FanPost

We Don't Deserve It

This season has been something of a disappointment to most Gopher fans - your personal level of disappointment is a personal choice, and I'm not here to argue whether you should have been more or less frustrated, or how your expectations for this or next season should be defined. This is a pure analysis of what it would take for the Gophers to reach an APR bowl, assuming they lose to Wisconsin this weekend.

Which I think we all expect.

So I'm going to take a deeper look into what GopherNation wrote a short while back: what needs to happen for the Gophers to make an APR bowl.

I'll use the always reliable Wikipedia for the shortcut to the data. The facts:

  • As of today, there are 8 open bowl slots
  • There are 18 teams who need one more win to get to 6 wins
  • Eight of those 18 teams play each other this weekend, meaning at least four of those remaining bowl slots will be filled
  • The Gophers, assuming a L against Wisconsin, will then be one of 11 teams vying for four open slots.
  • The Gophers currently rank 3rd in APR, so of those four open slots, at most one can be claimed by a non-APR team.
  • Florida State, Louisiana-Monroe and New Mexico State are also possible threats as they each have two games remaining. One loss for any of those three removes them from bowl eligibility.

So how do we cheer?

  • FSU to lose one of Florida, Louisiana-Monroe (FSU -5 v. Fla)
  • Louisiana-Monroe to lose one of arkansas-state, FSU (LM +8 v. Ark. St.)
  • New Mexico State to lose one of Idaho or S. Alabama.
  • Temple v. Tulsa - root for Tulsa
  • Tulane v. SMU (-8) - root for SMU
  • Duke (+12) v. Wake Forest - root for Wake Forest
  • Georgia Tech v. Georgia (-11)- root for Georgia
  • Purdue v. Indiana - doesn't matter; one wins to get to 6-6. Root for whoever you like.
  • Texas Tech (+10.5) v. Texas - root for Texas
  • Louisiana Tech (-1.5) v. UTSA - root for UTSA
  • Middle Tennessee State v. Old Dominion - doesn't matter; one wins to get to 6-6. Root for whoever you like.
  • Buffalo (+3.5) v. Ohio - root for Ohio
  • UNLV (+3) v. Nevada - root for Nevada
  • California v. UCLA - doesn't matter; one wins to get to 6-6. Root for whoever you like.
  • Colorado v. Utah - doesn't matter; one wins to get to 6-6. Root for whoever you like.

Rooting aside, what is the likelihood that of this long list, all the stars align for an APR bowl? I don't see the Gophers having a great chance. Of all the games listed, only one can go against the Gophers; any more than that and we're looking to '18 after this weekend.

For a team that needs the practice, though, I'm still rooting as described above. Because I think the odds of everything above aligning for us are still higher than us beating Wisconsin.

Feel free to let me know of any errors in the comments.

Go Gophers. Ski-U-Mah.

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