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Stretch run for M&B. Have to make sure the models bring their A game like they did against Michigan.
Models
You absolutely cannot struggle against Kansas and expect to stay #1, Battletoads. The M&B Top 10 is starting to look a lot like the CFP poll, with the notable exception of F%@k Marshall does not apply to computers and of course trolling #FSUtwitter, again.
Also, the curious case of Arkansas and Hogville. BERT finally broke through his streak of losing to Top 26 opponents by a single score on the 6th attempt. Good job, good effort!
| Rank | Team | Bayesian Prob | Last Week Delta |
| 1 | Mississippi | .928 | 1 |
| 2 | Baylor | .921 | 1 |
| 3 | Alabama | .909 | 1 |
| 4 | TCU | .906 | -3 |
| 5 | Oregon | .901 | 0 |
| 6 | Mississippi State | .894 | 1 |
| 7 | Ohio State | .886 | -1 |
| 8 | Michigan State | .884 | 1 |
| 9 | Georgia | .875 | 2 |
| 10 | Marshall | .867 | 3 |
| 11 | Arkansas | .866 | 4 |
| 12 | Florida State | .847 | 2 |
| 13 | Wisconsin | .845 | 6 |
| 14 | Kansas State | .841 | 2 |
| 15 | Memphis | .834 | 9 |
| 16 | USC | .829 | 1 |
| 17 | Oklahoma | .827 | 1 |
| 18 | LSU | .820 | -10 |
| 19 | Georgia Tech | .814 | 6 |
| 20 | Louisville | .813 | 0 |
| 21 | Auburn | .790 | -11 |
| 22 | Texas | .787 | 7 |
| 23 | Tennessee | .784 | 17 |
| 24 | UCLA | .780 | 4 |
| 25 | Arizona | .779 | -2 |
| 32 | Nebraska | .761 | -20 |
| 37 | Minnesota | .732 | -1 |
Models and Bottles Refreshers!
Models and Bottles Refreshers!
One of the teams for the game of our collective interests lost a tough fought battle at home to one of the best teams in the nation. The other got boatraced on the road and gave up 400,000 rushing yards.
My, how the roles have reversed since the 90's.
| Flex Model | |
| Gopher Win Probability | 46.1% |
| Predicted Margin of Victory | -1.55 |
| Current Vegas Spread | +10 |
| Current Vegas Over/Under | 56.5 |
Minnesota is playing some of their best football of the season these last two weeks, while Nebraska... woof. The Huskers' Bayesian adjustment was severe, making this week's contest much closer from an M&B perspective than the Vegas optics. Do I go with the brain, or the heart of a gambler here?
In a vacuum or a neutral field, I'd tend to agree with M&B. I don't think the Huskers are quite as bad as their showing in Madison, though they were exposed a bit after getting fat off playing much of the B1G underclass. If momentum is such a thing, the Gophers may have it after playing really well the last two weeks. Still, winning games on the road is difficult in the B1G -- especially in Lincoln, where Pelini has only lost to Northwestern (lolwut), Michigan State (last year's Galaxy class defense) and Iowa. The only team to even remotely challenge the Huskers at home this season has been McNeese State.
Football is weird.
More games!
| Visit Team | Home Team | Home WP% | Expected Margin |
| Massachusetts | Akron | 23.3% | -11.92 |
| Washington St. | Arizona St. | 62.9% | 5.29 |
| Ole Miss | Arkansas | 33.3% | -6.96 |
| Eastern Mich. | Ball St. | 78% | 12.65 |
| Oklahoma St. | Baylor | 90.9% | 23.02 |
| Kent St. | Buffalo | 69.5% | 8.21 |
| Stanford | California | 41.3% | -3.52 |
| Western Mich. | Central Mich. | 33.2% | -7 |
| Georgia St. | Clemson | 94.3% | 28.06 |
| New Mexico | Colorado St. | 77.7% | 12.5 |
| North Carolina | Duke | 64.7% | 6.06 |
| Tulane | East Carolina | 70.1% | 8.5 |
| Boston College | Florida St. | 79.4% | 13.49 |
| UNLV | Hawaii | 74.4% | 10.69 |
| Tulsa | Houston | 83.1% | 15.93 |
| Penn St. | Illinois | 20.2% | -13.76 |
| Wisconsin | Iowa | 30.5% | -8.24 |
| Texas Tech | Iowa St. | 45.3% | -1.91 |
| Appalachian St. | La.-Lafayette | 48.4% | -0.63 |
| South Fla. | Memphis | 92.6% | 25.24 |
| Maryland | Michigan | 43% | -2.8 |
| Rutgers | Michigan St. | 80.4% | 14.14 |
| Fla. Atlantic | Middle Tenn. | 53.9% | 1.57 |
| Vanderbilt | Mississippi St. | 94% | 27.56 |
| Minnesota | Nebraska | 53.9% | 1.55 |
| Fresno St. | Nevada | 61.4% | 4.63 |
| La.-Monroe | New Mexico St. | 22.4% | -12.44 |
| FIU | North Texas | 43.1% | -2.76 |
| Louisville | Notre Dame | 37.1% | -5.26 |
| Northern Ill. | Ohio | 41.3% | -3.52 |
| Indiana | Ohio St. | 91.8% | 24.1 |
| Kansas | Oklahoma | 74.2% | 10.58 |
| Colorado | Oregon | 92% | 24.48 |
| Syracuse | Pittsburgh | 59% | 3.64 |
| Northwestern | Purdue | 40.4% | -3.87 |
| UTEP | Rice | 46.5% | -1.42 |
| Air Force | San Diego St. | 37.9% | -4.94 |
| South Ala. | South Carolina | 70.3% | 8.6 |
| Missouri | Tennessee | 52.6% | 1.04 |
| Arkansas St. | Texas St. | 33.6% | -6.81 |
| Bowling Green | Toledo | 55.8% | 2.35 |
| Marshall | UAB | 15.6% | -16.92 |
| SMU | UCF | 88.4% | 20.29 |
| Southern California | UCLA | 42.3% | -3.09 |
| Cincinnati | UConn | 20.7% | -13.4 |
| Arizona | Utah | 48.8% | -0.47 |
| San Jose St. | Utah St. | 81.3% | 14.67 |
| Miami (FL) | Virginia | 41% | -3.66 |
| Virginia Tech | Wake Forest | 16.8% | -15.97 |
| Oregon St. | Washington | 55.6% | 2.23 |
| Kansas St. | West Virginia | 38.9% | -4.5 |
| UTSA | Western Ky. | 70% | 8.48 |
| Boise St. | Wyoming | 25.4% | -10.78 |
Bottles
Nebraska has lots of corn. Their team is called the Cornhuskers. Bourbon's primary grain is corn.
Today's bottle selection is gonna be a bourbon, right?
Nope! Gonna toss some shade in the Huskers' general direction and go with a wheated whiskey instead. As Gopher Nation can attest, this week's selection is some of the finest hooch around and could very well be Whiskey Advocate's American Whiskey of the Year.
Yes, I'm rolling with Parker's Heritage Wheat. If you're lucky enough to get your hands on a bottle or a glass of this stuff, please do. Superb stuff.