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Minnesota Football Game Predictions: Nebraska Cornhuskers

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Computer simulation and predictions for the Gophers vs. Nebraska. We wash it all down with a glass of some of the finest spirit available.

Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Stretch run for M&B. Have to make sure the models bring their A game like they did against Michigan.

Models

You absolutely cannot struggle against Kansas and expect to stay #1, Battletoads. The M&B Top 10 is starting to look a lot like the CFP poll, with the notable exception of F%@k Marshall does not apply to computers and of course trolling #FSUtwitter, again.

Also, the curious case of Arkansas and Hogville. BERT finally broke through his streak of losing to Top 26 opponents by a single score on the 6th attempt. Good job, good effort!

Rank Team Bayesian Prob Last Week Delta
1 Mississippi .928 1
2 Baylor .921 1
3 Alabama .909 1
4 TCU .906 -3
5 Oregon .901 0
6 Mississippi State .894 1
7 Ohio State .886 -1
8 Michigan State .884 1
9 Georgia .875 2
10 Marshall .867 3
11 Arkansas .866 4
12 Florida State .847 2
13 Wisconsin .845 6
14 Kansas State .841 2
15 Memphis .834 9
16 USC .829 1
17 Oklahoma .827 1
18 LSU .820 -10
19 Georgia Tech .814 6
20 Louisville .813 0
21 Auburn .790 -11
22 Texas .787 7
23 Tennessee .784 17
24 UCLA .780 4
25 Arizona .779 -2
32 Nebraska .761 -20
37 Minnesota .732 -1

Models and Bottles Refreshers!

One of the teams for the game of our collective interests lost a tough fought battle at home to one of the best teams in the nation. The other got boatraced on the road and gave up 400,000 rushing yards.

My, how the roles have reversed since the 90's.

Flex Model
Gopher Win Probability 46.1%
Predicted Margin of Victory -1.55
Current Vegas Spread +10
Current Vegas Over/Under 56.5

Minnesota is playing some of their best football of the season these last two weeks, while Nebraska... woof. The Huskers' Bayesian adjustment was severe, making this week's contest much closer from an M&B perspective than the Vegas optics. Do I go with the brain, or the heart of a gambler here?

In a vacuum or a neutral field, I'd tend to agree with M&B. I don't think the Huskers are quite as bad as their showing in Madison, though they were exposed a bit after getting fat off playing much of the B1G underclass. If momentum is such a thing, the Gophers may have it after playing really well the last two weeks. Still, winning games on the road is difficult in the B1G -- especially in Lincoln, where Pelini has only lost to Northwestern (lolwut), Michigan State (last year's Galaxy class defense) and Iowa. The only team to even remotely challenge the Huskers at home this season has been McNeese State.

Football is weird.

More games!

Visit Team Home Team Home WP% Expected Margin
Massachusetts Akron 23.3% -11.92
Washington St. Arizona St. 62.9% 5.29
Ole Miss Arkansas 33.3% -6.96
Eastern Mich. Ball St. 78% 12.65
Oklahoma St. Baylor 90.9% 23.02
Kent St. Buffalo 69.5% 8.21
Stanford California 41.3% -3.52
Western Mich. Central Mich. 33.2% -7
Georgia St. Clemson 94.3% 28.06
New Mexico Colorado St. 77.7% 12.5
North Carolina Duke 64.7% 6.06
Tulane East Carolina 70.1% 8.5
Boston College Florida St. 79.4% 13.49
UNLV Hawaii 74.4% 10.69
Tulsa Houston 83.1% 15.93
Penn St. Illinois 20.2% -13.76
Wisconsin Iowa 30.5% -8.24
Texas Tech Iowa St. 45.3% -1.91
Appalachian St. La.-Lafayette 48.4% -0.63
South Fla. Memphis 92.6% 25.24
Maryland Michigan 43% -2.8
Rutgers Michigan St. 80.4% 14.14
Fla. Atlantic Middle Tenn. 53.9% 1.57
Vanderbilt Mississippi St. 94% 27.56
Minnesota Nebraska 53.9% 1.55
Fresno St. Nevada 61.4% 4.63
La.-Monroe New Mexico St. 22.4% -12.44
FIU North Texas 43.1% -2.76
Louisville Notre Dame 37.1% -5.26
Northern Ill. Ohio 41.3% -3.52
Indiana Ohio St. 91.8% 24.1
Kansas Oklahoma 74.2% 10.58
Colorado Oregon 92% 24.48
Syracuse Pittsburgh 59% 3.64
Northwestern Purdue 40.4% -3.87
UTEP Rice 46.5% -1.42
Air Force San Diego St. 37.9% -4.94
South Ala. South Carolina 70.3% 8.6
Missouri Tennessee 52.6% 1.04
Arkansas St. Texas St. 33.6% -6.81
Bowling Green Toledo 55.8% 2.35
Marshall UAB 15.6% -16.92
SMU UCF 88.4% 20.29
Southern California UCLA 42.3% -3.09
Cincinnati UConn 20.7% -13.4
Arizona Utah 48.8% -0.47
San Jose St. Utah St. 81.3% 14.67
Miami (FL) Virginia 41% -3.66
Virginia Tech Wake Forest 16.8% -15.97
Oregon St. Washington 55.6% 2.23
Kansas St. West Virginia 38.9% -4.5
UTSA Western Ky. 70% 8.48
Boise St. Wyoming 25.4% -10.78

Bottles

Nebraska has lots of corn. Their team is called the Cornhuskers. Bourbon's primary grain is corn.

Today's bottle selection is gonna be a bourbon, right?

Nope! Gonna toss some shade in the Huskers' general direction and go with a wheated whiskey instead. As Gopher Nation can attest, this week's selection is some of the finest hooch around and could very well be Whiskey Advocate's American Whiskey of the Year.

Yes, I'm rolling with Parker's Heritage Wheat. If you're lucky enough to get your hands on a bottle or a glass of this stuff, please do. Superb stuff.