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Minnesota Football Game Predictions: Illinois Fighting Illini

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Forecasting the upcoming game between the gray hazmat suit Illini and Minnesota. Plus, beer!

Adam Pretty

M&B tried to caution Vegas against irrational confidence last week. Vegas didn't listen.

Models

Not much change at the top, though look out for falling Church Oregon. Dana Holgorsen only chugged 50 Red Bulls in celebration.

Rank Team Bayesian Probability Delta
1 Mississippi .961 0
2 TCU .937 2
3 Mississippi State .931 0
4 Alabama .904 5
5 Georgia .893 3
6 Auburn .892 0
7 Oklahoma .890 -2
8 Ohio State .888 3
9 Michigan State .886 3
10 Baylor .877 -8
11 Oregon .873 2
12 LSU .871 4
13 Kansas State .851 2
14 Nebraska .841 5
15 Florida State .838 2
16 Marshall .829 8
17 USC .826 8
18 Notre Dame .823 0
19 West Virginia .823 17
20 Arkansas .815 -6
21 Arizona .812 1
22 Utah .799 -1
23 Louisville .793 -3
24 Clemson .792 -1
25 Texas A&M .791 -18
45 Minnesota .687 -4
100 Illinois .444 -5

Models and Bottles Refreshers!

Illinois is patently awful. Last week's under-performance relative to expectations drops the Gophers down a few spots, though the real aim is not to out-perform the model but to get through this stretch of the season 4-0.

Starting this week, say goodbye to the strict model. Weekly performance of the flex model has stabilize to a point where I have confidence in the results.

Flex Model
Gopher Win Probability 73.7%
Predicted Margin of Victory 10.11
Current Vegas Spread -5.5
Current Vegas Over/Under 55.5

Vegas is broken. Even if you're uncomfortable with the idea of Minnesota as a double digit road favorite, there's almost zero algorithm or model based estimate of these teams that would put the Gophers as less than a ten point favorite on a neutral field. I can understand a small knee jerk reaction to only beating Purdue by a single point, but not this much of a pendulum swing.

For what it's worth, both F/+ and FEI have the Gophers winning by at least two touchdowns. I'm inclined to trust them (and my own models) more than Vegas.

Gopher B1G Win Simulations
Flex M&B F/+
Mean B1G Wins 5.21 5.58
Freq. of 5+ B1G Wins 75.3% 88.9%
Freq. of 6+ B1G Wins 38.5% 54.6%
Freq. of 7+ B1G Wins 10.4% 14.1%

F/+ and M&B sims are becoming more closely aligned as the season progresses, mostly due to increasingly strong opinions of Nebraska and Ohio State based upon the evidence. The key divergences are Iowa and Wisconsin, which for the moment are projected to be closer games than F/+ suggests.

Performance of the picks year-to-date? Hovering around 67% -- not too shabby.

VisitTeam HomeTeam HomeWP ExpMargin
UAB Arkansas 75.1% 11.03
South Carolina Auburn 84.9% 17.23
Akron Ball St. 57.5% 3.01
BYU Boise St. 46.8% -1.28
Central Mich. Buffalo 25% -10.97
South Fla. Cincinnati 65.8% 6.54
Syracuse Clemson 68.1% 7.57
UCLA Colorado 21.6% -12.91
Wyoming Colorado St. 84.6% 17.06
UConn East Carolina 92.1% 24.58
Northern Ill. Eastern Mich. 27.2% -9.84
Nevada Hawaii 32.8% -7.18
Minnesota Illinois 26.7% -10.11
Texas Kansas St. 66.8% 7.01
Mississippi St. Kentucky 12.7% -19.29
Texas St. La.-Monroe 39.2% -4.39
Ole Miss LSU 21.4% -13.03
Fla. Atlantic Marshall 78.6% 13.04
Kent St. Miami (OH) 23.9% -11.59
Michigan Michigan St. 82.3% 15.37
Vanderbilt Missouri 90.4% 22.41
San Jose St. Navy 58.4% 3.4
Rutgers Nebraska 80.9% 14.44
West Virginia Oklahoma St. 30.4% -8.29
Ohio St. Penn St. 16.5% -16.25
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 57.6% 3.05
North Texas Rice 74% 10.48
Memphis SMU 5% -29.48
Troy South Ala. 61.5% 4.68
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 27.3% -9.77
Oregon St. Stanford 65.5% 6.42
Texas Tech TCU 91.5% 23.78
Alabama Tennessee 21.2% -13.13
Massachusetts Toledo 45.6% -1.78
Temple UCF 49.2% -0.33
Southern California Utah 45.5% -1.78
UNLV Utah St. 71.8% 9.34
North Carolina Virginia 66.3% 6.75
Miami (FL) Virginia Tech 53.4% 1.36
Boston College Wake Forest 14% -18.13
Arizona St. Washington 38% -4.88
Arizona Washington St. 28.9% -8.99
Old Dominion Western Ky. 77.5% 12.38
Ohio Western Mich. 67.4% 7.26
Maryland Wisconsin 40.1% -4

Bottles

I never realized how funny everyone else in the conference thought Tim Brewster was until Illinois went ahead and hired a Timmy B of their own. Statements like the one within the first 18 seconds here are simply hysterical, a comedy styling that will most assuredly be missed when it's gone (and very soon).

I didn't really see the gallows humor of all the inane things the Brewster would spout off after humiliating losses, subjecting pleebish bloggers like myself to the worst kind of insular myopia, but I most certainly do know. I listen to that clip, close my eyes and transport myself back to 2010 when everyone but the man speaking knew he was getting shipped to a farm up north. Absurdism like this is usually reserved for EDSBS, but in this case, the other Timmy B is a treasure that must be shared... and cherished.

Thankfully we have an adult in charge who averted the planned demolition by gutting the below grade facade, burned all the cheap Ikea furniture inside and backed up several cement mixers onto the lot. It took a while, but you can't look at House Illinois and House Minnesota without noticing they're completely different structures. One is adorned in a dab gray neutrals tones to cover up support beams buckling at the base, while they other is solid, ahem, brick by brick.

So, in honor of the six (or less) weeks we have to appreciate the unintentional comedy of Tim Beckman, the bottle selection of the week is 612 Brew SIX. You didn't think I was going to pick a Chicago beer, did you?