that before, but they never really stuck to it."

*From a formation standpoint Horton is running a lot of two-back sets, which is quite different than what we saw last year and something we almost never saw in 2007 & 2008.

*In general it seems to me that Jedd Fisch's offense was focused on beating the defense by fooling them, while Jeff Horton's offense may be more focused on beating the defense by perfect execution.

*Johnny Johnson just tried removing Donnell Kirkwood's head on an off-tackle run by Kirkwood.  I'm thinking this is some kind of new form of freshman hazing.

*Weber threw a PERFECT ball to Da'Jon McKnight int he endzone through some fantastic coverage by Johnson.  You couldn't have asked Johnson to cover any better than he did, but Weber just placed the ball exactly where he needed to.

*Tim Brewster doesn't seem to have the sunshine and rainbows coming out of his butt like we're used to seeing from him in the past.  He seems to be a bit edgier, a bit less excitable, and a bit more businesslike.  I like the change.  He says the program is right on schedule in the building process.

Anybody else who has watched some of the preview shows, or who specifically watched BTN's preview of the Gophers, what kind of things struck you while watching?

I was able to make it to TCF this morning to catch the Gopher scrimmage.  I did not stick around to watch the Brewster press conference but here were my thoughts on today's scrimmage.

The Good

• Donnell Kirkwood - the freshman was very impressive today.  He does not have great top end speed but he gets to full speed quickly, bursts through the hole he's given and he is just shifty enough that it is hard to get a direct hit on him so he always seemed to be falling forward on tackles.  I doubt he'll be taking the lion's share of carries but he has a bright future as a Golden Gopher.
• Johnny Johnson - He was the defensive MVP.  He has three monster hits and although he was the one in coverage on McKnight's deep touchdown, the coverage couldn't have been any better.  He was stride for stride and right on McKnight, Weber's pass was just perfect on that play.  Johnson was impressive.
• Adam Weber - looked confident and was accurate.  They really ran the ball a lot today but Weber was solid.  No interceptions and 2 TD passes.  I looked back at last year's fan fest and the TDG recap.  Weber looked good except for the 3 picks he threw.  Today was different he was solid and didn't make mistakes.  Personally I don't think he needs to do what he does better, he just needs to make fewer mistakes. 
• Offensive Line - The first group was solid and for the first time in a long time there were no glaring negative standouts.  I'd be lying if I told you I watched their footwork and angles and dominance, but really it came down to If you don't notice the OL then they are doing their job. 
• Kenny Watkins - and I'm not sucking up to our newest commenter, he was in and around the ball early and often.  I don't know that he'll start and I didn't see anything that would show me that he's guaranteed of anything but he was good today and had a lot of tackles.
  
• MarQueis Gray - as a WR.  I know that Brewster insists he's our future at QB, but he is a natural at receiver.  He is big, he was smooth, he has big hands that go and grab the ball and he runs very well after the catch.  Maybe he'll be a good QB over the next two years but he could be playing on Sundays in a couple years if he moves to WR full time.
• Mike Rallis - once again he was always around the ball.  He didn't make any big plays and I don't know how many tackles he had but he is going to be a good Gopher LB this fall.

Wish I Had Seen More

• Kyle Theret - didn't play until the third or fourth series.  His first play was a big hit that forced a fumble but his few snaps was concerning.
• MarQueis Gray - at QB Gray was inconsistent at best.  He missed an open TE down the middle for a sure TD, he hung a WR out to dry and he fumbled a snap.  On the other hand he hit Stoudermire on a slant for aTD and he had one nice deep ball that apearred to be a very good pass but the DB tackled the WR for pass interference so we don't know if it was going to be caught.
  
• Defensive Line - Some other Gopher sites came up with nice things to say about the DL but I didn't see anything that stood out.  I was hoping to see somebody make a make a few plays but nobody did.  Not that anybody was bad or that they aren't capable, but I didn't see anything today.
• Brandon Green - was another I was expecting to see more of today and he was hardly on the field.
  

It is really hard to get anything meaningful out of this.  The playbook is vanilla and usually it is the #1 offense vs. the #2 defense and vice versa.  But today's performances are really very little of a legit indicator of what we can expect to see this fall. 

For Brewster post game press conference, check out FBT's video.

Many more videos at Gophersports.com.