***DISCLAIMER: Please note that the following analysis is not to be used for betting purposes because I'm the last person you want to come to for advice that involves money. I don't bet and I'm sure there will be comments almost immediately explaining why I'm wrong somehow. Consider this the non-betting fan's perspective.
If there is one thing I've noticed about Vegas and Jerry Kill's teams at Minnesota, it's that the models the sports books use seem to undervalue the Gophers a little bit. Some people get bent out of shape over it. Me? I laugh. So when I saw the early book over/under values for college football win totals I LOL'd a bit.
Minnesota: 5.5 wins
5.5 wins? So the over under is set at sub-bowl attendance level? Minnesota might not have the easiest schedule but I'd be comfortable with the over with this slate:
@ Colorado State
@ Ohio State
Of that list I'd be comfortable penciling in every non-TCU non conference game, @ Purdue, Illinois, and either @Northwestern/@Iowa as for sure wins (I actually see more wins than that but I'm simply trying to get to the over for now). I suppose I can maybe see where 5 Dimes is coming from. Minnesota beat Purdue and Northwestern by less than 1 score at home last year and now both games are on the road this year. Iowa is down but the Gophers haven't won at Kinnick in an amount of time that is painful to consider. And Michigan and Nebby likely get an edge over MN while also being a wildcard because of their new coaches.
Here's what 5 Dimes thinks of everyone else in the Big Ten:
Illinois: 3.5 wins
Indiana: 6 wins
Iowa: <null> Guess they gave up on forecasting Kirk?
Maryland: 4.5 wins
Michigan: 7.5 wins
Michigan State: 9.5 wins
Nebraska: 8 wins
Northwestern: 6.5 wins
Ohio State: 11 wins
Penn State: <null> Usually Purdue is the P school that doesn't exist...
Purdue: 4 wins
Rutgers: 5 wins
Wisconsin: 10 wins
Yea...Minnesota's win total isn't the only one that seems a little off here.