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Minnesota Football Game Predictions: Iowa Hawkeyes

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HATE WEEK PROGNOSTICATIONS!

Mark Kolbe

Time to blitz these HATE BREWS.

Models

During the Gopher bye week, the Battletoads continued their ascension to the top of the M&B ranks and overtook the entire state of Mississippi in the process. After narrowly escaping against the Holgo rage, they remain computer champions. Georgia? Think about the choices you've made in life that brought you to this point.

Rank Team BayesianProb Delta
1 TCU .932 0
2 Mississippi .929 0
3 Mississippi State .923 0
4 Baylor .911 6
5 Oklahoma .910 2
6 Alabama .902 -2
7 Oregon .893 2
8 Michigan State .893 -3
9 Auburn .893 2
10 Ohio State .887 3
11 Kansas State .885 1
12 LSU .882 -4
13 Nebraska .856 2
14 Florida State .851 4
15 West Virginia .851 2
16 Arkansas .846 -2
17 USC .834 7
18 Marshall .833 2
19 Notre Dame .821 3
20 Wisconsin .820 6
21 Memphis .814 0
22 Clemson .800 3
23 Georgia .800 -17
24 Utah .793 -1
25 Arizona State .778 5
34 Iowa .760 13
64 Minnesota .616 1

Models and Bottles Refreshers!

The loss to Illinois dropped the Gophers 20 slots in the ranks, while drubbing a walking hyperbole vocoder gave the Hawkeyes a huge boost. Due to the way the model handles post-game adjustments, I suspect there's a bit of overreach on both ends of that spectrum. Yet another thing to examine in the offseason is a more efficient adjustment mechanism.

On to the HATE projections:

Flex Model
Gopher Win Probability 33.7%
Predicted Margin of Victory -6.77
Current Vegas Spread PICKEM
Current Vegas Over/Under 44.0

What? That doesn't seem right...

HATEWEEKPROBS
Much, much better.

This game is where I wish I had a home field adjustment (HFA) built into the model. Briefly, determining whether the game is played at home versus a neutral site is a significant co-variate for points scored (it is, by the way) is simple in a probabilistic model. However, my model is only partially stochastic and instead based more on a purely mathematical relationship.

Furthermore, I suspect HFA has similar properties to "Park Factors" in sabermetrics, meaning stadiums may have potentially differing degrees of expected points added (or lost) and those HFAs may also vary by other random effects, such as weather, rivalry, etc. That quickly becomes a more involved and complicated exercise, one which I'd love to explore but for the sake of evaluating performance of this iteration of M&B I chose to put off. I like the (mathematical) simplicity of this model and didn't want to corrupt it with endogenous factors like HFA.

In English, I think the TCF Bank Stadium HFA to Minnesota may be different in November, in 35 degree weather, against a primary rival than it would in late August against a scrub. That may bring the expected margin and probability closer to a PICK'EM or a 1 point Gopher win, as the F/+ projections suggest*.

No sims for the week, since it really doesn't matter right now. Beat Iowa, then we'll talk the rest of the year.

Visit Team Home Team Home WP% Expected Margin
Bowling Green Akron 49.1% -0.36
Colorado Arizona 80.1% 13.92
Notre Dame Arizona St. 43.3% -2.69
South Ala. Arkansas St. 61.1% 4.5
Texas A&M Auburn 73.9% 10.4
Northern Ill. Ball St. 54.7% 1.9
Louisville Boston College 36% -5.74
Hawaii Colorado St. 74.9% 10.95
Virginia Florida St. 75.4% 11.21
San Jose St. Fresno St. 34.4% -6.44
Tulane Houston 87.3% 19.32
Penn St. Indiana 25.8% -10.58
Iowa St. Kansas 32.4% -7.33
Toledo Kent St. 27.6% -9.64
Georgia Kentucky 33% -7.09
Alabama LSU 44.9% -2.07
Ohio St. Michigan St. 51.5% 0.61
Iowa Minnesota 33.7% -6.77
Boise St. New Mexico 20.5% -13.55
La.-Lafayette New Mexico St. 15.8% -16.71
Georgia Tech North Carolina St. 26.5% -10.22
Fla. Atlantic North Texas 41% -3.64
Michigan Northwestern 30% -8.47
Buffalo Ohio 48.4% -0.63
Baylor Oklahoma 49.7% -0.13
Washington St. Oregon St. 49.5% -0.19
Wisconsin Purdue 21.2% -13.1
UTSA Rice 72.6% 9.76
Idaho San Diego St. 73.7% 10.29
Marshall Southern Miss. 9.6% -22.45
Duke Syracuse 27.9% -9.48
Kansas St. TCU 63.9% 5.71
Memphis Temple 32.6% -7.24
West Virginia Texas 33.2% -6.99
Ga. Southern Texas St. 14.9% -17.44
Georgia St. Troy 60.4% 4.22
SMU Tulsa 79.2% 13.39
Louisiana Tech UAB 29.4% -8.76
Air Force UNLV 26.4% -10.25
Oregon Utah 31.4% -7.82
Florida Vanderbilt 18.2% -15.04
Clemson Wake Forest 14.7% -17.58
UCLA Washington 42.3% -3.1
UTEP Western Ky. 32.8% -7.18
Utah St. Wyoming 36.4% -5.58

* I'm 99% sure Bill Connelly uses a HFA and traditional regression methods for his F/+ projections, which explains how Minnesota is projected to win despite ranking 4 spots lower in F/+.

Bottles

After the debacle in Champaign-Urbana, this section should be nothing but grain alcohol. We won't go that far this week... yet.

What is the most appropriate bottle for HATEWEEK? Should it be a 1.75 of Hawkeye? Nah, we can't possibly usurp Vodka Samm's raison d'etre and besides, plastic handles don't count.

Bitter Neighbor Black IPA? That was last year's pick, and the results weren't too kind.

Iron City? I mean, Hayden Fry did pilfer other things from Pittsburgh...

Doppleganger? There are at least four different microbrews that make a beer with that title, which is too common for my tastes.

Templeton R-hahahahhahah nope.

No, as monsieurs Vint and Jacobi pointed out in the latest BHGPodcast, when Iowa and Minnesota look at each other across the field, they really see their reflection staring back at them. We've slowly but assuredly become the mirror image program, down to the same warts and complaints from the fanbase regarding just about everything. Appropriately enough, this week's HATE brew edition is Mirror Pond EPA, from Deschutes.

Drink up -- you're going to need that warmth for this bitterly cold tailgate.