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Happy New Year everyone! I'm here to get your NYD hangover started off proper with a heavy dose of Models to go along with your Bottles. The math induced headaches will throb with less intensity than the alcohol-related ones, I promise!
Models
No Top 25, since the context is no longer relevant now that it's bowl season. Speaking of that, how's M&B done so far?
Note: All winning percentages and margins are based upon the "home" team, even though all these games are neutral site. "Home" team in this case is whichever team was in the second column of my pre-built template since I'm a lazy bastard, and not the designated "home" per the bowls themselves.
| "Visiting" Team | "Home" Team | "Home" WP | Exp. Margin | Bowl (Date) | SU Winner? |
| Air Force | Western Michigan | 47.4 | -1.06 | 12/20/2014 | X |
| Colorado State | Utah | 48.3 | -0.67 | 12/20/2014 | |
| Nevada | Louisiana-Lafayette | 48 | -0.79 | 12/20/2014 | |
| South Alabama | Bowling Green | 30.3 | -8.31 | 12/20/2014 | |
| Utah State | UTEP | 46.4 | -1.46 | 12/20/2014 | X |
| Memphis | BYU | 35.2 | -6.08 | 12/22/2014 | X |
| Navy | San Diego State | 55.4 | 2.17 | 12/23/2014 | |
| Northern Illinois | Marshall | 69.2 | 8.07 | 12/23/2014 | X |
| Central Michigan | Western Kentucky | 70.3 | 8.63 | 12/24/2014 | X |
| Fresno State | Rice | 60.7 | 4.36 | 12/24/2014 | X |
| Illinois | Louisiana Tech | 66.3 | 6.78 | 12/26/2014 | X |
| Rutgers | North Carolina | 42.8 | -2.9 | 12/26/2014 | X |
| UCF | North Carolina State | 43.2 | -2.74 | 12/26/2014 | |
| Arizona State | Duke | 47.5 | -1.02 | 12/27/2014 | X |
| Boston College | Penn State | 39.5 | -4.27 | 12/27/2014 | |
| Nebraska | USC | 55.6 | 2.26 | 12/27/2014 | X |
| South Carolina | Miami (Florida) | 50.6 | 0.25 | 12/27/2014 | |
| Virginia Tech | Cincinnati | 55.1 | 2.05 | 12/27/2014 | |
| Arkansas | Texas | 29.3 | -8.79 | 12/29/2014 | X |
| Oklahoma | Clemson | 46.2 | -1.51 | 12/29/2014 | |
| West Virginia | Texas A&M | 47 | -1.21 | 12/29/2014 | |
| Louisville | Georgia | 62.3 | 5.04 | 12/30/2014 | X |
| Maryland | Stanford | 70.7 | 8.83 | 12/30/2014 | X |
| Notre Dame | LSU | 73.5 | 10.22 | 12/30/2014 |
*Just* ok.
Models and Bottles Refreshers!
Models and Bottles Refreshers!
Above .500 is nice and all, but I probably could have done just as well with a series of heuristics. Maybe.
Generally speaking, not a lot of crazy expected margins for bowl season as most of the teams are closely matched. Notable high win probabilities that turned out to be accurate were Arkansas over Texas (Bielema, you troll genius), LaTech over the Zookers because of course, Stanford besting Maryland and Marshall over Northern Illinois. By far the biggest swing and a miss was LSU/Notre Dame, and weirdly enough, Bowling Green over Southern Alabama.
On to the Citrus Bowl!
| Flex Model | |
| Gopher Win Probability | 50.2% |
| Predicted Margin of Victory | 0.06 |
| Current Vegas Spread | +4.5 |
| Current Vegas Over/Under | 47.5 |
A virtual PICK'EM! That's more favorable than the bookies by far, and the converse of Bill's projections which favor the Tigers by 1.4. I swear, this is not about whichever data nerd's model favors his preferred team -- just a difference in methodology. Regardless, this figures to be yet another closely fought contest for both squads, not that either is a stranger to such games. In terms of potential SEC bowl opponents, Missouri was easily the foe that provided the most compelling and competitive match-up.
As for the remainder of the bowls...
| "Visiting" Team | "Home" Team | "Home" WP | Exp. Margin | Bowl (Date) |
| Boise State | Arizona | 47.4 | -1.03 | 12/31/2014 |
| Georgia Tech | Mississippi State | 61.1 | 4.5 | 12/31/2014 |
| TCU | Mississippi | 39.7 | -4.19 | 12/31/2014 |
| Florida State | Oregon | 68.4 | 7.71 | 01/01/2015 |
| Michigan State | Baylor | 49.5 | -0.2 | 01/01/2015 |
| Missouri | Minnesota | 50.2 | 0.06 | 01/01/2015 |
| Ohio State | Alabama | 52.7 | 1.07 | 01/01/2015 |
| Wisconsin | Auburn | 55.4 | 2.15 | 01/01/2015 |
| Oklahoma State | Washington | 57.5 | 3.04 | 01/02/2015 |
| Pittsburgh | Houston | 43.5 | -2.6 | 01/02/2015 |
| Tennessee | Iowa | 53.2 | 1.28 | 01/02/2015 |
| UCLA | Kansas State | 68 | 7.55 | 01/02/2015 |
| Florida | East Carolina | 38.9 | -4.53 | 01/03/2015 |
| Arkansas State | Toledo | 51.3 | 0.52 | 01/04/2015 |
M&B hates the Noles but what else is new. Overall, a compelling slate of NYD6 and playoff match-ups save the aforementioned Ducks-Noles (which I think will be a close game regardless) and TCU-Ole Miss, where M&B loves the Horned Frogs as it has most of the year. Just what you'd like to see when you're lounging on the couch the next 3 days with a leftover bottle of bubbly.
Bottles
This is the Citrus Bowl, but I have a decided policy against any and all fruit beers. So that means no Shiner Ruby Redbird, Summer Shandy or the abominable Shock Top. Deal with it.
I'm half inclined to pick something from Boulevard in honor of our Missouri friends, but I don't want to go down that route just because Boulevard happens to be the biggest Missouri-based brewery I can think of and get up here in Minnesota. So I won't,
Instead, I'll go a different route. Here's the rundown:
Midnight Toast: Argyle Vintage Brut -- Great value option for the sparkling stuff.
Hair of the Dog: Weller 107 -- Because I'll need something strong.
Beer to Respect Thine Opponent: Fulton Worthy Adversary -- Imperial Stout after a sour mash? Why not?!?
Fear Beers: Whatever you got.
However you choose to celebrate the Citrus Bowl, make sure to stay safe friends. Cheers, Happy New Year and Ski-U-Mah!