M&B tried to caution Vegas against irrational confidence last week. Vegas didn't listen.
Not much change at the top, though look out for falling Church Oregon. Dana Holgorsen only chugged 50 Red Bulls in celebration.
Models and Bottles Refreshers!
Models and Bottles Refreshers!
Illinois is patently awful. Last week's under-performance relative to expectations drops the Gophers down a few spots, though the real aim is not to out-perform the model but to get through this stretch of the season 4-0.
Starting this week, say goodbye to the strict model. Weekly performance of the flex model has stabilize to a point where I have confidence in the results.
|Gopher Win Probability||73.7%|
|Predicted Margin of Victory||10.11|
|Current Vegas Spread||-5.5|
|Current Vegas Over/Under||55.5|
Vegas is broken. Even if you're uncomfortable with the idea of Minnesota as a double digit road favorite, there's almost zero algorithm or model based estimate of these teams that would put the Gophers as less than a ten point favorite on a neutral field. I can understand a small knee jerk reaction to only beating Purdue by a single point, but not this much of a pendulum swing.
|Mean B1G Wins||5.21||5.58|
|Freq. of 5+ B1G Wins||75.3%||88.9%|
|Freq. of 6+ B1G Wins||38.5%||54.6%|
|Freq. of 7+ B1G Wins||10.4%||14.1%|
F/+ and M&B sims are becoming more closely aligned as the season progresses, mostly due to increasingly strong opinions of Nebraska and Ohio State based upon the evidence. The key divergences are Iowa and Wisconsin, which for the moment are projected to be closer games than F/+ suggests.
Performance of the picks year-to-date? Hovering around 67% -- not too shabby.
|Northern Ill.||Eastern Mich.||27.2%||-9.84|
|Kent St.||Miami (OH)||23.9%||-11.59|
|San Jose St.||Navy||58.4%||3.4|
|West Virginia||Oklahoma St.||30.4%||-8.29|
|Ohio St.||Penn St.||16.5%||-16.25|
|Louisiana Tech||Southern Miss.||27.3%||-9.77|
|Boston College||Wake Forest||14%||-18.13|
|Old Dominion||Western Ky.||77.5%||12.38|
I never realized how funny everyone else in the conference thought Tim Brewster was until Illinois went ahead and hired a Timmy B of their own. Statements like the one within the first 18 seconds here are simply hysterical, a comedy styling that will most assuredly be missed when it's gone (and very soon).
I didn't really see the gallows humor of all the inane things the Brewster would spout off after humiliating losses, subjecting pleebish bloggers like myself to the worst kind of insular myopia, but I most certainly do know. I listen to that clip, close my eyes and transport myself back to 2010 when everyone but the man speaking knew he was getting shipped to a farm up north. Absurdism like this is usually reserved for EDSBS, but in this case, the other Timmy B is a treasure that must be shared... and cherished.
Thankfully we have an adult in charge who averted the planned demolition by gutting the below grade facade, burned all the cheap Ikea furniture inside and backed up several cement mixers onto the lot. It took a while, but you can't look at House Illinois and House Minnesota without noticing they're completely different structures. One is adorned in a dab gray neutrals tones to cover up support beams buckling at the base, while they other is solid, ahem, brick by brick.
So, in honor of the six (or less) weeks we have to appreciate the unintentional comedy of Tim Beckman, the bottle selection of the week is 612 Brew SIX. You didn't think I was going to pick a Chicago beer, did you?