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Last time the prediction engine gets revved up for 2013. As I do every year, I'll shut the beast down over the offseason and make any and all necessary improvements to build a more perfect death machine model.
And no, I didn't factor in losing the Rodeo Bowl in the equation. Nor will I ever.
Models
A little primer on how the Cuse and Gophers match up from a statistical perspective (adjusted for strength of opponent, of course).
Hey, Football Outsider stats! As a reminder, here's a glossary.
One caveat here, I don't use Bill Connelly's EqPts metric in my calculations. Instead, I've derived an equivalent value of my own that represents the same thing: an expected or equivalent point value based upon the yard marker the play stopped at. The big difference between Bill and I's derivations? The tail for my EVPoints are much thinner and the slope inside the redzone is higher.
| Minnesota | Syracuse | |
| Close % | 93.6% | 75.0% |
| Total Offense | ||
| Close Leverage % | 65.5% | 65.5% |
| Close Success % | 30.2% | 27.1% |
| Close EVPP | 0.327 | 0.319 |
| Close EVPP+ | 0.629 | 0.590 |
| Close TD Drive % | 24.7% | 22.6% |
| Close Plays Per Drive | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| Total Defense | ||
| Close Leverage % Allowed | 65.2% | 65.2% |
| Close Success % Allowed | 28.2% | 27.4% |
| Close EVPP Allowed | 0.292 | 0.348 |
| Close EVPP+ Allowed | 0.574 | 0.622 |
| Close TD Drive % Allowed | 21.7% | 24.3% |
| Close Plays Per Drive Allowed | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Rushing Offense | ||
| Close Yards Per Rush | 5.09 | 5.38 |
| Close Success % | 28.5% | 27.5% |
| Close EVPP | 0.318 | 0.357 |
| Close EVPP+ | 0.603 | 0.632 |
| Close Line Yards Per Carry | 3.05 | 3.01 |
| Close Highlight Yards Per Carry | 1.99 | 2.32 |
| Rushing Defense | ||
| Close Yards Per Rush Allowed | 4.97 | 4.99 |
| Close Success % Allowed | 27.6% | 27.0% |
| Close EVPP Allowed | 0.261 | 0.337 |
| Close EVPP+ Allowed | 0.537 | 0.607 |
| Close Line Yards Per Carry Allowed | 2.64 | 2.79 |
| Close Highlight Yards Per Carry Allowed | 2.20 | 2.14 |
| Passing Offense | ||
| Close Yards Per Dropback | 6.12 | 5.27 |
| Close Success % | 34.7% | 27.2% |
| Close EVPP | 0.361 | 0.272 |
| Close EVPP+ | 0.708 | 0.544 |
| Standard Down/Passing Down Sack % Allowed | 11.6% / 8.0% | 2.6% / 4.8% |
| Passing Defense | ||
| Close Yards Per Dropback Allowed | 6.18 | 5.87 |
| Close Success % Allowed | 28.3% | 27.8% |
| Close EVPP Allowed | 0.318 | 0.358 |
| Close EVPP+ Allowed | 0.601 | 0.636 |
| Standard Down/Passing Down Sack % | 3.1% / 5.4% | 7.7% / 6.2% |
First thing to note: Syracuse has experienced their share of blowouts. And most of them were not positive outcomes for the Orange. That's something to keep in mind if the Gophers are able to execute and put Cuse behind the eight ball early.
Oddly enough, Minnesota and Syracuse have very similar stat profiles. They are both rush first teams that want to stop the run on defense. The Gophers simply execute on that philosophy right now, something no one should find surprising given Syracuse's youth and first year in Scott Shafer's regime compared to Kill's year 3. The most glaring difference between the two squads is in the passing game, where the Gophers shine (relatively speaking) compared to their Orange counterparts. Philip Nelson and his young receiving trio will have the chance to make some plays down field, while the Orange will rely upon Terrel Hunt to not make mistakes. Syracuse's passing game is not particularly explosive.
A danger zone for the Gophers is protecting Nelson and/or Mitch Leidner against an aggressive Syracuse front 4. Minnesota hasn't done a great job protecting their quarterbacks this season, especially in non-obvious passing situations where play action should be available.
Survey says...
| Gopher Win Probability | 70.2% |
| Predicted Points Scored | 30.3 |
| Predicted Points Allowed | 20.5 |
| Predicted Margin of Victory | 9.8 |
| Current Vegas Spread | Gophers -4 |
| Current Vegas Over/Under | 47.5 |
It's not just my model that likes Minnesota here by a decent margin. F/+ and Brian Fremeau project the Gophers to win by nearly double digits. The lone outlier here is Vegas. Always Vegas man.
Again, the Maroon and Gold are simply a better, more balanced team than Syracuse nearly any way you slice it. They're better on offense, defense, special teams and winning the field position battle. The Orange are not uniquely equipped to stop what Minnesota wants to do on offense (like Iowa, Wisconsin or Michigan State) and they don't have the type of weapons to exploit vulnerabilities in the Gopher secondary. This game could easily dissolve into a grinding slugfest, which would also play more into Minnesota's strengths.
Bottles
To commemorate the Gophers' second straight trip to Houston, I've decided to feature not one but two different Texas inspired bottles.
For the barley soda fans out there, I'll stick with a classic: Shiner Bock.
For you whiskey hounds, do yourself a favor and find some Balcones Baby Blue Corn Whisky.
