Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:
| PICK | NAME | P |
COLLEGE TEAM |
RIVALS STARS |
SCOUT STARS |
ESPN RATING |
|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | QB | Georgia | 5 | 5 | 93 | |
| 2 | Jason Smith | OT | Baylor | 2 | 2 | ||
| 3 | Tyson Jackson | DE | LSU | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | Aaron Curry | OLB | Wake Forest | 2 | 2 | ||
| 5 | Mark Sanchez | QB | USC | 5 | 5 | ||
| 6 | Andre Smith | OT | Alabama | 5 | 5 | 93 | |
| 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | Maryland | 4 | 3 | ||
| 8 | Eugene Monroe | OT | Virginia | 5 | 5 | ||
| 9 | B.J. Raji | DT | Boston College | 2 | 2 | ||
| 10 | Michael Crabtree | WR | Texas Tech | 4 | 2 | 40 | |
| 11 | Aaron Maybin | DE | Penn State | 4 | 4 | 77 | |
| 12 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Georgia | 4 | 4 | 81 | |
| 13 | Brian Orakpo | DE | Texas | 4 | 3 | ||
| 14 | Malcolm Jenkins | CB | Ohio State | 3 | 3 | ||
| 15 | Brian Cushing | OLB | USC | 4 | 5 | ||
| 16 | Larry English | DE | Northern Illinois | 2 | 2 | ||
| 17 | Josh Freeman | QB | Kansas State | 4 | 4 | 80 | |
| 18 | Robert Ayers | DE | Tennessee | 4 | 4 | ||
| 19 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | Missouri | 4 | 3 | 78 | |
| 20 | Brandon Pettigrew | TE | Oklahoma State | 2 | 3 | ||
| 21 | Alex Mack | C | California | 2 | 2 | ||
| 22 | Percy Harvin | WR | Florida | 5 | 5 | 93 | |
| 23 | Michael Oher | OT | Ole Miss | 4 | 5 | ||
| 24 | Peria Jerry | DT | Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | ||
| 25 | Vontae Davis | DB | Illinois | 3 | 3 | 75 | |
| 26 | Clay Matthews | OLB | USC | 0 | 0 | ||
| 27 | Donald Brown | RB | Connecticut | 3 | 2 | ||
| 28 | Eric Wood | C | Louisville | 2 | 2 | ||
| 29 | Hakeem Nicks | WR | North Carolina | 4 | 4 | 73 | |
| 30 | Kenny Britt | WR | Rutgers | 4 | 3 | 40 | |
| 31 | Chris Wells | RB | Ohio State | 5 | 5 | 86 | |
| 32 | Evander Hood | DT | Missouri | 3 | 2 | ||
|
|
ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:
While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.