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Golden Nugz for 05-12-09

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Gopher fans are not accustomed to high ranking recruits choosing the U of Minn.  Generally the most success players to don the maroon and gold were 2 or 3 star players out of high school that blossomed to be some of the best in the Big Ten.  Some prime examples...

  • Greg Eslinger - 2-stars (drafted)
  • Anthony Montgomery - 2stars (drafted)
  • Mark Setterstrom - 2 stars (drafted)
  • Matt Spaeth - 2 stars (drafted)
  • Willie VanDeSteeg - 2-stars
  • Eric Decker - 2 stars!

These are just a handful of examples.  Laurence Maroney is about the only exception as he was a 4-star recruit who happened to also become a top-notch performer.

So with our history of needing to get lucky with 2 and 3 star prospects we do not have a history of seeing 4 or 5 star kids who come to campus, dominate and then move on to the NFL.  Many will say the recruiting rankings are meaningless and they are usually (or at least often) wrong.

While this is true that they are not 100% accurate, others have done the research to show that the Rivals (or Scout or ESPN) rankings are a fairly reliable indicator of future success.  The popular blog Dr. Saturday has done his homework and shows that the higher your star ranking out of high school the greater your chance of NFL draft status.  I probably stated that wrong.  Getting a high start doesn't help you in any way.  But it does show that the individuals evaluating the high school talent and assigning the star ratings seem to do so with a decent success rate.

Star_rankings_draft_ration_medium

Do the Rival's evaluators nail things 100%?  Absolutely not, but considering they are evaluating 17-18 year old kids and projecting how their bodies will develop and how they will respond to the jump in speed and physicality of college football, nailing a 1 in 4 success ratio for 5-stars to get drafted in the first three rounds is pretty remarkable.