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Statistical Abstract: Minnesota v. Louisville

Visualizing the Minnesota Louisville Game.


Four Factors

School Pace ORtg eFG TO ORB FT/FGA
Minnesota 78.8 86.1 43.6 20.6 23.7 .364
Louisville 78.8 102.5 52.0 18.0 22.6 .58

Since this is the first game of the season, let me explain this table. This table shows the Four Factors, Offensive Ratings and Pace of both teams. I've put in bold which team "won" the category. The Four Factors are not equal. While the exact breakdown is subject to contention, it's generally believed that eFG is the most important, followed by turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws. The last two categories have likely been flipped over the last few years as more coaches put a premium on getting back in transition.

  • Pace is an estimate of the number of possessions in the game. I'm currently working to make this an actual number instead of an estimate, but that will come later this year.
  • ORtg is a team's offensive rating. It is an estimate of the number of points a team would score per 100 possessions.
  • eFG stands for effective field goal percentage. Unlike the class FG percentage, effective field goal percentage incorporates the obvious fact that a 3 point shot is worth more than a two point shot.
  • TO estimates the number of turnovers a team commits per 100 possessions. ORB is the percentage of rebounds grabbed by the offense. It is a reverse of the defensive rebound.
  • FT/FGA is a percentage of the free throw attempts to field goal attempts.

As can be seen from the table, Louisville won three of four factors while scoring a little over a point per possession (normalized to 100 possessions). One additional fact to highlight is that the Free Throw disparity was massive in the game. Minnesota will not be competitive in any game where most of their starters are on the bench with foul trouble.

Point Distribution

This graph shows the scoring by time during the game. Louisville opened up the game in the middle of the first half with a 15-2 run that came against Minnesota's bench because most of the starters were in foul trouble. Foul trouble was a major problem for the Gophers. Some of that was inexperience by new players, notably Bakary Konate, and some was due to the fact that the Gophers were playing a great opponent. Unsurprisingly, when the starters were able to play extended minutes, Minnesota was more competitive.

Defensive Breakdown

The data for this heat map comes from The heat map showing the FG% allowed at different times in the shot clock. Darker tiles indicate a higher FG%. The white tiles show that Louisville only attempted 3 point shots 30 seconds into the possession. 25% of Louisville's FGA were in transition, and they had an eFG of almost 85%.