I don't want to put too much of my own analysis into this, I'm hoping to give you a nice graphical representation as to how many teams are much closer to the actual bubble line than we are.
Blogs and other sources I'm using as a resource for this project.
NOTE: This was written before Wednesday evening games and posted Thursday! Oklahoma St vs. Kansas and UAB vs. Memphis are pretty big ones.
- SBN's Blogging the Bracket
-
Stat Junkie - predicted 100% of the 2010 field based on statistical model
- Joe Lunardi's Bracketology
- Bracket Project's matrix of the other brazillion predictions.
-
CBSSports.com RPI
The Gophers have gone 1-0 since my last Bubble-ology post, but it was win over the weak Hawkeyes. Regardless how weak the win was, it was a win and other teams lost. Every win we can manage goes a long way towards keeping us north of the bubble. Just five games remain before the Big Ten Tournament so lets take a look at our resume today.
Let's take a look at our resume before we start comparing ourselves to the rest of the bubble field.
RPI - 37
SOS - 29
W/L vs. RPI top 100 - 5-6
Big Wins - Purdue (RPI-10), North Carolina (RPI-14), West Virginia (RPI-23)
Bad Losses -@Indiana (RPI-156), Virginia (RPI-151)
Nothing really changed. Iowa is not a top 100 RPI team so the win didn't add to that stat. Our SOS dropped a few spots and RPI went up by one. Our two biggest assets is our RPI of top 40 and our three big wins. Michigan State is a top 50 team (for now) so getting that win at home this coming weekend would be huge.
| (updated thru 2/15) |
Record | RPI | ∆ in RPI | SOS | Conf Rnk | Lst Wk | |
| Old Dominion |
21-6 |
29 |
4 |
66 |
3rd (t) |
2-0 |
SAFE |
| Colorado St |
17-7 | 42 |
-- |
44 |
3rd | 1-0 |
SAFE |
| Memphis |
19-6 |
33 |
3 |
46 |
4th |
1-0 |
SAFE |
| Florida St |
18-7 |
48 |
2 |
83 |
3rd | 1-0 |
SAFE |
| Kansas St |
17-9 |
32 |
3 |
7 |
6th (t) |
1-1 |
Relatively Safe |
| Minnesota | 17-8 | 36 |
1 |
29 |
6th (t) | 1-0 | Relatively Safe |
| UAB |
18-6 |
35 |
-1 |
72 |
2nd | 1-0 |
Relatively Safe |
| Michigan St |
14-11 |
49 |
3 |
5 |
5th |
0-1 |
Relatively Safe |
| Washington |
17-7 |
38 |
-- |
58 |
3rd | 1-0 |
Likely IN |
| Illinois | 16-9 |
41 |
-11 |
21 |
4th | 0-1 |
Likely IN |
| Georgia |
17-7 |
40 |
4 |
36 |
3rd (t) | 1-0 | Likely IN |
| Cleveland St |
22-5 |
39 |
-- |
123 |
2nd | 1-0 | Bubble-IN |
| Harvard | 18-4 |
45 |
-- |
165 |
2nd | 1-0 | Bubble-IN |
| Boston College |
16-9 | 43 |
-- |
19 |
5th (t) |
1-0 | Bubble-IN |
| Marquette | 15-11 |
65 |
25 |
30 |
11th |
0-2 |
Bubble-IN |
| Oklahoma St |
16-8 |
55 |
-6 |
64 |
8th (t) |
0-1 |
Bubble-OUT |
| Missouri St |
21-6 |
47 |
-- |
133 |
1st (t) |
2-0 |
Bubble-OUT |
| Cincinnati | 19-6 |
51 |
-10 |
106 |
10th |
1-0 | Bubble-OUT |
| Butler |
19-9 |
44 |
-- |
51 |
3rd | 2-0 |
Bubble-OUT |
| Penn St |
13-11 |
63 |
-- |
8 |
6th (t) | 1-0 |
Likely OUT |
| Southern Miss |
18-6 |
50 |
-3 |
100 |
2nd (t) |
0-1 |
Likely OUT |
I dropped a few (Gonzaga, Baylor, Wash St and VCU) and added a few more (Clev St, Harvard, Missouir St, Butler and Penn St). UCLA and Texas A&M have moved into the locks and off of my grid. I'm getting my list primarily from StatJunkie. SJ was 100% in predicting the field last year using a computer algorithm. Their site has a % of likelihood attached to each team, currently Minnesota is 63.5% likely to make the field (ahead of nine teams before the cut line).
Teams behind us, still considered "IN" the Tournament.
- StatJunkie - 9
- Blogging the Bracket - 12
- Joe Lunardi - 12
- Bracket Matrix consensus - 13
Again I feel like I should point out that while we haven't looked great lately there are a lot of teams in worse shape than we are. Based on StatJunkie 10 teams will have to outperform us down the stretch for us to be NIT bound. Many of these teams may finish stronger than us but inevitably some will struggle to the finish line. Last year we played out way "IN", this year even if we enter through the backdoor we still have a great shot at getting in.
----------
Games that Matter this Week, and what we need to happen - This weekend's games that may matter to us. Basically we want teams like UNC and West Virginia to win and then we need current bubble teams to lose.
Thursday / Friday
- Minnesota at Penn St
- Virginia Commonwealth at Wichita St
SATURDAY
- Texas A&M at Oklahoma St
- Boston College at North Carolina
- Georgia at Tennessee
- Missouri St at Valpo
- UNLV at Colorado St
- Illinois at Michigan St
SUNDAY
- Cleveland St at Old Dominion
Things are still very early but I thought this might help for us all to get some perspective on what it is going to take to make the NCAA Tournament.